Is Hillary going to fade?

[jcrew2001]

It seems Hillary's front running status will now fade, just like old man McCain. Does anyone think that Obama will now over take her as the front-runner, he has all the ingredients - a wide/vast donor support net and its growing everyday.

Hillary's donors seem to be shrinking and capped off, espcially since most of them have already donated the maximum. I don't see many new people joining her campaign.

I think now the media will turn on Hillary - and it won't be a bad thing for her, frontrunners can't grow there support and she was always a paper champion. Now she can 'prove' herself as a candidate to the voters. I doubt she'll be successful, but it would improve her image as an icy, elitist.

[sallyseven]

1. NO NO NO

I do not think your accurate. Stop day dreaming.

[uppityperson]

2. I think she will age gracefully.

[napi21]

3. No, but I think over the next several months Clinton & Obama will destroy each other,

and others like Edwards and Richardson will be the leaders going into the primaries.

The same thing will happen in the Pub party. McCain is already gone, Rudy & Romney will destroy each other too. Since it seems the Pubs aren't happy with their current crop of candidates, who knowswhat will happen there!

[Bucky]

7. Kind of like how Rosie and the Donald have destroyed each other?

This idea of the big players "destroying each other" is straight out of the Godzilla movies. In real life marketing, a big power feud helps both parties and only does lasting damage to the intellectual honesty of the debate process itself.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. new-tone's colors will rise.

But the OP makes a mistake in tense. She HAS already begun to fade. Her best bet was being considered invincible, push out all but the fringe competition, then work to recover all the ground she has lost with her base at the same time as she triangulated further to the right and far right positions.

She can't do that anymore. NOW is the time for Plan B - except that there was no Plan B. While historians may point to the release of $$$$ figures as the point when her condidacy hit the shoals like a cruise ship, I think that happened last year, when she refused to apologize for her vote on IraqNam. Hillary's political consultants proceeded to take several, nuanced, even contradictory positions, as she tried them out like Condi tries on shoes. With the same result.

[loudsue]

39. She still has those DLC advisors on board...they ARE her "base".

The DLC were a one-hit recording group, and they haven't gotten over themselves, even as the rest of the country moved on beyond the "post Reagan" era. They are DINOsauers, who helped push this country so far to the right that we're in the mess we're currently in.

The sooner we get away from media-induced rock-star love fests in politics, and get into some REAL issues of governing, the better off we're going to be. If we don't do it pretty damned soon, this country is going to fall hard.

:kick:

[hogwyld]

13. Wouldn't is be great if the pukes cannibalized each other

And just sat out the 2008 elections? Hey, a person can dream can't they?????

[Missy M]

4. Simple answer - NO!!!!!

[Captain Hilts]

5. No. nt

[Bucky]

6. No one with $36mil and a big fat rolodex *fades*. I don't think she'll win, but

that is far from inevitable. She's got mile-wide support. I think much of it is only inches deep, but it's still mile wide. People are hungry for a real leader and many people are deeply impressed by a Democrat who can elbow up $26million from fat cats. They like her experience, her intelligence, and her last name. They want a president who has the great Bill Clinton as a top advisor. I have to admit she's a real package of a candidate and I won't cry if she's elected president.

But all in all, I really hope she flops this coming February.

[ThomWV]

8. Hillary ... who?

[zulchzulu]

10. It's way, way, way, way, way too early to tell...

Nobody (except political junkies like us) is even following the race yet. Wait until next winter.

[Donnachaidh]

11. wishfull thinking?

:eyes:

[ThomWV]

18. If I and many others wish it long enough and hard enough it will happen

This ain't like prayer ....

[skipos]

12. I expect the Clinton machine to go into full on attack Obama mode

now that it is obvious he is a threat. I'd love to see Hillary fade, as the only thing she is better at than the other candidates is getting large checks. I think she'll be around for awhile, but I am hoping that most Democrats realize how much better Obama, Richardson or Edwards would be as candidates and Presidents.

[CookCountyResident]

31. Agreed

but it's way too early yet for anybody to go into full attack time. The public - yes, the avg. American who gets his or her news in 15 sec. sound bites - will go into "turn off" mode, if the full court press goes into play too soon.

[Nedsdag]

54. She must be careful.

If she goes into full attack mode it can truly backfire on her.

