Reports: Iran's Clerics Considering Removal of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad

[tekisui]

Source: IBTimes

Iran's clerical establishment is considering scrapping the position of the Supreme Leader, currently held by Ayatollah Khamenei and forcing out President Ahmadinejad according to reports.

The country's Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts is reported to be considering the formation of a collective leadership to replace the position of supreme leader, according to Al Arabiya, citing sources in the holy city of Qom.

Both groups are headed by former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a key rival to Ayatollah Khamenei and a strong supporter of defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

On Saturday five members of Rafsanjani's family were arrested for taking part in demonstrations against the controversial re-election of President Ahmadinejad. They have subsequently been released.

The Assembly of Experts, a body of Islamic clerics, is responsible for overseeing the Supreme Leader and can even remove the Supreme Leader should they decide to. The Expediency Council is responsible for mediating disputes between the parliament elected by the people and the unelected Guardian Council.

Members of the Assembly of Experts are reported to be considering making changes to the Iranian system of government that would be the biggest since Ayatollah Khomeini set up the Islamic system in the revolution of 1979, by removing the position of the supreme leader.

Secret meetings are said to have taken place in Qom and included a representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most prominent Shiite leader in Iraq.

more: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20090622/iran-cleric-rafsanjani-khamenei-ahmadinejad.htm

[WilliamPitt]

1. Reputable source?

I don't know it.

[tekisui]

2. I don't know either, I was hoping someone would let me know.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

3. I'm looking to find information on this source but can't seem to find any.

I just get links to IB Times.

[shadowknows69]

6. Beats me but if true...Whoa!

Would that just be a removal in name only to placate the masses? And are they thinking of still having a President or have they just decided to discard the figurehead charade altogether?

[JackRiddler]

16. Hmm... Everything says "standard business sheet" but I did find out...

the Publisher is one Etienne Uzac, with almost no hits on him/her, except apparently for a strong Christian profession. (Try: Name+Christian to see for yourself).

The About Us and other company specific info is standard and not very informative.

Does not seem to be publicly traded.

Anyone with more expertise know where to do business ownership and PR searches?

[bananas]

24. I see one biased story right away

This is their #1 Top Rated story:

Iran "a total mess" says top UN nuclear inspector

17 June 2009 @ 09:53 am BSTNext Global News Article

Iran is seeking to build a nuclear weapon and is developing its nuclear technology according to Mohmmed Elbaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Speaking to the BBC, ElBaradei said that Iran wanted to be able to make a bomb in order to improve its international standing.

He said that countries with nuclear weapons, like North Korea, are treated with more caution, whilst countries without the bomb, such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq could be "pulverised".

ElBaradei said, "It is my gut feeling that Iran would like to have the technology to enable it to have nuclear weapons."

"They want to send a message to their neighbours, to the rest of the world, don't mess with us."

<snip>

The first sentence isn't quite correct - ElBaradei said they want the ability to build bombs, he didn't say they actually want to build them. Unfortunately, the ability to build bombs is a threat in itself, because at any time in the future they can throw out the IAEA inspectors and start building them.

The rest of the article seems accurate.

I posted in LBN and GD about this, you can find a link to the BBC video in here somewhere:
LBN: U.N. Atomic Energy Chief Says Iran Wants Bomb Technology
GD poll: Is El Baradei's 'gut feeling' the same as Bush's?

[Warpy]

7. I don't think much of anyone is a reputable source at this point

thanks to the clampdown of media within the country and the Supreme Council's passion for secrecy.

In other words, I'll believe that sort of thing after it happens, not before.

It's clear, however, that Rafsanjani is no friend of Khamenei's.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

10. I agree with that. if this were true I find it very unlikely that

it would be leaked out.

[JackRiddler]

17. Also thanks to the propaganda lockstep in the West in claiming fraud is proven?

Naaaah...

[tekisui]

27. It seems to actually have come from Al-Arabiya.

[Kurska]

4. Even if the assembly of expert tries to oust him.

Whose to say he will leave? I really doubt that Khamenei has much respect for the law anymore, he might just order them all arrested.

