What is going in Iran, via Twitter

[nadinbrzezinski]

take with grain of salt, though coming from multiple sources.

1.- Tanks have rolled

2.- Dutch embassy is now blocked

3.- Go to hospital, face arrest or death, Basij are there

4.- Houses getting marked by Basij

5.- Death upwards of 150

6.- Change your computer time to Iran's time, to help fool the guv'ment looking for Iranian bloggers. (from what I know it could do some good, but it is hard to tell. Already did, depends on how sophisticated the spiders are. In the far chance that it will work... )

[Oregone]

1. Has Twitter told you yet what they are revolting for?

Im still trying to figure out if they want a new asshole, Mousavi, heading up the repressive theocracy, or if its for something worthwhile.

If its for something worthwhile, then we have to figure out if some asshole is going to hijack the moment to seize power and continue repression.

Either way, a bunch of kids get to die. Sucks.

[Warpy]

3. Mousavi is actually pretty far down on the list

They want Khamenei replaced with a more liberal cleric, Mousavi to head a provisional government while the constitution is rewritten, direct election of the ruling council of Mullahs, and normalized relations with the west.

They don't want business as usual, being disconnected from the real power brokers in the country, and mostly, they don't want Khamenei. They don't want the Shah, they don't want a western style government. The way theirs is set up, with religious leaders at the top, is fine with them. They just want a say in which religious leaders they get.

[Oregone]

Who is "they"?

There are millions on the streets. Are you sure a Twitter list of a couple of demands represent everyone at all? This is not a homogeneous country.

Who is the more "liberal" cleric "they" want in place?

And again, even if its a coherent movement, it is one that may be built on anger and easily hijacked.

I feel for their plight and the people shot at. But I cannot help but be a bit ambivalent. Its anything but black and white.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Actually NOBODY is posting the demands on twitter

so no, twitt has told me nothing except as an aggregator of what is going on minute to minute, like where to go if you are injured or where not to.

It is, to use a term unfamiliar to most on DU, pretty raw signals intelligence.

what the Iranians want you might want to start readying sources around the world, but twitt is NOT where you will find it.

[Oregone]

13. "what the Iranians want" - you miss my point already

Many factions may want many different things (things that we are not even yet aware of, so far removed from the situation).

Its far too early for me to be anything but confused about the situation (sadly, there aren't more confused people on this turn of events). As much as it may be a hopeful opportunity for change, it could turn out to be the opposite.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. All social movements can turn Good or bad

depends on your point of view

But what you are watching in Iran is history in the making, and it is way early to know where this is going.

Now back to monitoring the tweets. As I said, this is RAW signals Intel, as in VERY RAW.

I am not following for WHAT THEY WANT, but what is going on RIGHT NOW.

By the way, these people are willing to die...

[Oregone]

20. I realize these people are willing to die

And I hope, in the end, its not just for a new asshole. :) Best of wishes to them

[Hannah Bell]

27. kind of like the raw reports on swine flu. but hey, who cares if its disinfo, spread every rumor

you get your hands on.

cause it's always good when people spread unconfirmed wild stories.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Moussavi is the spark

but he is pretty down on the list actually

[magellan]

8. Worthwhile in whose judgement?

For them it obviously is worthwhile or they wouldn't be dying for it.

[Oregone]

10. A lot of things are worthwhile to a lot of people

People who everyone else has a right to disagree with.

From my little view, if people are dying over a symbolic election to lead to a symbolic change of government that still represses its people, I just cant get behind that (as if I matter). I wont wear green and become an armchair revolutionary for a movement into a brick wall. I don't matter. No one else here does either to this movement. But people are getting emotional over something we may or may not understand yet. And real people are dying over a movement that may not change anything even if it "succeeds". I'm not sure why there is a complete lack ambivalence over this issue so far.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Don't worry that is the classic attutide I encounter every time I say

we need a national strike... so there.

I am just passing on news... or actually, again to use the RIGHT term, pretty raw signals intelligence. It is your job to make heads or tails out of it.

