Iran - the next important stage will not be the streets, it will be the technicians

[grantcart]

Having seen popular rebellions up close I have learned that the 'street' phase quickly passes in importance. Street demonstrations will continue but other actions by the opposition are now even more important.

The regime has shown that it is willing to order people to shoot to kill their own, and the opposition has shown that it is willing to get shot.

After the initial confrontation in the streets a popular rebellion will now move onto three seperate fronts:

1) Divide the establishment

Dissent among the elite will start to make overatures to people in the military to start cooperating with the popular front. None of these bureacracies, including the Army or the Revolutionary Guards are monolithic. Elites that already have relationships will start feeling out commanders who are willing to hold their troops back, or in some cases come over to the opposition. At this point the local commander of the tank brigade has more power than the senior general.

2) General Strike
If the regime uses force to control the streets then the people will let them have the streets and simply stay home for a general strike.

3) Technical Sabotage
Modern communities are complex organisms. If the regime is truely resented by the entire urban elite and middle class then they will now have to worry about sabotage. Sabotage in Iran could be simply done by shutting down their oil industry. Simply sabotaging the pump station at the port will cause their lifeblood to freeze.

But the easiest pressure point for opposition parties to bring down the regime will be if they can take their power generators off grid. It is in the hand of a relatively small number of technicians who are usually members of municipal unions in a private state enterprise. Even sporadic cuts in electiricity can have a chilling effect. They signal the entire nation that the regime is vulnerable and that there is widespread solidarity. The sabotage can usually done in such a way that the political leaders cannot determine who exactly is doing it.

Nothing will make those in the police and the military question whether or not they are on the right side of history more than to see the lights go out.

If the opposition in Iran is well organized look to see for disruptions in electrical supply as the next visible stage in challenging power to the regime.

[Kaleko]

1. Very interesting.

Thanks for this.

[bstender]

2. one tiny problem

The "green revolution" has been presented to you as an indigenous rebellion by the people when in fact it was manufactured by Western spies in concert with elite power-grabbers within. They did a damn clever job of whipping up the students by claiming fraud, but the facts will come out and the majority of Iranians want the perpetrators swinging from the gallows. Didnt they tell you that on CNN? oh, that's right, Western media was a tool in that campaign, (again).

[Zynx]

3. Maybe you are behind the times but the government even acknowledged a large

scale ballot-box stuffing problem.

[bstender]

9. do share

[anigbrowl]

11. Link to NPR story

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105742718

The Guardian Council, in preliminary findings about the election, announced on Monday that in some cases vote totals around the country did exceed the total number of registered voters, but that this happened in "only 50 cities.")

Rather stunningly, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani — a fiercely conservative partisan who, nonetheless, was a backer of Ahmadinejad's conservative opponent in the June 12 election, Mohsen Rezai — has declared that the vote may be suspect. Here's what he said:

"The Guardian Council should use every possible means to build trust and convince the protestors that their complaints will be thoroughly looked into. A majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election result is different from what was officially announced. The opinion should be respected and a line should be drawn between them and the rioters and miscreants. ... Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate."

[bstender]

14. "the vote may be suspect?"

coming from one of his opponents? The statistics thing is easy to spin, but here is a contrary (and non-corporate) analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/karroubis-unlucky-7s.html

The problem with the fraud is that it would require a massive internal conspiracy and THEN, they would have to completely blow it by overdoing it to the point of raising suspicion. (note that the charge of fraud was levied by Mousavi, before any statistics or even results, were known.) It is just as likely that he wanted to call for fraud as part of an effort to create this protest. and note that he has only called for a re-vote. odd i think, a recount or an investigation would be the usual next steps.

[anigbrowl]

15. I think you can guess the significant bit is the # of votes exceeding the # of registered voters .nt

[bstender]

17. not necessarily significant

it sounds impossible, so it "must be cheating"? but assuming this is even correct, current and straight from the govt. at all, what about out of district voting? what about messed up voter rolls? i mean come on, you're accusing a major modern nation of a massive conspiratorial fraud. which is far fetched enough, and then they botched it so thoroughly that the people knew instantly, the evidence is just laying open everywhere.

i can think of nothing but something akin to islamophobia in the eagerness to believe everything presented so far with nothing except statistical conjecture a week after the fact. especially when there is an alternative explanation which only asks you to believe that external and/or internal agents conspired to inspire protests and succeeded. (and dont forget the USA has a 400 million dollar budget to destabilize Iran) How often does the CIA sit back and let countries choose their own path? especially countries that are non-compliant? Did you catch the part about 30,000 messages, in english, from 3 new twitter accounts in a few days? not just a tad suspicious?

[anigbrowl]

18. Please do not put words in my mouth

I have been observing the developments rather than getting caught up in them, and have noted your repeated points on these topics. You asked for more information about a recent development (Iranian admissions of unusual voting patterns) and I supplied some for your convenience. It is a waste of both your time and mine to attempt to bait me into an argument.

