Your opening statement: '"TIA" is nonsense, using flawed methodology. It was wrong in 2004, and just as wrong in 2008. ...'
TIA's Nov 3 Projection:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4366707&mesg_id=4366707You should read the post before commenting. He had the RECORDED EV
exactly right at 365 and was within 0.2% of the popular vote (53.1%).
But TIA says he was wrong: Obama did
much better than 53.1%, just like Kerry did better than his 2004 Election Model projection of 51.3%. The 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.8-45.7%). The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% share.
But the landslide was denied. See
2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll.
Do you believe that Bush's "win" in 2004 was legitimate, i.e. not based on a fraudulent vote count?
Which of these statements do you disagree with?
(from
Some Election Facts the Media Does Not Want You to Know)
Uncomfortable election FACTS are never discussed in the media. The MSM will discuss non-existent "voter fraud" but not the FACT of on-going, pervasive election fraud. They never considered the FACT that undecided voters break for the challenger (Kerry and Obama) and did not factor this into the final pre-election polls. They never mention the FACT that (mostly Democratic) newly registered voters are not included in the final LV (likely voter) polls. They fail to discuss the FACT that millions of (mostly Democratic) votes are uncounted in every election. They never mentioned the FACT that the 2004/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated that there were (millions) more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were still living. They never questioned the FACT that the Final National and State exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. But they accept as a FACT the fiction that the recorded vote is the True Vote and therefore want us to believe there is no such thing as election fraud.
There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The vast majority are Democratic.
Undecided voters almost always break heavily (70-80%) for the challenger.
Registered voter (RV) polls include new voters (favoring Democrats); likely-voter (LV) polls do not.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election (favoring Republicans).
Neither RV or LV polls allocate undecided voters, so the final average pre-election poll margin is misleading.
Democrats won new voters in every election from 1988-2004 by a 14% average margin; Obama won by 43% in 2008.
The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the official, recorded vote count.
The Final 2004 NEP closely matched the 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin.
The Final 2008 NEP closely matched the 52.9-45.6% Obama recorded margin.
The number of returning voters from the prior election must be less than the number who actually voted due to mortality and turnout.
To match the recorded vote, the 2004 and 2008 Final NEP both indicated that there were more returning Bush voters than were still alive.
In 2004, the Final NEP indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters from 2000. But he only had 50.5 million recorded votes and approximately 2.5m died.
In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-47% and the preliminary National Exit Poll (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%.
In 2008, the Final NEP indicated 60.3 million returning Bush voters from 2004. But he only had 62.0 million recorded votes and approximately 3.0m died.
In 2008, the Final NEP indicated 11 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. Bush won by 3.0 million recorded votes.
The returning voter anomalies had the effect of decreasing the Kerry and Obama vote shares by 3-4%.
If the Final NEP indicates an impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates that the Final is impossible.
If the Final NEP is impossible, since it is matched to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible.
If the Final NEP is impossible, then all of the demographic cross tabs are impossible.
Since the 2004 and 2008 Final NEP were both impossible and matched to the recorded vote, the recorded vote counts were impossible.
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