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It is always questionable as to how seriously any threat from North Korea should be taken. On the one hand, the issuance of ominous threats of apocalyptic combat to come is the North Korean stock in trade, having been done with great regularity since the onset of the Korean War Armistice in 1953. On the other hand, the Korean DMZ remains one of the most dangerous geopolitical tripwires on earth, with thousands of armed men facing off over the world’s largest mine field. There is an element of the surreal to all of this, the capital of South Korea, Seoul still has daily air-raid drills, and there are several hundred, if not thousand North Korean artillery pieces targeting this city of several million people at any time. In essence the war here has never truly ended, just become a little more laid-back, having descended from outright slaughter to an exchange of insults and threats, with a few North Korean kidnappings and shootings to punctuate an already tense situation.
The problem with Kim’s most recent outbursts is that it is unclear what he may have to gain from further provocation. He has effectively ruined the six-party talks that were entrusted to come to a resolution of the current problems on the peninsula, has antagonized Japan to the point of considering the repudiation of their pacifist constitution, alienated a formerly friendly South Korean government, whose “Sunshine” policy had attempted for a gradual reconciliation between South and North, and has insulted his major benefactor, the People’s Republic of China with his continued nuclear testing, despite Chinese assurances to the contrary. In essence, Kim has systematically been burning his bridges for a long time, making one wonder as to the man’s sanity.
Indeed, the state of the mental health of the North Korean leadership is the key, and most perplexing question in this whole mix. Kim may well be, (unlike a majority of the dictators we have recently dealt with) quite insane. If so, this factor, combined with his seeming absolute power within North Korea make for an almost hopeless diplomatic situation. If Kim is mad, then there can be no logical extrapolation of his actions, because logic will have no meaning for him, and that which we would consider to be a rational choice and motivations, will be immaterial for him. Furthermore, the absolute nature of the Stalinist state, makes back-channel negotiation with North Korea impossible. Like it or not, we’re stuck dealing with “Dear Leader” regardless of his mental state.
Which brings us to the situation at hand, Kim’s most recent threat. There has been talk that if a North Korean freighter, bound for Myanmar is stopped and searched, (as the local nations have vowed to do) that North Korea will retaliate with missile tests, including a firing of their medium-range Taipodong missiles toward Hawaii. Considering that the Taipodongs have by nature been extremely dodgey as to their reliability and accuracy, the threat to the Hawaiian Islands is probably minimal, in fact, it is likely that if the missle is launched, it may not even make it over the Sea of Japan. Nevertheless the Obama Administration has “strengthened the defenses” surrounding Hawaii in anticipation of such an event. (What exactly this means is open to speculation) More ominously however, could be an attack or series of attacks of one form or another against South Korea, bringing the South Koreans and their U.S. allies to the brink of war. As the North Korean Army, antiquated as its weapons may be, outnumbers its opponents by a considerable number, the use of nuclear weapons to halt a North Korean advance has likely been considered, a fact which has doubtlessly tacitly been shared with both Pyongyang and Beijing. While such a deterrent may or may not give Kim pause, the massive economic implications of a second Korean War, with the mass dislocations of North Korean refugees into Manchuria, not to mention the horrific possibilities of nuclear conflict, are not likely to be lost on the Chinese, who cannot help but note how such a war will do irreparable damage to their bottom line, as well as cause serious internal problems in their state which is already attempting to weather the current global economic crisis.
Under the circumstances, Beijing may well have to act as the fulcrum of this whole mess. The U.S. is committed to its regional allies, South Korea and Japan. The North Koreans are pursuing their own agenda, which they have already shown to be independent and irrespective of China’s foreign policy goals. However, Kim relies on China for both fuel and backing, if the Chinese see fit to do nothing, it may be interpreted in North Korean circles as an invitation for further belligerence. However, should the Chinese choose to act, it may complete Kim’s sense of isolation, which will either cause him to back down, or gamble it all in one last suicidal gamble. And make no mistake, the initiation of war on the Korean Peninsula, as awful and unspeakable as it might be, would be the end of North Korea. A sobering thought as we progress through the 59th year of the still-unconcluded Korean War.
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