Anyone else having global warming doubts?

[Alhena]

For me, global warming is not and should not be a political issue. We should go where the science leads us, and progressives should no more be wedded to the notion of man-made global warming than conservatives should be opposed to it. Whether or not man-made global warming exists is a simple scientific question of fact, rather than a political issue. Or at least it should be.

I still believe that man-made global warming exists, but the record cold we have seen this winter, in North American, Europe and Asia does cause me to re-evaluate just how quickly this warming is progressing and how urgent it is that we address the issue now, in such a poor economic climate.

I don't put much credence on a single cold snap, especially if it's cold in one part of the world but unusually warm in others. In the past year, however, it seems like we have seen stories of record cold in vast areas of the world, and not just in an isolated time frame. And just on a personal level, it's hard to get enthusiastic about spending vast sums on global warming when it seems like I've been freezing my butt off for the last couple of months.

[rockymountaindem]

1. That's why it's called climate change

not global warming. The idea is that there will be more common and more severe swings in temperature and weather events, not just that the thermostat is going to keep rising at some particular rate.

[tabatha]

2. some info

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/writing/2004/02/global_warming_.html

[babylonsister]

3. 'Global climate change' makes more sense, and yes, I believe

we're all experiencing it.

[NMDemDist2]

4. global warming is the wrong term. climate change is the correct term

it means the climate will be more varied and more intense

and yes, all the crap we've spewed into the air is the major cause.

but thanks for playing.....

[YOY]

5. Icecaps are melting despite it being "record cold".

Global warming means irregular weather patterns all around.

[question everything]

6. The global warming, or, as scientist refer to as climate change

is not about warm winters abut about extremes. We have had a year of extremes in hurricanes - and now in winter and who knows what will be in the summer.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. I have no doubt that the weather is seriously screwed up

I've lived in Arkansas for over 15 years, and the rain patterns and patterns of cold/heat have changed greatly and are now largely unpredictable.

[closeupready]

8. The reason it is politicized is that those who stand to lose most in a post-petrol world

are oilmen - Republicans.

[Cha]

14. Thank you, closeupalready.

I believe the experts and the evidence that says we are in a Global Climate Change Crisis and Pollution needs to be stopped and we need to clean up the Planet.

[closeupready]

Welcome. :) Seems common sense, really.

n/t

[Cha]

29. Oh, it's common sense all right but

seems to have gotten overlooked.

[Avalux]

9. Umm...might be a good idea if you look at the data.

You say we should go where science leads us, then you go the other direction.

[Alhena]

16. I have, and the data has moderated in the last couple of years

as I said, I believe that man-made global warming exists, but the climate data for the last couple of years has come in colder than the global warming models had projected. And when the data changes to show colder winters than had been anticipated, it seems like the position of the "global warming" crowd changes to an emphasis on "climate change." I recall very well the warnings of a couple of years ago, and I don't recall hearing any warnings about how winters were going to get colder.

I'm sorry, but when a story changes like that to fit the data then that causes my objective BS detector to go off a little bit. I'm the one who is following the data, not those who have switched from talking about "global warming" to "climate change with colder winters." No one was saying anything about colder winters a couple years ago.

[Birthmark]

36. You are confused.

2008 was the ninth warmest year on record. Nine of the eleven warmest years on record have occurred from 1998-2008. That is a pretty clear trend.

Go here: ===> http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

[Alhena]

38. Interesting- now THAT's the type of response I was hoping for- based on facts

your link does arguably support the notion that global warming is real but may not be progressing as fast as many had indicated, since we just had "the coolest year since 2000."

I personally am eager to see what next year's data shows.

[Birthmark]

39. The coolest year since 2000

From the link in my previous post:

"The map of global temperature anomalies in 2008, the left panel of Figure 1, shows that most of the world was warmer than in the period of climatology (1951-1980). Eurasia, the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula were exceptionally warm, while much of the Pacific Ocean was cooler than the long-term average. The relatively low temperature in the tropical Pacific was due to a strong La Niña. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of a natural oscillation of tropical temperatures, La Niña being the cool phase. "

A strong La Niña has profound weather effects, so it's unsurprising that 2008 was only the ninth warmest year on record.

[spanone]

silly

[Occam Bandage]

10. The net effect of global warming is, worst case, only a few degrees over a few decades.

The problem with that is that any change in the Earth's climate will lead to wildly unpredictable changes in rainfall patterns, in ocean currents and jetstreams, and in temperature swings. "Climate change," and not "global warming," is a better term.

[Doremus]

11. Tell that to the glaciers. (but you better hurry) n/t

[aquart]

12. What part of the "ROSS ICE SHELF IS MELTING" do you not believe?"

Global warming is causing extremes of weather. Get a grip on your mind.

[Jackpine Radical]

13. I think "global warming" was a bad term to begin with.

Rises in temperatures are only one of the effects. I think of it as adding energy to the climate system, which results in chaotic processes (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) that can entirely mask the few degrees of average temperature increase. In statistical terms, the mean is changing, but so is the standard deviation, with the result that there's more random variation around the mean, thereby obscuring "true" (average) changes.

