How Obama wins the election (or "it's the math...stupid")

[Perky]

Two Points about Obama and the SOuth.

First. He has the potential to win some southern states:

Assuming that the 75% of the white vote is locked. You have effectively 25% of the white vote in play. Given that the GOP nominee Will not likely be A southerner a good portion of the value voters might actually stay home. Assuming a Modesty decrease there and a 25% increase in Black participation. You have Obama within striking distance depending on how swing voters swing. if you dig deeper into swing demographics, if the war is still the issue. there might be a couple of upsets. I can tick off five states that would be in play in the south.

Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina Louisiana and Tennessee...Not to mention Florida which is not really the south

Second and the Bottom line is that while Obama might not win any of those states, he does not need to. His candidacy makes them far more competitive. What that means is that the GOP will be spending money protecting it's base when their nominee is not a southerner(McCain,Guiliani or Romney).

You get them to spend money there instead of Virginia and Ohio or Colorado of Florida and we win the election.

[karlrschneider]

1. "We" win? Who is this We you speak of....and so then who are 'them'?

:wtf:

[Perky]

4. We democrats.

[karlrschneider]

5. You phrase your comments as if you think an Obama win is the only way to have a Democratic one.

Perhaps I misunderstood.

[Perky]

8. No. the argument preceded from a assumption that if Obama gets the nod

the SOuth is more in play than some people realize.

[HereSince1628]

2. you think southern whites are opposed to a black man?

Where did that number come from, I've not seen that one yet?

I think they'd be just as unlikely to vote for him because he's lived in Chicago, and he went to a universtiy considered by many conservatives to be _the_ bastion of northeastern liberalism.

[Perky]

6. No I am saying that n75% of whites who voted for Bush would

probaly vote for the GOP nominee. Same with 75% of the Kerry voters would likely vote for Obama. it is the 25% in play that could be turned one way or the other that is in play and I am suggesting that regardless of the race issue even a 40% for a liberal (historically about right) puts those states I mention in play.

[Perky]

7. No I am saying that n75% of whites who voted for Bush would

probaly vote for the GOP nominee. Same with 75% of the Kerry voters would likely vote for Obama. it is the 25% in play that could be turned one way or the other that is in play and I am suggesting that regardless of the race issue even a 40% for a liberal (historically about right) puts those states I mention in play.

[AX10]

3. The Democrats can win Florida, Virginia, and Arkansas (it's moderate).

The rest of the south does not look too good for us. At this time, a Gore v. Fred Thompson race will result in a sizable win for Gore, but I expect him to narrowly lose his home state to that other Tennessean, Fred Thompson.