New Poll: Specter (D) 41, Ridge (R) 48

[Bonn1997]

I know it's early but did we just out-smart ourselves and end up with a weak 2010 candidate against Ridge?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. "If you run a Republican against a Republican, you elect a Republican." Harry Truman

[Bonn1997]

3. Wow, what an interesting quote. In what context did he make it?

[Teaser]

2. link?

.

[Bonn1997]

6. They showed the poll on Hardball

[Teaser]

8. I just need more info

how hard were leaners pushed, stuff like that.

I suspect Arlen will win, just out of habit. The Dem machine will push him over the top, assuming Ridge is the adversary. Which is a probability I place at less than 50%.

[monmouth]

4. There's a poll on C&L re Sestak and his rating is 80%. Sorry, don't

know how to reproduce it here. It's a poll asking if he should be drafted.

[peace frog]

5. *We* didn't select Specter

He selected us. We, however, can select another nominee in 2010 (PA calling Sestak, come in Sestak). :)

[Bonn1997]

7. Yeah but I think being the incumbent D and having name rec. gives you a big advantage

I know it didn't work that way with Lieberman but I still think on average the incumbent D with name rec has a big advantage.

[peace frog]

10. Not necessarily

Ask the Dem voters in PA if they feel more loyal to a long-established Dem like Sestak, or to a turncoat-for-personal-gain who does not share their views by a long shot like Specter.

[Occam Bandage]

19. Only if the voters percieve you as a D.

Specter's been going out of his way to ensure that nobody can confuse Specter with a Dem. Dumb move on his part.

[davidwparker]

14. I hope he runs. Democracy Now! (in PA). Have a (D) primary. n/t

[bullimiami]

9. i dont think spector will be winning another primary in any party.

[w4rma]

11. Spector is toast in *any* general election. He loses against any Democratic nominee too. (nt)

[quiller4]

12. Am I the only one who thinks Spector won't live out his term?

I've been looking at pictures of Spector and comparing recent shots to those taken 3-6 months ago. He looks like an elderly man whose health is fast fading. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the conversation about his party switch was about Rendell appointing his replacement.

[Bucky]

17. He recently beat cancer. So he looks much better now than he did last year

His long term prognosis is good. His health should hold up well into Senator Sestak's term.

[Demoiselle]

13. Ridge will have to re-establish residence in PA to run.

Just sayin. I'd rather see Sestak as a candidate.

[MiniMe]

15. Can Ridge win the Primary against the neocon?

And is he willing to move to Pennsylvania? He lives in Maryland now.

[Bucky]

16. Yes, Ridge has a strong lead in the latest poll.

Of course that's before the haters start to work their magic. This is going to be the hottest Senate race next year.

[Occam Bandage]

18. Obviously. Specter's done nothing but piss people in both parties off over the past week.

I hope he loses his primary bid.

[RamboLiberal]

20. I posted this story yesterday in GD - I guess you all missed it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=5600791&mesg_id=5600791

What I posted.

A new poll of Pennsylvania from Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies shows that former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA), who is reportedly considering a bid for the Senate seat now held by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, would currently lead conservative candidate Pat Toomey in a 60%-23% landslide for the Republican primary.

Toomey's big lead over Specter in the primary polls spurred the incumbent to switch parties, which in turn created the question of whether the Republicans were guaranteed Toomey as the nominee, or whether another Republican could take him. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who is also vice chair of the NRSC, has openly said Toomey cannot win, so the establishment could understandably be eager for someone else. And if Ridge gets in, they just might have it.

Another key finding: In a general election match-up, Ridge currently leads Specter by 48%-41%, compared to Toomey trailing Specter by 49%-40%. The big question is whether Ridge's support is truly solid, or whether going through an actual campaign could wear him down through attacks coming from the right.

But, the strength of Ridge's candidacy is remarkable - fully two-thirds of voters in the state have a favorable impression of him, he leads the GOP primary by nearly 40 points, and he's leading the incumbent US Senator by seven points on the ballot.

Tom Ridge would be a very significant obstacle in Arlen Specter's drive for re-election.

The poll was commissioned by an RNC member from Pennsylvania. And while it's true that POS was Specter's pollster for years, they very publicly severed ties with him after he switched parties.

[FLAprogressive]

21. Great....we need Sestak to beat him now more than ever.

[izquierdista]

22. Against Mr. "Homeland Security"?

Are you kidding? :rofl:

[peace frog]

23. "Homeland Security" smacks a bit too much of

"Bush Administration" which leaves a foul taste in everyone's mouth, on the left and right. If Tom Ridge plans to run for office I think he knows full well it would be political suicide to highlight his role as a loyal Bushie.