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Pax Americhina or Chinamerca? - La Temps/Switzerland

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Tierra_y_Libertad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 09:08 AM
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Pax Americhina or Chinamerca? - La Temps/Switzerland
I have a feeling that all this wooing of China as a partner is to keep them loaning us money so what's left of the economy doesn't collapse entirely. But, if such an alliance were formed would they call it "Oceania"?

http://watchingamerica.com/News/32208/united-states-china-the-new-g2/

Will the Pacific Ocean be the epicenter of this new century? To hear Barack Obama tell it, such a development is inevitable. “The relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century,” declared the American president as he inaugurated a “strategic and economic dialogue” designed to reinforce cooperation between the two countries. At first glance, the prediction is not particularly audacious. The rise to power of the planet’s most populous country is ineluctable (China will soon be the second largest world economy) and the United States will remain the sole global superpower for many years to come.

The two countries are the principal polluters of the planet and have both been hit strongly by the economic crisis. There is a certain logic to the collaboration of these two mastodons in order to boost commerce and at the same time fight against global warming. Some in the United States want to believe in the necessity of a G2 that would drive the world, harmoniously, rather than an agonizing G8. The Chinese media are calling for an era of Pax Americhina or Chinamerica that would dominate the geopolitics of the 21st century.

Is this scenario realistic? It is doubtful. While Beijing and Washington might share the same strategy for economic growth since China’s joining of the market economy, their political visions remain essentially antagonistic. 2009 marks the thirtieth anniversary of a normalization of relations that resulted in global relief despite a few passing cold spots. Still, suspicion is alive and well on both sides of the Pacific and the risks of confrontation are as numerous as the reasons to collaborate.

And besides, would such a G2 be desirable? Certainly not. Must we recall that capitalism’s current failure is also explained by a crisis of over-consumption for which the Sino-American couple is in large part responsible? After the binary world of the Cold War and the end of the illusion of the American “hyperpower” of the Bush years, the time has come for multilateralism and for a G20 including the ensemble of major world actors. While it is true that “Chinese-American relations will shape the 21st century,” Barack Obama himself has added–and it is all in this nuance–that this places them “among the most important bilateral relations in the world.” No more, no less.
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1handclapn Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 09:20 AM
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1. how about...Chimera, i guess we will know when they demand we immigrate half a Billion Chinese to
pay off the debt...?
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Dang it! You beat me to it . . .
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 09:59 AM
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2. The three party game is more stable than the two party game
When there are three players, the weaker two combine forces to weaken the strongest. The alliance shifts as one of the weaker two becomes the strongest.

The more promising arrangement would be the US, China and EU as the top tier of roughly equal powers. Russia, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil, etc, particpate in preserving the balance.
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1handclapn Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. 1984...
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. Bi-polar geopolitical regimes are inherently unstable, they tend to collapse to a uni-polar regime.
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tocqueville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 10:21 AM
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3. the US is making AGAIN the wrong choice
it chooses raw capitalism over the Enlightenment values. Money talks over values. China must be contained as long it isn't a democracy.
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1handclapn Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. we have a Fascist Government, controlled by Coporatist yellow running dogs.,we've no say in anything
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. +1, I agree.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-01-09 12:40 PM
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7. I forsee a "balance of power" between the US, China, and India
Edited on Sat Aug-01-09 12:49 PM by Odin2005
That's not unusual in the greater scheme of things, as another poster said, tri-polar situations are very stable. What is unusual is that these three are the "Universal Empires" of 3 Civilizations, for the first time in human history we have 3 civilization-encompassing states in a developing geopolitical balance of power.


IMO Russia is screwed in the long term; declining population, peak oil and gas, ethnic tensions, and Chinese ambitions for Siberian resources makes it a likely possibility for a break-up of Russia.

Latin America will be a zone of intense cultural and socioeconomic development as it emerges as a mature civilization, but there won't be much in the way of imperialistic power politics from within Latin America itself, as is typical it will be the victim of outside imperialism (mostly US, but increasingly China).

Africa will continue being the world's socioeconomic basket-case.

The Islamic world will continue to be a zone of struggle between a pro-West intelligentsia and anti-West popular sentiment. Things will become explosive in Saudi Arabia, the Oil Sheikdoms, and Iraq when the oil starts running out, however.
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