[grantcart]

11. Shia tradition

Shia has a strong tradition of following collectivist opinion. Khamanei has always been tolerated by the Ayotollahs and not particularly admired. He is considered a light weight theologically and is academic work was as a poet. He never has achieved higher academic standing, or the title of, Ayotollah.

[Hugabear]

5. Is the Supreme Leader "supreme" or not?

I'm not sure exactly how that would work. Do the clerics even have the power to do that? I can't imagine either Khameni or Ahmadenijad giving up power easily.

[Kurska]

8. The Assembly of experts in theory does have that power

In practice though a supreme leader has only ever been ousted by the grim reaper and it's be interesting to see if Khamenei would be willing to give up power like that.

[grantcart]

12. NO - The Shia's believe in collective leadership and not in investing too much

in any one leader, until the 12th Imam returns.


Any time one leader gets "too" big, he is open to peer criticism. This even happened with Ayotollah Khomeni, although it was behind closed doors.

[HeresyLives]

9. International Business Times: UK edition

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/aboutus/aboutus.htm

[msongs]

13. the new Islam dictators want to get rid of the old Islam dictators LOL nt

[tekisui]

14. Will the people accept that? That is the question.

I am guessing yes.

[David__77]

15. That would surely end the Islamic Republic. Rafsanjani would not benefit at all.

They cannot undermine the Islamic Republic's basic framework without causing the whole system to disintegrate. Rafsanjani no doubt does want to "normalize" and accomodate the US/Europe, but this is not possible under current circumstances in which elections were held and the "Supreme Leader" has taken a position. A coup against them would merely set up conditions for an insurrection that would abolish the whole set-up.

[grantcart]

19. I disagree - it could be done on theological grounds consistent with their

tradition to save the theocracy.


See details below.

[grantcart]

18. This is consistent with Shia tradition.

It is one of the very vew examples of where collectivist leadership really means collectivist.


It should be remembered that Khamenei was never really welcomed with open arms by his peers and doesn't have very impressive academic standing, his 'Ayotollah' status being an artificial creation;

At the time of Khomeini's death Khamenei was not a marja or even an ayatollah, and the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Iran required the Supreme Leader to be a marja. However, Ayatollah Khomeini had not been satisfied with the field of candidates to replace him and in April 1989, three months before his death, assigned a team to revise the constitution so that the Supreme Leader of Iran need only be an expert on Islamic jurisprudence and possess the "appropriate political and managerial skills".<18><27> This new amendment to the constitution had not been put to a referendum yet, so upon choosing Khamenei the Assembly of Experts internally titled him a temporary office holder until the new constitution became effective. The choice of Khamenei is said to be a political one,<28> but the "political elite" of the Islamic Republic "rallied behind Khamenei" and his status was "elevated overnight" from Hojjat ol-Islam to Ayatollah.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayatollah_Khamenei

al-Sistani's participation is interesting. Its not so much because he is an independent power broker but may be beause they will use his usurption of "marja'iyat for Shi'as outside Iran " as another reason to attack his leadership:

His status as marja is controversial. In 1994, after the death of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Araki, the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom declared Khamenei a new marja. However, four of Iran's dissident grand ayatollahs declined to recognize Khamenei as a marja.<29> Nevertheless, according to narjes.org a cleric only needs acceptance of a few grand ayatollahs to be recognized as marja.<30> Khamenei refused the offer of marja'iyat for Iran, as he explained, due to other heavy responsibilities, but agreed to be the marja for the Shi'as outside of Iran. His acceptance of marja'iyat for Shi'as outside Iran does not have traditional precedence in Shi'ism. Marja'iyat can be, and in modern times it increasingly is, transitional.<28>

If the cleric establishment is afraid that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad's incompetence is a threat to their theocratic institutions they will get rid of them in an Tehran minute.

[tekisui]

20. Informative post, thanks grantcart.

[Turborama]

32. Cosign

:kick:

[rainbow4321]

21. They're staring down the barrel of strike days

Starting Wednesday. So I'm sure they are trying to rapidly figure out how to get rid of whoever they can. Probably too little too late.