[magellan]

19. I don't think anyone here is under the illusion that they matter to what's happening in Iran

I'm not. That doesn't mean there's no reason to care about it.

If you prefer to remain ambivalent, that's your choice. The way to do that is by NOT judging the worthiness of their struggle and sacrifice.

[Oregone]

22. My reason for the ambivalence, is that I don't understand...

the reasons and entire movement behind the struggle and sacrifice. So clearly, I am not judging anything right now.

I am using "ifs". If they are dying for a new asshole to head up a repressive theocracy, yes, I would judge that hardly worthy.

If they are dying for a new government that will not repress them, then good for them.

If they are dying merely because they are enraged, I hope they at least feel the effort was worthy.

As of now, I really don't know the reason behind any of it. How could I judge?

[magellan]

31. You do realize the people who are protesting voted for Mousavi, right?

That's clear. They voted for Mousavi because they want Mousavi for president; they're protesting because it appears to them that massive election fraud occurred. And yet you wrote: "Im still trying to figure out if they want a new asshole, Mousavi, heading up the repressive theocracy, or if its for something worthwhile."

You judged.

There's nothing wrong with disliking Mousavi. I'm just saying you can't contrast their wanting "a new asshole, Mousavi, heading up the repressive theocracy" with "something worthwhile", and still claim to be ambivalent.

[Oregone]

38. No, that isn't really clear at all

(its not even clear if this election was even "stolen", based on some other polling. The three conflicting "leaked" results are way incongruent with Ahmadinejad's support amongst the poor, so they should be objectively dismissed pending further information)

I think it is as likely that Ahmadinejad "supporters" are also in the streets. Look, they had no one decent to choose from. All the options sucks, and hence, they had no option. The election could merely be a catalyst for a revolution, rather than a reason for it. By now, people may be less concerned about an election result than changing an oppressive government. I honestly hope that is the case, but I don't know.

It is not clear what the motivation of all the factions is. Not clear at all.

I can still claim to be ambivalent, because I don't know if the goal really is a new asshole heading up a repressive theocracy. We don't know shit beyond the tweets and twitts, and beyond the reports upon them. We probably won't have a clear idea what is happening on the ground, if anything, for another month yet.

[newspeak]

48. I believe it's up to the Iranian people what they want

but if we look at our own revolution--there were probably about 20-30 per cent of the colonists who were demanding representation-probably an equal amount of loyalists and the rest pretty much apathetic until actual physical confrontation. The whole world is watching to see how this plays out.

[LooseWilly]

41. I'm in the middle of writing an email to my cousin in Tehran...

I'd offer to ask her, but she says she's been stuck in the house for days listening to the sounds of riots and occasional shooting & screaming outside. I don't think this is the sort of revolt that issues press releases (because those issuing releases would be liable to be killed if caught).

It sounds like people are just fed up with Ahmadi nejad, blame him for the economy... and now they feel like they've been robbed with an election that doesn't "feel right"... and there is a very real divide between the more Westernized/liberal urbanites in Tehran (and presumably Shiraz and other large cities) and the more religious/less educated rural population... kind of like the US with 'latte drinkers' vs 'individually wrapped Kraft cheese slice eaters'... but more so.

The tensions have now boiled over. Some are in the streets. Others are hiding out in their homes and trying to ride out the storm...

[Oregone]

42. "I don't think this is the sort of revolt that issues press releases"

:)

Tell her to stay safe (and inside)!

[Joanne98]

2. Which twitter accounts are you reading?

[BlooInBloo]

4. #iranelection is the main hashtag....

Others to follow:

@persianwiki
@Change_for_Iran
@mousavi1388
@TehranBureau

[rainbow4321]

14. The girl killed today--her name is now nearing the top of the twitter list

Video her being shot/killed has been all over the 'net today.

#Neda

Soooo sad.

Apparently her name means "voice" (or call) in Persian. She is now being called "the voice" of the Iranian people calling out to the world.

