What the hell has happened to the weather forecasting?

[Ilsa]

The Weather Channel, Weather Underground have been missing our winter lows pretty significantly here in south Texas. They were forecasting 42F for the low for today, but it has hit 32. People in some areas could have burst pipes over this. I've looked online, and I haven't seen a good forecast for today for my area yet. I can see missing a cold front by a half day or so, but 10 degrees off?

[tekisui]

1. Here in NC, we have had record highs one day, and two days later,

record lows. Trees are starting to bud out, already. With snow forecast for tomorrow.

[nc4bo]

7. The trees and shrubs...

Was taking my mom to a doc appt the other day and we were commenting on how the trees never lost that reddish hue in their stems and branches like they usually do during the winter. They usually get that look just just before spring arrives but seems this year it's coming way too early.

The trees and shrubs definitely look like they're on the verge of budding and leafing up.

[Ilsa]

9. We have pecans down here. A temporary warmup doesn't fool them.

I hope you don't lose trees or fruit from them.

[tekisui]

11. They budded early the past two years.

We lost a lot of apples with an early spring/late frost. For the most part, they aren't fooled, but this is the earliest I've seen buds set.

[TechBear_Seattle]

2. Sudden global climate change

Yes, this kind of weather is caused by global warming. Basically, the planet's weather patterns are changing too quickly for existing forecast models and tools to accurately predict what will happen. Models of global warming created more than thirty years ago predicted that a warming planet would cause summers to be longer and hotter, and winters to be shorter and more intense. This is exactly what we are seeing now.

[sweetpotato]

3. I've noticed the same thing about the Weather Channel's forecasts

They've been off about 10 degrees for a while now in my area. My husband thinks that their computer has a problem that they haven't found yet.

[Botany]

4. I work outdoors and weather underground has always been spot on ...

.... missing a nightly low by 10 degrees is easy to explain ..... if the cloud cover
lifts than a lot more "heat" will go away @ night.

Contact W.U. if you have any real questions.

BTW I love Weather Underground.

[Ilsa]

12. Wouldn't they have figured the cloud-clearing into that forecast?

It explains why it is cold this morning, but not why they missed it. Yesterday afternoon when the clouds cleared, I figured we'd have a really cold night. I could figure that much out. Why couldn't they figure it into their forecast?

[Botany]

20. Depends

on what kind of radar coverage they have

on what the Sat. imagines are telling them

how many local data points they have.

and on what parameters they use when making projections ....
if they plug in X, Y, Z data then the forecast should be N

[underpants]

5. Weather.com needs to get rid of that damned graph on the hour-by-hour page

and I really don't need to know the changes in 15 minute increments

As a runner I check the weather several times a day and I have found it to be all over the place myself.

[islandmkl]

6. my weather guy has the easiest job in the industry:

almost everyday, the weather forecast for st. croix:

High: lower -to-mid 80°s, Low: mid-70°s...slight chance of scattered rain somewhere...some clouds somewhere, too

[Ilsa]

13. 'Cept maybe for when hurricanes spill your way! LOL nt

[meegbear]

8. They're a bunch of flip-floppers ...

One day they say it's sunny and the next day they say it isn't. Well which is it?

Damn wafflers!

[FarCenter]

10. Use the National Weather Service forecasts

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/organization.php

Enter your city, state in the box at the upper left, or chose your weather office in the main page.

Better information and no advertising.

[Ilsa]

16. NOAA is saying it is 46 degrees here now. Local sources say it is 36 on one, 41 on another.

36 on one, 41 on another. All sources have revised the high for today from 73 down to 68. I guess all of them figured they got it wrong.

[islandmkl]

14. i used to live south of tampa...tampa bay is large enough to affect the weather...

for a great area...therefore, the weather can vary markedly within a 'tv/radio' area...

it is going to rain, somewhere in the viewing/listening area, almost every day....but, of course, they don't always know where unless it is a huge system that will 'rain on everybody'...

one morning a couple of years ago, the forecast was for 5% chance of rain in the area...the area being about 100+ miles in all directions from Tampa...

5%...in other words, one of you listeners is going to get rained on, we just don't have any idea where...

[Ilsa]

17. This city isn't large enough to be affected that way. nt

[Odin2005]

15. Global warming is making the computer models less accurate, maybe?

[Ilsa]

19. I'm wondering about this as well. They need to rework their

models for new data coming in about GW.

[DainBramaged]

18. Here

[Ilsa]

22. Your device would probably be more accurate! Thanks! nt

[DainBramaged]

28. I swear they are using these instead of computers

[MadHound]

21. I've found that modern construction in Texas is really, really foolish

Contractors down there build houses and apartment buildings like it's never going to get below freezing, thus they don't insulate between the interior and exterior walls, don't insulate pipes, etc. etc. Yet at least once every other year, temperatures drop and people get screwed. Not to mention the fact that insulation is also great for keeping buildings cool, of vital importance in Texas.

Can anybody explain why this is so? I go down to visit friends in Texas during the winter, and it seems like they've always got a notice to drip the faucets to prevent freezing in effect, it all seems like so much waste that could be prevented with a bit of forethought and insulation.

[Ilsa]

23. They build for how buildings look. In many areas of Texas, they should

be including solar arrays on the roof or yard, rain-catching and gray water-saving technologies, etc. I won't buy a new home here, even if the energy rating is better than my old house. The next house I want needs to be designed with the future in mind: zoned for activity, etc.

[Arkansas Granny]

24. Our weatherman was talking about our "roller coaster" weather patterns

this morning. He compared the jet stream to someone snapping a jump rope creating steep peaks and valleys and said that was responsible for our temperature extremes. Makes weather predictions very difficult.

I found this interesting animation of the North American jet stream.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_modelsml.html

This is our local forecast for the next week. Look at the difference in our high temps between Friday and Tuesday.

[berni_mccoy]

25. Not arguing your point about accuracy of the weather forecasting but 32 degrees

Is not likely to burst water pipes. Even though that's the freezing point of water, most water in pipes isn't going to freeze from an outside temp of 32 as long as the ambient temperature of the house is warmer than that. Furthermore, water in pipes will burst only if the water isn't running, which means you'd most likely need to be without power.

[Ilsa]

27. True, but the point remains. If they had forecasted 37 and missed it by 10 degrees,

it is possible some pipes could have problems overnight.

[siligut]

26. I have trusted The Old Farmer’s Almanac before.

It has been incredibly accurate in its predictions. However the freak snowstorms we had in the NW and SW this last December, something that came through from Canada, were not accurately predicted. The Almanac said expect the usual snowfall and what we got was anything but usual. I would dare say global climate change is making the old prediction methods less exact.