Interesting chart - "If I am wrong, she will still love me"

[slipslidingaway]

http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/if-i-am-wrong.html

[slipslidingaway]

1. Kick for the evening crowd...

April 1997 gaps, today's low was 6470.

6451-6536 (April 14-15)
6783-6890 (April 28-29)


http://www.alphatrends.blogspot.com/

"For the record, I told her to buy a 25% position in QLD if the DOW is down 100 today (approx 6495) She is not in yet. I will also tell her to take a loss if it goes lower. I AM NOT CALLING A BOTTOM, JUST A TRADABLE BOUNCE.

I mis-labeled that first level @9399, it is a 38.2% retracement.
Posted by Brian at 3/06/2009 11:20:00 AM


Update...

Buying Blindly

Goes completly against all I believe in. That is why I called my mom and told her to cancel the buy order...for now. I think the market can still decline precipitously before "the bounce" materializes. I told her that the QQQQ needs to trade below 25 before she should buy any position in QLD. We are down to important level, but we could still see a climactic flush. The dow is down 75 as I write this. There is no reason to be in a long trade yet.

Posted by Brian at 3/06/2009 01:22:00 PM"

[slipslidingaway]

2. Kick for the Saturday crowd, if nothing else it shows how fast

this donwtrend has been, the trendline originates at the 1987 lows and yes it is a linear chart.

[TahitiNut]

3. The "technical" analysis of the market is like the astrological study of the stars.

:shrug:

[slipslidingaway]

4. You believe in both???

:shrug:

[TahitiNut]

5. Neither. I dropped out of the "Greater Fool" competition long ago.

:shrug:

[slipslidingaway]

6. It has worked OK for us since 1999/2000...

nothing is perfect, but big money moving into and out of the market leaves footprints IMO.


Just one example...

About the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=327&topic_id=716&mesg_id=716

In the spring and summer of 2007 the Summation index was making lower highs while the general market continued to make higher highs. These divergences with price, whether negative or positive, can be an early warning sign in the direction of the market.

:hi:

[RoyGBiv]

7. I love the comment ...

"I AM NOT CALLING A BOTTOM, JUST A TRADABLE BOUNCE"

That's one of the big problems right there, all summed up in all-caps hysteria.

Many, perhaps most view the stock market the way a visitor to Vegas views the roulette wheel. They stare at the pretty numbers showing trends on that lighted board there, work the odds out in their heads, and lay it all on black because the last ten numbers were red.

People still playing like this in the market right now deserve what they get.

[slipslidingaway]

8. I thought you meant the comment about his Mom...

I can understand his comment based on the chart. The last thing you would want to do is post a chart like this and then have people say "you said" it was save to invest again.

Everyone has to be responsible for their own retirement accounts and the decisions they make as to whether or not to stay in for the long haul or to take a more active role.

[slipslidingaway]

9. Stage Analysis of SP 500 Sept 2003

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2D9RkJVyOA

He talks about the stages of the market in the beginning of the video, then drills down to smaller time frames near the end.

[slipslidingaway]

10. kick n/t

[slipslidingaway]

11. kick before this is archived n/t