:-( :-( :-(

[BlooInBloo]

17. Yah. :(

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. And the way some of the posters are talking about her

follows the same pattern seen in 1979...

[backscatter712]

25. Be very careful with those names.

Please, do not post the names of Iranians you find Twittering. If you see a cool post, retweet them with "RT from Iran" instead of the usual "RT @username".

There are Iranian government agents monitoring Twitter and trying to track down Iranian twitterers so they can be arrested or killed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. go here

#iranelection

#tehran

be ready to go through quite a bit of BS... and misinfo from the looks of it

[Joanne98]

9. Thanks. I kinda noticed that.

[Hannah Bell]

6. wait, twitter told me tanks rolled 3 days ago. are these different tanks?

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Technology is controlled by the CIA!!!!11!!

[Hannah Bell]

21. you're the only person talking about the cia here.

[Joe the Revelator]

24. You're funny

[Hannah Bell]

35. you're funnier

[Oregone]

16. According to #iranveryfast, those were Venezuelan tanks

So these new ones could be Russian

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. FYI we equiped the Sha's army

so either they are M-60s and Bradleys, or later bought Russian tanks. But they didn't have that many of those either. Most captured from the Iraqis during that small scuffle that killed millions.

[Hannah Bell]

36. fyi no one's talking about the shah's tanks

[Oregone]

39. Yup, Im talking about fake tweet rumors about Chavez sending support

Not everything that Twitters is gold

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. That is where you have to separate the wheat from the proverbial chaff

[Duer 157099]

23. It's like 5am right now in Tehran

In a few hours we'll know how their Sunday will be going.

Alot of the twitter refeeds are outdated, I think. It's hard to know what is current, what is true, what is disinformation, etc.

Also remember that virtually all of the information flow is one-way -- those protesters are sending messages to Twitter, but by and large they either are not able or are very limited in their ability to view the web etc. In other words, they have limited bandwidth and resources for getting messages out, so I doubt they're spending much effort in using those resources to see what is going on.

So, while we're watching videos of them, remember that they mostly are not able to see most of what we are watching.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Why I consider this very raw signals intelligence

and mostly looking for patterns

[Duer 157099]

30. heheh, say you're not Cayce are you? n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Nope, but I was very technically in somebody's army

my job was not Intel, but knew enough Intel and SpecOps types to know raw intel when I see it.

By the way, here is one that caught my attention. A link on tweet to somebody holding updates from Iran. Tried to link to a story on they will NOW allow 10% recount... remember they were not going to count no stinking vote... and I could not link to the English Tehran paper. Not only are they blocking Web traffic from Iran but INTO iran.

Now that is damn cute.

[Duer 157099]

37. So you know what I meant by Cayce?

I just read William Gibson's Pattern Recognition last week. Have you read it?

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. No, but will add it to my book list

[nadinbrzezinski]

46. just got it into the Ipod, these days it is electronic

so will be readying on the kindle reader over the next few days.

Thanks

[EFerrari]

47. The 10% recount was offered last week.

I don't think the Supreme Leader has a very good memory.

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. What I found interesting is that I was blocked

and yesterday he said in his message no stinking fraud in Iran.

So if he offered the 10% NOW... take all with grain of salt, they are losing even more control

As is I have reports on tweet right now of wide spread riots,,, but the tanks apparently never showed up.

Also the Security Forces are now ALSO posting on tweet...

Separating the crap from the gold is getting harder.

[EFerrari]

50. This election was such a mess I doubt a substantial audit can help it.

And, imho, it was already a cr2p n gold salad by last Saturday morning.

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. Of course that is what makes intel analysis so much fun as an intellectual

exercise.

I write for a living, so this is kind of useful, since some of my fiction includes crap like this. That said, as a historian it is exciting to see history in the making. And we are.

[EFerrari]

52. Agreed. Putting the pieces together is fascinating. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

53. And here is the piece of data that is a moving train

embassies accepting injured

Embassies Accepting Injured People in Tehran
Embassies to take injured to. Be safe.

