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June 2008 and the Royal Bank of Scotland issues a warning of a global stock and credit crash

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TheBigotBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-02-09 06:12 PM
Original message
June 2008 and the Royal Bank of Scotland issues a warning of a global stock and credit crash
Edited on Mon Mar-02-09 06:13 PM by TheBigotBasher
They were so wrong but also so right.

Of course the Republican Party posters who were commenting on it are now just funny

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/2791861/RBS-issues-global-stock-and-credit-crash-alert.html


The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.

US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.

The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.


"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.



Now for some of the comments


"Look, when somebody is trying to short the markets and getting their brains beat in because they are on the wrong side of the trade they run to the press with the most irresponsible comments they can make in hopes of getting out without getting crushed by a rally. If Bank of Scotland was such a great predictor of economic conditions, how come they how come they had writedowns of 12 billion dollars? Guess they just didn't see that one coming. I rest my case. My advice: Sell Bank of Scotland and buy Goldman Sachs."


"There is a much better chance of a crash in the commodity markets which will set off a furious rally in the stock markets. If these guys were any good, they wouldn't be working at RBS."
(they probably are not any more)

"Here we go with more left-wing economic gloom-and-doom claptrap designed to panic the populace into a recession so Obama can say "See, I told you so, now vote for me". People, don't listen to this. Everything's fine. We are America after all. You know that we as Americans have a divine right to perpetual prosperity, rest of the world be damned. So don't worry! Move along now, nothing to see here! Don't you have credit card payments to make? Doesn't American Idol start in 15 minutes?"


RBS ignored its own advisors. It went on to buy ABM Amro and is now pretty much bust. They reported the largest Corporate loss in UK history.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKL255758520090302


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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-02-09 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. If you think that's funny, check out this thread:
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TheBigotBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-02-09 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. It is sad not funny.
And I still think that there will be a lot worse to come before things even start to look better.

This was deliberate economic sabotage by the Republican Party.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-02-09 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. That was a profound OP
Bravo.
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