[ComerPerro]

14. fade, yes, but it is complicated

it won't be becasue people just stop supporting her. A lot of her lead right now is name recognition, much like Obamas. But once the other candidates get more popularity, I think that many who vote for her or Obama for name recognition will be most likely to get behind another candidate. Even if the "name recognition" group is split evenly among all candidates, with Clinton retaining an equal share, she will still fade becasue she will be losing a lot of votes that her name has been winning her.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

15. This entire primary things looks random to an outsider like me.

In 2004, there were a number of candidates who made the news regularly and then... Kerry? :wtf: is John Kerry?

Then again, I repeat, I live elsewhere. He may have had lots of national coverage before I didn't know of.

[jcrew2001]

32. Kerry and Lieberman have decades of senate service

so it was not a surprise and widely expected that Kerry had the best chance to win the Dem nomination. After 9/11/01 I was at a bar with some friends and we were watching Fox News and Kerry was giving an interview, but he was on vacation in Hawaii. I said Kerry will be running for president in 2004, and my friend made a joke that he had no chance because he was in Hawaii.

Turns out that image of Kerry as a rich elitist vacationing in expensive cities was accurate, i.e. martha's vineyard, vail, etc.

Dean's quick fame came out of nowhere - I'm predicting Obama will fade as well.

[Tesha]

16. One can only hope... (NT)

[Demeter]

17. Self-Destruction Is Far More Likely

We've seen tendencies of that already.

[lutefisk]

25. If that happens- better before than than after the nomination

The media and the GOP are on her side now, and she is still less than impressive. If she gets the nomination, the media and the GOP will unleash the (attack) hounds. I just don't think she'll make it very far once that happens.

I really wish she would stay a Democratic Senator from New York. Of course if she doesn't get the nomination, I wonder how much longer she'll want to be a Senator from New York???

[Forrest Greene]

19. If She Does

...they will simply dye her.

[CoffeeCat]

20. In my mind...Hillary faded a long time ago...

Hillary is my last choice for the Dem nomination.

She was toeing the BushCo line on Iran a few weeks back.

Plus, she's been silent on too many critical issues--while BushCo
destroys the Constitution and enjoys the rotten fruit of his
dictatorship.

Hillary was never a clear choice for me.

[Forkboy]

21. I think that's completely delusional.

[peacetalksforall]

22. Will the DLC disappear?

[Lil Missy]

30. Will the DLC disappear? And, is that good or bad?

I'm not sure myself. I'm just asking.

[peacetalksforall]

51. If the DLC exists, Hillary will exist.

If Hillary wins, we will continue to be a war nation, so it appears.

I have not heard one thing she has done to position herself against bombing Iran and helping it to not be bombed. Now is as important as down the road.

[Bake]

23. Frankly, I think Obama's more likely to fade.

And for the record, NO, I am not a "Hillaryista" or whatever they call Hillary supporters. I'm not one.

I do think, however, that HRC has known for a long time what she was doing, and has this thing planned out precisely. I doubt Obama has. He's the "rock star" right now, and he raised a lot of cash in the first quarter, but it's a long, long race, and I don't see him having the legs or the substance for the long run.

Bake

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

24. I don't think she'll succeed in "triangulating" her way into the nomination.

I think the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left to tolerate another Master of Pandering. There's a lot more "Where's the Beef" rather than "Politics as Usual" out there.

[Radical Activist]

26. I hope Hillary is the media-declared front runner until the Iowa caucus.

Just like Dean. When she comes in third in Iowa then her campaign will effectively be over.

People already know Hillary. She has little to no room to grow. The other candidates are still introducing themselves to voters in early primary states.

[Lex]

27. I think Edwards will overtake Clinton as time passes.

Not so sure about Obama.

I think Edwards will take the nomination in the final analysis.

[jcrew2001]

52. I think Edwards is our only chance

Whenever Obama or Hillary is polled against Rudy/McCain, they both lose.

[BlueManDude]

28. Obama and Hillary are both utterly un-electable

I feel like the party is patting itself on the back whilst marching off a cliff.

[Lil Missy]

29. Too early to tell. A lot can happen in the next year.

And I am ever mindful that Dean was considered to be a foregone conclusion at this point in the game in the 2004 primary. Boy, did that go to hell in a handbasket when it came to actual votes.

[PhilipShore]

33. No, she will get plenty of funding $$$ from the GOP, especially in swing states n/t

[Captain Hilts]

45. They're too busy funding Al Sharpton and Ralph Nader. nt

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

34. I think so.

This election's Joe Lieberman.