Sources:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

All Embassies In Tehran Within Walking Distance of Vali-Ye-Asr.
5,059 views - Public
Created on Jun 20 - Updated 1 hour ago
By Katharine
22 ratings - 48 comments

AUS
Australian Embassy in Tehran

FIN
Finnish Embassy in Tehran

GER
German Embassy in Tehran

UK
British Embassy in Tehran

NED
Netherlands Embassy in Tehran

NOR
Norwegian Embassy in Tehran

BEL
Belgian Embassy in Tehran

MEX
Mexican Embassy in Tehran

POR
Portuguese Embassy in Tehran

FRE
French Embassy in Tehran

SWI/USA
Swiss Embassy in Iran (incl. USA)

POL
Polish Embassy in Tehran

SPA
Spanish Embassy in Tehran

AST
Austrian Embassy in Tehran

DNM
Danish Embassy in Tehran

Who is who in the zoo is quite fascinating... but it looks to me like 1\3 of NATO is playing as well as Mexico and through the Swiss, the US... Canada was in the list.

[EFerrari]

56. Who is betting the embassies won't be attacked?

Someone is. Or maybe, they can't attack so many?

The regime doesn't seem to have control over its capitol, does it?

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. They are already blocked

and a few are not answering the phone.

Yes, the crisis just became more than just Iran. According to some bloggers... the Swiss Embassy, charge d'affairs for the US, was rocked and they tried fire bombing.

The mexicans and the french are not answering the phone, as well as the portuguese

Staff must be in safe room. So if they even try. that is an act of war.

Article five of NATO and the similar one from the OAS comes to mind.

Now if I can track what is seating at the border with Iraq.

[rainbow4321]

32. Locals are trying another way to fight the imported militia

Telling/tweeting others to remove street signs and house address signs..since the militia being shipped into Tehran to attack the protestors won't be familiar with the neighborhoods/streets, it will hopefully disorient them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. It's a true and tried tactic

the Germans used it against us during the Battle of the Ardennes

[BlooInBloo]

40. @persianwiki: "we have no confirmation of tank in Tehran - that is a rumor from Gov - #Iranelection"

http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

[sazerac]

43. Help Iran Election - twitter

Make your twitter avatar green to show your support.

http://helpiranelection.com

[rainbow4321]

54. Injured given refuge in embassies..militia can't get to them there

Reportedly, at least one embassy (Canada) has doctors onsite to treat the injured that they (finally) allowed into their building. Some are saying that the Iranian militia will be able to enter (per Geneva Convention rules?). I hope this is the case, but as we have seen, the militia and Basji aren't really into playing by the "rules".
For a while, it was reported that the only embassy NOT allowing injured people onto embassy property. Guess either the report was wrong or they relented.

Question is: Will the embassy staff be allowed to stay or will they, too, be kicked out of the country? And what will be the international fallout if the militia decide to raid/takeover an embassy?

[nadinbrzezinski]

55. Here are the embassies doing this

Embassies Accepting Injured People in Tehran
Embassies to take injured to. Be safe.

Sources:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

All Embassies In Tehran Within Walking Distance of Vali-Ye-Asr.
5,059 views - Public
Created on Jun 20 - Updated 1 hour ago
By Katharine
22 ratings - 48 comments

AUS
Australian Embassy in Tehran

FIN
Finnish Embassy in Tehran

GER
German Embassy in Tehran

UK
British Embassy in Tehran

NED
Netherlands Embassy in Tehran

NOR
Norwegian Embassy in Tehran

BEL
Belgian Embassy in Tehran

MEX
Mexican Embassy in Tehran

POR
Portuguese Embassy in Tehran

FRE
French Embassy in Tehran

SWI/USA
Swiss Embassy in Iran (incl. USA)

POL
Polish Embassy in Tehran

SPA
Spanish Embassy in Tehran

AST
Austrian Embassy in Tehran

DNM
Danish Embassy in Tehran