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It makes a bunch of simultaneous and unstated presumptions. It's been known for a long time that if all you want is the "piece of paper" your local college or even community college may be all you want. Drop out rates, or graduation rates, have more to do with the "motivation" of the students than anything else. Students may be far more motivated at more expensive schools to "get the degree". Also, it is true of almost anything that just because it cost 5 times as much, doesn't mean it is 5 times as good. Just as the last 10% of achievement often takes 90% of the effort, The last 90% of the cost often only gets you 10% increase in performance. A Jag isn't all that much better than a Camray, but it cost significantly more. There are minimum standards for certain things.
That all said, I'm still willing to agree that there is an "education bubble" out there and it is darn close to bursting. Even state schools are getting quite full and around here, many students are going to "4 year" community college programs because it is vastly more "affordable". There will always be Harvards out there. But states themselves may get tired of paying "top tier" prices for their state college campus.
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