[Alexander]

35. No, she will burn out when people get tired of her.

No matter what nasty, untrue things certain HRC supporters will say about me (and other real liberals), the people just don't want her as president. We will see a spectacular demonstration of that in the coming months.

[mdmc]

36. Clinton / Obama 2008 imho

I wish something else could happen. No one can challenge her. We have two "newbies" (Obama n Edwards) that want to be the new hotties to replace the broken oldies, but I doubt they can do much but run for veep. Of course Wes Clark or Richardson would make much better veeps under Hillary...

[jcrew2001]

47. Newbies? - Edwards is not

Edwards was elected in 1998, two years before Hillary in the Senate. His 6 years in the Senate is equal to Hillary's 6 years so far.

So, in terms of ACTUAL Legislative experience, Edwards has been around 2 years longer!!!

[rinsd]

37. You're very wrong. I'm just not sure if its deliberate

"Hillary's donors seem to be shrinking"

Based on what? We have 1st Q numbers that is it. She has 50,000 donors which is the 2nd most in the entire field right now.

"and capped off, espcially since most of them have already donated the maximum."

Where did you get this information? 80% of her donation were $100 or less. She did make a big push for people to donate the max and many have but she still has plenty of resources to tap.

"I don't see many new people joining her campaign."

In what sense? volunteers? Your local Cliton for Prez office?

The rest of your post is standard anti-Hillary boiler plate.

[jcrew2001]

48. Compared to Obama's campaign

His is growing exponentially. Most of what I wrote is unsubstantiated, but I wanted a debate about her campaign prospects. My point is that most Democrat voters know Hillary and for some reason, they are choosing to go to Obama or Edwards. That is a very serious concern for the HRC campaign. People are donating to Barack instead of Her, its a serious question that deserves a quick solution, otherwise, it will be a long, bumpy road for Hillary come the fall.

[jazzjunkysue]

38. The only new press she can get from this point on is bad press. Her

biggest problem is we already know her, and so her numbers can't rise.

As Edwards becomes more familiar, he'll pick up both Hilary and Obama's votes and win.

Look at the treatment Nancy got from trying out the big boy's place. That tells you this country isn't ready for any woman.

[mmonk]

40. Uhhhmm. On what basis do you ask this?

Seems like a flamebait without a link. Otherwise, state your case using examples.

[jcrew2001]

53. 100,000 donors to Hillary's 50,000

is a big, very big indicator of Hillary's weakness in making herself the frontrunner.

She's missing something and if she can't fix the problem, she's not going to win.

If we've known her for 16 years and still don't like her, thats a very serious cause for concern.

Can Hillary bounce back like Kerry - very possible.

[cooolandrew]

41. As the guy on politically direct said Obama is phenomenon never seen before in poltics. WTG Barack.

[loudsue]

42. I still want Clark. We need someone like him to turn this mess around.

Clark can do that, and WOULD do that, if given the chance.

:kick:

[Captain Hilts]

46. Hell yeah. At this point, I think he's being smart by not jumping in yet. nt

[jcrew2001]

49. Is Clark on team Clinton?

This is a very debatable question.

[buddinganarchist]

43. She will, hopefully.

You don't have a plan to get us out of Iraq, you refuse to align yourself with single payer health insurance, you deserve to fall.

[Demeter]

50. Well Said.

Moneyisn't enough--Democrats want specific changes, and soon as possible, because the country is DYING.

[saltpoint]

44. Voters will not officially decide until mid-January of next year.

I expect the polls to rollercoaster between now and then, and while frontrunners have more to lose ostensibly than others, any candidate's standing might be enhanced or lessened by events.

It may be that candidates rise or fall less of their own volition than as a result of a confluence of circumstances they really can't control.

Right now the polls claim Rudy Giuliani is the preference of a majority of GOP primary voters. I find him appalling, and will likely find him even more appalling if he survives the next 9 months. I can't even see him entering the Iowa caucus -- I can't see Iowa Republicans choosing Giuliani as their most logical first-choice Republican. What is he going to do -- don hip boots and wade through those pig farms, pretending to be a pro-ethanol conservative? How many Republican yahoos voting in the Iowa caucus will stand in townhalls listening to Rudy but all along wondering why he's on his third marriage? I bet quite a few.

We have a dozen or so Democrats who look awfully good next to the GOP field. They look great, in fact. The polls will come and go, and the first official tally will be in Iowa on caucus night. We'll have a much better idea of all our candidates' futures after that evening.