'Very Active' Hurricane Season Predicted...

[Blue Belle]

'Very Active' Hurricane Season Predicted
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20070403/D8O95OC00.html

<SNIP>FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with 17 named storms, a top storms forecaster said Tuesday.

Those named storms are expected to include five intense or major hurricanes, according to forecaster William Gray's team at Colorado State University. Gray said there is a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast. The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Last year, Gray's forecast - as well as government forecasts - was higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's team said the reason was a late El Nino that altered oceanic conditions. There were nine named Atlantic storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, in 2006. That was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

The devastating 2005 season had 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

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I hope they are overestimating this year too... but since this has been a rather warm winter statistically, I'm afraid this next hurricane season is going to be expensive.

[MrModerate]

1. Having just moved to Houston . . .

this report falls short of filling me with joy.

I guess I'm now subject to the effects of global warming that I've managed to duck heretofore.

Hmmm . . . who else is in such a situation?

[Phoonzang]

2. Having just moved from Houston

I guess I left at the right time. I don't think I could deal with 4 Hurricane Ritas a year.

But wait...I moved to Delaware. They still get hurricanes here... ;(

[magellan]

3. Tying increased hurricane activity to global warming is tricky

...as experts think it runs in 20+/- year cycles, and that we entered an uptick cycle in the mid-90s. However, despite the skepticism of some experts, I strongly believe we'll find that global warming plays a decisive role in hurricane strength and production. In fact I don't see how it couldn't.

I live in C FL which was hit hard in 2004 by Charley, Frances and Jeanne, so none of this makes me feel very good.

[greenman3610]

5. El Nino had a protective effect in 2006

El Nino tends to be associated with high altitude wind shear
that breaks up tropical depressions that form
hurricanes. That said, there was still a larger than
average number of named storms last year.

this year, El Nino is fading, so we may indeed
experience more hurricanes. On the other hand, this Gray guy
has been full of crap before, so who knows?

[magellan]

8. Indeed, we were very lucky last year

And it's even harder to predict El Nino intensity than hurricane intensity. The flip side to the coin is that La Nina has now interjected herself on the proceedings, and that's bad mojo for us in hurricane alley. Here's a tidy little explanation for those unfamiliar with the opposite effects of these two conditions:

Though El Niño caused worldwide weather problems, it also snuffed out hurricanes. Winds 35,000 to 45,000 feet in the atmosphere shifted to come from the west, basically shearing the tops from developing storms.

During La Niña, high-level westerly winds either weaken or shift to come from the east, allowing more storms to develop, said Jerry Jarrel, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

http://hurricane.weathercenter.com/guide/lanina.htm

I worry for 6 months out of the year no matter what the predictions are. :scared:

edit: spelling

[Jacobin]

4. This guy gets quoted every year and he's talking out of his ass

He predicted last year would have a bumper crop of hurricanes and it was one of the calmest in years. He ALWAYS 'revises' his 'predictions' about September of each year....like re-doing your bet half way through a horse race.

He's a fricking go-to guy for the idiot media who look at their calendars and go...oooh, time to panic about the upcoming hurricane season.

They need to find an honest meterologist who would say: "You know what? No one knows how many hurricanes we are gonna have this year or where they might strike. So unwad your panties, STFU, go find something factual to print, and LMTFA."

Not holding my breath.

[Breeze54]

6. "74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast."

And this is news?? Gee, ya think?? :shrug:

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. They predicted a very active season last year

We have come a very long way in predicting weather, but I am quite skeptical of our ability to predict long-term weather events.

[AnneD]

9. I have lived in Houston since I was 13

and the 3 most memorable hurricane seasons were the year FL had so many, the year of Katrina and Rita, and last year.

You think we had trouble after Katrina.....wait til Houston takes a direct hit. We got a taste of it when Allison hit. A Cat 4 would be devastating-worse than Katrina ever was. You think the economy has problems now-wait til this major refining area is hit. At least we have a decent city government.