[patrice]

50. Excellent analysis!

:hi:

[Jackpine Radical]

53. Thank you.

[patrice]

57. Actually, I think the word is "elegant". Measures of Central Tendancy are quite handy! nt

[riderinthestorm]

15. Turn off Faux news, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, and get educated.

This is a common RW talking point. It's dangerous. You've been sucked into their insidious and short sighted meme. I implore you to get educated about what's happening with climate change (a better term than "global warming") and the danger our planet is in asap.

Please, this issue is too important to be "snowed" (heh).

[Alhena]

21. That's a typical dismissive statement of a political groupthink adherant

I am not a scientist, but I try to analyze scientific issues using the scientific method.

And for the record, I despise Hannity, Limbaugh and Fox and I totally disagree with how they have dismissed the global warming issue all along. There is clearly reason to believe that global warming exists to some degree. But the fact is that we are getting in new data and anyone who values the scientific method will try to analyze and actually consider that new data instead of hugging some preconceived political notion.

[riderinthestorm]

30. If you are truly analyzing this crisis using the 'scientific method", you would never have posted

that OP.

You are sadly mistaken in dismissing anyone who disagrees with you as a "political group think adherant". You've been exposed as having been sucked into one of the worst RW talking points out there right now, furthermore you've more than amply demonstrated your utter LACK of exposure to "new data".

Good luck with that. Get back to us when your ass warms up when "global warming" (sic) truly kicks into overdrive.

[Alhena]

37. Your posts have included zero facts, data, or reasoned argument

just ad homimen attacks and insults. I doubt you have the knowledge or intelligence to do anything else so I won't blame you for that. But pardon me if I don't consider my doubts as having been effectively rebutted by your brilliant analysis.

[riderinthestorm]

40. You haven't posted a single fact, data or reasoned argument from the start.

I know it's embarrassing to be exposed as ignorant in front of a crowd but this is too important to let you simply spew. From calling it "global warming" and trying to bolster your position with "new data" (without producing said data), you've more than amply demonstrated your gullibility. I'm sorry for you.

Sorrier still for our planet that there's a virtual army of people just like you.

There's already more than enough links on this thread alone for you to wade through in order to begin your education. I'm not going to post even more that you won't wade through. Get through the others and if you still have doubts, get back to me and I will provide you with an avalanche (heh again) of data. I'm off to work right now but will check back later tonight.

[Bjorn Against]

54. So link to some scientific journal articles that support what you are saying.

You keep arguing that you are looking at science but you have yet to cite a single study to back up your claims. And don't forget if you are going to call it science then it needs to have been peer reviewed. Good luck finding the links to those studies.

[Stellabella]

17. You're confusing climate with weather.

One of the consequences of global warming in the climate means larger temperature swings in weather.

[AndyA]

18. I believe that global climate change is very real.

We must develop ecologically sound habits, recycle, and get the worldwide population explosion under control. Earth can only take so much, and we must start reversing some of the damage we've caused.

[patrice]

19. Your assumption that there is anything even remotely resembling an equal footing for the pro and con

is WRONG.

"progressives should no more be wedded to the notion of man-made global warming than conservatives should be opposed to it"

For a very long time, by far the preponderance of power, a.k.a. money, in the USA has been used in support of the opinion that Global Climate Change is not happening or does not matter. Since time IS a crucial factor, the notion that NOW we should give equal consideration to opposing opinions, when in fact many hi$torical factor$ are mitigating again$t objective decisions and new opinions have a distinctly minor constituency, is quite simply laughable.

Simply put, there is NOTHING like parity between the two points of view and pretending that there is is a joke. Anti-ecology forces have the advantage by far, so Pro-ecology forces should be weighted in light of that fact.

[mrs_p]

20. as others have said

it is more accurate to say global climate change. some places, indeed, will get warmer, others cooler, others wetter, others drier. it is the rate of change that is the biggest concern, as species will not have enough time to adapt and may die off.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

22. Overall warming can cause record cold or exceptionally heavy rainfall

instead of warmth, thanks to disruption of global air circulation patterns.

I grew up in Minnesota, left in 1984, and returned in 2003.

To someone who just moved to Minnesota recently, for instance, today's HIGH of -5° may seem amazing, but by the standards of the winters I experienced from the 1960s to the 1980s, it's just business as usual. In 1972, the temperatures didn't go above zero AT ALL for nearly a month. After four mild winters, this winter is a modest return to normalcy, not an indication of "global cooling."

Even the snowfall in the Pacific Northwest is not unprecedented.

[Poiuyt]

23. My cousin is a professor at a major Ivy League college and does research in climate change

He said that global warming IS occurring, but you need to look at the data collected from all around the world and over the course of decades. Yes, it might be cold in one area, or we could have a cold winter for a year or two, but on the whole, things are warming up.

[baldguy]

25. More energy is a system makes it more chaotic.

It means higher highs and lower lows, and more violent changes between them.