[bstender]

23. thanks for the info

no baiting intended. just making my case. time will tell what the full truth is, likely a little of everything and a few more things we havent thought of yet!

[jeanpalmer]

19. The government has not recognized ballot box stuffing

They identified 50 balloting locations where the total vote exceeded the registered voters in that location. But in Iran, voters can vote in an area other than the one they are registered in. This is a common practice.

"Kadkhodaei further explained that the voter turnout of above 100% in some cities is a normal phenomenon because there is no legal limitation for people to vote for the presidential elections in another city or province to which people often travel or commute.

"According to the Guardian Council spokesman, summering areas and places like district one and three in Tehran are not separable.

"The spokesman, however, said that the vote tally affected by such issues could be over 3 million and would not noticably affect the outcome of the election. He, however, added that the council could, at the request of the candidates, re-count the affected ballot boxes, and determine " whether the possible change in the tally is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline."

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/98711.htm?sectionid=351020101

[tekisui]

5. "when in fact it was manufactured by Western spies in concert with elite power-grabbers within"

Can you prove these "facts"?

[bstender]

10. lemme guess

if can't prove them, they are then false? (just like you can't prove there was any fraud)

of course i cannot prove it, but there are two sets of empirical data, one of which looks to make much more sense than the other:

on my side:
1. USA has had an active covert program of destabilization against Iran for two years and this is the possible fruit of that.
2. Mousavi declared fraud before the election was even over, with no apparent evidence.
3. No evidence of fraud has yet to be presented.
4. A conspiracy of this size to steal the vote is extremely difficult if not impossible
4.1 If you could put together this conspiracy to steal the vote, including one of the opposition candidates, why would you overdo it so? (you wouldnt)
5. The majority of people in Iran DO support Ahmadinejad, the results aren't surprising to experts on Iran
6. Three anonoymus twitter accounts were set up that first day and sent thousands of tweets, full of wild rumors and exhortations to protest the "fraud".
7. This "color revolution" follows the CIA template used in central europe at least twice prior
8. Rafsanjani is a nexus of the opposition, stands to gain greatly in an overthrow of Khamenei, has direct link to the students and the pro-western elite within Iran. In collusion with NED-type orgs, you have motive, means and opportunity.

opposing this is yes, some seriously large marches in the streets, but based on a likely lie. The west has been fed a steady stream of propoganda and lies against Iran as an axis of evil and terrorist state and Ahmadenijad, saying he wants Israel wiped off the map and denies the holocaust etc.for several years now. Add to that a full court press by the mainstream media and the ever present belief amongst Americans that "everyone wants to be like America", and you end up with a narrative that appears to make sense, even if it is devoid of any proof or even likelihood whatsoever.

so i cant prove it, but it has the necessary "follow the money" earmarks and fits the historical narrative better than a revolution out of nowhere.

[tekisui]

13. People willing to die in the streets vs. an oppressive theocracy...

I will side with the people every time. They may not be protesting against what we think they are or should be protesting. That doesn't change the fact that they are putting their lives at risk against an oppressive theocracy. I find the claim that the CIA is all powerful and effectively using thousands of people as puppets for their own aims a big stretch based on many assumptions.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. Rambling Nonsense

And ridiculously circular logic.
GAC

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

7. Suuuure, right. And everybody the Brazilian military dictatorship killed in the 60s/70s

were communist spies.

Go to hell.

[supernova]

8. wow that's some big case of paranoia you got going on

:crazy:

[Duer 157099]

4. Well hopefully the really died-in-the-wool theocrats

will have sufficiently rejected modern technology and so won't really know what to do.

It will only be those science-y types who have enough know-how to keep the grid going.

[tekisui]

6. 1 and 2 are in the works.

I will pay attention to the utilities.

[grantcart]

22. Utililities are really the front line

When the regime takes out the media cutting electricity becomes the new newspaper

[anigbrowl]

12. Interesting as usual Grantcart

an interesting contrast is with pro-Thaksin Sinawatra protests in Thailand, which have attracted huge crowds but lost the political initiative some time ago.

Back in Iran, it seems pretty significant to me that Rafsanjani spent the weekend in Qom; it seems increasingly obvious that he's lobbying for some major changes. This is OK by me since he's a pretty pragmatic individual who is focused more on functioning institutions than ideology.

For those who don't know, Rafsanjani (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akbar_Hashemi_Rafsanjani) is a former president of Iran and is head of the 'council of experts' (which has the authority to remove even the Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Khomeini; you could say it's like an Islamic version of the Supreme Court). Qom is the holiest place in Iran, and since Iran's government is ultimately theocratic in nature Qom is where the political action is.

[arcadian]

16. How have you seen popular uprisings up close?

[shadowknows69]

21. Said this just yesterday. If it is clear that the IRG and some serious hardware

Will be brought to bear, then there is no reason for people to line up to be slaughtered. It's time to take to the hills and organize. Secure communication should probably be their first priority.