Is Carlyle Next to Go Bust? - Democratic Underground

Stephanie

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Thu Jan-01-09 06:53 PM
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Is Carlyle Next to Go Bust?

Sweet Schadenfreude...

The Ultimate Bubble?
At a lavish conference in Monaco, the game was guessing which big private-equity firm will be first to go bust. But the smoke and mirrors that wrecked the global economy might actually save the likes of K.K.R. and Blackstone.
by MICHAEL WOLFF
February 2009

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/02/wolff200902

Here’s a parlor game, played best by the people who are in it: Which private-equity firm’s going bust first? Carlyle? Fortress? K.K.R.? Cerberus? Apollo? Could it even be mighty Blackstone, with its vast real-estate holdings? Which of these one-word-branded enterprises (the word should emphasize strength, opacity, and preferably be culled from mythology—though no one in private equity, rest assured, reads his Bulfinch’s) that make up what’s been called the world’s “shadow banking system” will collapse and, in the domino pattern of this financial crisis, take the other firms with it?
There’s an urgency to this question because no big firm has actually gone bust—yet. All of the behemoth investment groups that sit on top of trillions of dollars of the largest capital accumulation outside the public markets remain suspended over the global economy like awfully big shoes waiting to drop. The wait increases both the suspense and the bitchiness of the game: somehow every private-equity guy (private-equity guys have been among the most unpopular figures of the great bubble) feels he’s been more prudent and responsible than all the others. Given the credit crunch, no private-equity deals are getting done now—chances are that what you’re doing with your idle hours as a P.E. man is trying to figure out who deserves to crash and burn before you.

There’s an urgency to this question because no big firm has actually gone bust—yet. All of the behemoth investment groups that sit on top of trillions of dollars of the largest capital accumulation outside the public markets remain suspended over the global economy like awfully big shoes waiting to drop. The wait increases both the suspense and the bitchiness of the game: somehow every private-equity guy (private-equity guys have been among the most unpopular figures of the great bubble) feels he’s been more prudent and responsible than all the others. Given the credit crunch, no private-equity deals are getting done now—chances are that what you’re doing with your idle hours as a P.E. man is trying to figure out who deserves to crash and burn before you.

For reasons that, at this particular moment in economic time, make little sense—and border on the totally embarrassing—I was in Monaco recently at a business conference that attracted many private-equity types who are still traveling grandly on the 2 percent fees private-equity firms pay themselves on the money they’ve raised. At my table in the ballroom of the Hôtel de Paris, in Monte Carlo, at a dinner hosted by Prince Albert of Monaco, there was a gentleman whose company, backed by private equity, had gone public and risen to $130 a share, but had, through the terrible autumn, dropped to $17. To my left there was a gentleman from K.K.R.—the seminal name in the corporate-buyout business, having survived and profited off a quarter-century’s worth of bubbles and busts. Actually, the gentleman joined K.K.R. after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, where he had been for many years. (By my quick calculation, in all that time of being compensated with Lehman stock, he probably lost between $30 and $120 million in the collapse. Still, he seemed to have homes in London, Dubai, and New York.) I asked, lowering my voice, “So … who’s on the brink?”

“Carlyle,” he responded darkly. Indeed, Carlyle Capital Corporation, the arm of the Carlyle Group that invests in mortgage-backed securities, had defaulted last spring on more than $16 billion.

==more at link==