[Richard D]

24. 81 degrees in Southern Cal.

Not normal not even for here.

As to the cold, well, we had record cold here a couple weeks ago. My understanding is that the cold is likely coming from the melting polar ice cap putting vast amounts of cold water into the northern oceans. That's causing a slowdown of the normal warm water flows from the tropics to the north. Hence colder weather - temporarily.


On edit: Just saw that that is what the link posted above said.

[dysfunctional press]

26. it's called "winter"...weather and climate are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

i blame it on the american educational system- it sucks, and we're breeding generations bereft of any real intellect. just as the oligarchy has envisioned.

[patrice]

51. "Just another brick in the wall." Programed to parrot and obey. nt

[tridim]

27. We're having a very mild winter in Denver.

Mostly mid-40's and little snow so far.

And compared to winters in the 70's, this is nothing.

[Alhena]

28. The mountains behind Denver have seen heavy snow I believe

I know Aspen was talking about keeping one of their ski areas open a few extra weeks so they must have decent snow.

[Birthmark]

31. A cold winter hardly makes a climate.

That's called weather.

Climate is complex. There are many forcings and feedbacks, and much interplay between them. However, CO2 is a greenhouse gas. As long as it continues to increase, the temperature will increase, barring some other forcing or feedback overwhelming the effect. There's no way around that. So far, there's no reason to believe that GW has stopped or reversed. Anyone who says it has is telling you a bad story with no justification.

[Greyhound]

32. Just watch Gore's film, it explains how this works. n/t

[Parker CA]

33. 76 degrees in SF Bay Area yesterday. Definitely not normal. 10-20 degrees above avg. n/t.

[anigbrowl]

45. Yeah, though I have to admit I enjoyed. I hate the cold.

[Blue_In_AK]

34. Having just come off an almost record-breaking cold year

overall and two weeks of well below zero temperatures, I can understand your doubts, but I still believe this is just an anomaly. A lot of factors are at play, but I believe it's difficult to deny that human activity is affecting the climate.

http://www.adn.com/626/story/651778.html

[jpak]

35. I live in Maine and we have not had any "record cold"

Winters were much colder here 40 years ago.

and we have many southern bird species that have appeared in the state and even overwinter here over the same period.

How soon we forget the summer of 2007....

[Old and In the Way]

48. Have a pair of cardinals feeding at my feeder as I type this.

That's pretty unusual for my area (central Maine).

Yeah, back in the 50's I have pics of snow banks 15 feet high in front of my home I grew up in...on the Maine coast. Wehaven't had those kind of winters in 45 years.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

41. It's global climate change, not necessarily warming

A change of one degree in average temperature can wreak havoc with the climate, which can show up as colder temperatures in some regions.

[Terran]

42. Sooo, to sum this thread up...

Trying to understand climate change based on your own personal perceptions is like trying to encompass all the traffic patterns in your city by standing on a street corner watching the traffic go by. Neither strategy can possibly give you a true picture of what is happening.

By the way, we're having a high of 11 on Thursday, and it was 70 a couple of days ago. And this is becoming the norm. As other people have said, global warming's most obvious symptom is rapid changes in temperature and weather. It's happening, believe me.

[ima_sinnic]

43. no, no doubts whatsoever. you haven't heard the polar ice cap is melting?

you haven't noticed the extremes of tornadoes, hurricanes, extremely cold and extremely hot weather, anomalies in migrations of animals, polar bears being all but extinct, etc. etc.

The evidence is all around you.

Did you even see "An Inconvenient Truth"?

[zbdent]

44. OH MY GOD!!! SNOW!!! IN JANUARY!!! IN CLEVELAND!!!

Global climate change has to be a total scam cooked up by Al Gore!!!

:eyes:

[Old and In the Way]

46. I'm no climate scientist, but it really is a no-brainer.

The data is out there. But the debate has been politicized by those with a vested interest in keeping our energy decisions as per the status quo.

Here's my take.

What if we are wrong? Then we've acted in a responsible manner to keep our environment in better shape for future generations. Seems to be a very conservative position. Maybe we even create a whole new economy that allows economic growth via greener investments in green technology.

What if they are wrong? Then the damage they have done in not acting is probably irreparable, as we enter a runaway scenario where we cannot change the outcome of the condition that we have created.

Which side do you want to err on?

[patrice]

56. Right!! The TRULY CONSERVATIVE position is to end the Dominion of Fossil Fuels. nt

[Dukkha]

47. not for a second the evidence os rock solid

global warming/climate change is an indisputable fact. The deniers are greedy lazy right wingnuts who cling to their precious fossil fuels so they don't have to be inconvenienced in altering their lifestyles.

[neverforget]

49. When you take energy that is stored in the ground (fossil fuels such as

oil, coal, natural gas) and burn it in the atmosphere, it is going to have an effect.

[fascisthunter]

52. yeah.... it shouldn't be a political issue

says a person posting on a political discussion forum... okeedokee

[Balbus]

No doubts about global warming. A lot of doubt about man-made global warming.

[Balbus]

55. Dupe.