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Edited on Tue Jun-30-09 06:28 PM by Davis_X_Machina
And the Democratic 'majority' is not a majority. It's a plurality, of about 40 votes. Beyond that, it splits. And it's not always Blue Dogs splitting,
At any given time we have in the US four or five parties, but only two labels. American politics is coalition politics.
A generation or two ago, you had an informal alliance between the remains of the Southern Democrats and the GOP, over the war in Vietnam and civil rights that kept a paper Democratic majority from doing all it wanted to, or could have.
A generation or two before that you had an informal alliance between Bull Moose goo-goo reformist Republicans and populist Democrats that kept the McKinley Republicans from doing all their majorities seemed to entitle them to do.
Fracturing a ruling coalition doesn't move legislation, but it can stop legislation quite easily. In six months, Obama won't be able to do anything, because a righto-leftist Congressional bloc, while unable to do anything, will be able to stop everything. You saw the bloc begin to emerge on the supplemental budget vote. You saw it start to emerge on ACES, where Kucinich and DeFazio voted with Boehner. ACES passed by one (1) vote. The next big 'Democratic' bill may not pass at all -- thanks to Democrats.
This country is backwards from Europe. In Europe you fight the election, then form the coalition. Here you form the coalition, then fight the election.
And all coalitions can be split. Any coalition large enough to govern will have at least one fault line along which it will split.
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