[DLnyc]

22. What if the obvious happens?

Perhaps Ahmedinijad and Khamenei will be removed, a runoff election will be held between Mousavi and Kourabi, and Iran will move into a more moderate, secular stage.

I realize it's cooler to be cynical and skeptical, but "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar".

[JackRiddler]

23. Actually, the source is al-Arabiya, not IBT.

Sorry.

[tekisui]

25. This article support that the source is from Al-Arabiya

Meanwhile, the Al-Arabiya satellite television news channel reported that a "high-ranking" source in Qom confirmed that Rafsanjani has garnered enough support to remove Ayatollah Khamenei, but an announcement is being delayed amid differences on what or who should replace the supreme leader. Some top clerics reportedly want to maintain the post of supreme leader, albeit with someone other than Ayatollah Khamenei occupying the post, while others support the collective leadership approach.

To a certain degree, hardliners now find themselves caught in a cycle of doom: they must crack down on protesters if they are to have any chance of retaining power, but doing so only causes more and more clerics to align against them.

Security forces broke up a small street protest on June 22 involving roughly a thousand demonstrators who had gathered to mourn the victims of the government crackdown two days before. Also on June 22, a statement issued in the name of the Revolutionary Guards demanded that protesters immediately stop "sabotage and rioting activities," and threatened to unleash "revolutionary confrontation" against anyone who took to the streets.

Such a showdown could come later this week. One of the country’s highest-ranking clerics, Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri has declared three days of mourning for those who have died in street protests. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s declaration could bring thousands of Tehran residents back out into the streets starting on June 24.

Meanwhile, the Guardian Council, an unelected state body with election oversight responsibilities, announced June 21 that it had found numerous irregularities connected with the June 12 presidential vote. A council spokesman, for example, admitted that the number of votes cast in 50 cities throughout the country exceeded the number of registered voters in those locations. The Guardian Council indicated that there may be as many as 3 million suspect ballots, but stressed the suspected cases of fraud were not such that it could have influenced the outcome of the vote. . Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly characterized the election as a "divine assessment" of Ahmadinejad’s popularity.

more: http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav062209.shtml

[tekisui]

26. Al-Arabiya:

TEHRAN/DUBAI (AlArabiya.net)

Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters.

Iran's religious clerics in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by Ayatollah Rafsanjani, are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.

(snip)

Members of the assembly are reportedly considering forming a collective ruling body and scrapping the model of Ayatollah Khomeini as a way out of the civil crisis that has engulfed Tehran in a series of protests,

The discussions have taken place in a series of secret meetings convened in the holy city of Qom and included Jawad al-Shahristani, the supreme representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is the foremost Shiite leader in Iraq.

An option being considered is the resignation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran's president following condemnation by the United States and other European nations for violence and human rights violations against unarmed protestors.

Rafsanjani issued no statements following Khamenei's speech last Friday in which the supreme leader praised him along side Ahmadinejad as Iran's new president.

The moderate Khatami called Sunday for the immediate release of protesters arrested in the country since June 13, saying their release could "calm the situation in the country," the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/06/21/76567.html

[HughMoran]

28. Rachels segment on the status of Iran's revolution was excellent tonight

Your article is just one aspect of an ever expending and growing movement.

[scarletwoman]

29. Fascinating. I do have trouble believing that someone close enough to the gathering in Qom

to have this kind of information would leak it to an Arab press organization.

It could be true, it could be psy ops. It's widely known that Rafsanjani has been in Qom meeting with the Assembly of Experts. It's much more difficult to accurately predict whether they are preparing to make such a drastic move.

If Khamenei and Ahmedinejad remain in power, they represent a definitive evolution of the Islamic Republic into a fascist police state. It may very well be that the clerics are not enthused about such a development.

All we really can know is that time will tell.

sw

[AntiFascist]

30. K&R n/t

[scarletwoman]

31. I'll kick your kick (nt)

[Wizard777]

33. Khamenei has ordered the arrest of a general. So the military may be fragmenting as well.

[Wizard777]

34. Iran's best hand to regain their rightful place in the world.

Mousavi as President and Khatami as Foreign Minister.