Which SCOTUS judges may step down in the next few years? How will it change the tilt of the Court?

[Lil Missy]

Seems to me, the oldest and most likely members to retire are on the liberal side. Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer. And possibly Kennedy. (swing vote)

I'm not sure how we gain by replacing 3 liberals with another 3 liberals. It just leaves us in the same position.

Is there a more positive scenario that I am missing? But, of course, a Democratic President is a step in the right direction. And at least that stops the tyranny in the wrong direction.

Talk to me. What are your thoughts?

[Skink]

1. We have a constitutional lawyer replacing them.

Instead of GW.

[Lil Missy]

6. That doesn't answer my question. How does replacing 3 liberals with 3 liberals change anything?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

16. The SCOTUS is crucial because we absolutely cannot lose the liberal justices we have there now.

The Republicans have been appointing very young RWers that will be there for a generation. Stevens is very old. If a RWer had appointed hi replacement, it would have left 5 young RW justices on the court and destroyed any hope of progression for the next ten or twenty years.

Every justice Obama appoints is a step away from the threat of having the conservative majority.

[cali]

29. Kennedy is decidedly not a liberal. And replacing Kennedy, a swing vote,

with someone who reliably votes with the "liberal bloc", would make a big difference.

[StreetKnowledge]

2. We need to replace Kennedy with a Liberal, too.

Best way to go about it. That would give us a 4-3 edge, which would stop any more 2000 election fiascos or any chance of decisions against stuff like Roe v. Wade.

[Lil Missy]

7. He's 72, so that's a possibility too. And btw, ...

there are 9 SCOTUS Judges, not 7. :)

[Smarmie Doofus]

3. I'm worried that Obama takes himself seriously as a post-ideology

president and will appoint a non-progressive... tilting the court irrevocably to the right for as far as the historical eye can see.

[Lil Missy]

8. OMFG, that would make my head explode!

[ColbertWatcher]

18. Here's hoping he doesn't make another ...

... Palin pick, opps, my bad, I meant to post Warren, opps, did it again, I really meant to say Dominionist.

I'm hoping he doesn't pick another Dominionist.

[elleng]

4. Stevens

Will take a while to 'gain' anything.

[BrklynLiberal]

5. The best that I can come up with is that at least it won't be anymore

RW wackos that are nominated for the SCOTUS...I hope.

[TahitiNut]

9. Stevens (age 88) is the eldest and most likely to retire.

In descending order of age, the SCOTUS Justices are ...
Stevens (age 88) - appointed by Ford (R) and regarded as liberal
Ginsberg (age 75) - appointed by Clinton (D) and regarded as liberal
Scalia (age 72) - appointed by Reagan (R) and regarded as a fascist
Kennedy (age 72) - appointed by Reagan (R) and regarded as centrist
Breyer (age 70) - appointed by Clinton (D) and regarded as moderate-liberal
Souter (age 69) - appointed by Bush41 (R) and regarded as moderate-liberal
Thomas (age 60) - appointed by Bush41 (R) and regarded as fascist-sociopath
Alito (age 58) - appointed by Bush43 (R) and regarded as fascist
Roberts (age 53) - appointed by Bush43 (R) and regarded as fascist

We can only hope that age is not kind to Scalia.

[Lil Missy]

12. Thanks for laying out the pecking order. I did not realize Scalia was so far up there.

Yeah, Scalia has to go, but I don't want to say anything unkind ....

Thomas?? Don't EVEN get me started on that sexist pervert fucking asshole bonehead criminal. (See, I'm very reserved about things and people like this. :) )

[TygrBright]

14. I have heard rumors that Scalia does not enjoy being on the Supreme bench.

He finds it "boring" and doesn't get enough chances to make high-profile appearances, speeches, etc. And maintaining the appearance of judicial impartiality (I'm sure he really believes he's doing that, amazing as it sounds) grates on him.

It's just possible that Nino might bow out, especially if it looks like Obama is doing a great job, likely to win a second term, and likely to be succeeded by another Democrat unfriendly to fascism.

diffidently,
Bright

[TahitiNut]

23. I've read the same rumors. I'll believe it when he's gone.

:shrug: I might just get drunk for the first time in 20 years if he leaves.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

19. I'm just shocked that Bush didn't try to appoint some college Republican and really screw us for 30

or 40 years.

[TahitiNut]

22. Alito and Roberts are the youngest and steadfastly right-wing.

He did bad enough ... Alito barely won confirmation with a 58-42 vote. Roberts was 78-22 mostly because of his "stealth" record.

Thomas, of course, got the slimmest margin with a 52-48 vote ... and even that was despicably too favorable to him.

[bluestateguy]

10. Stevens

his good health may have saved Roe v. Wade.

[TexasObserver]

11. Stephens, Ginsberg, Breyer, Souter, Kennedy.

And if we're lucky, Scalia.

[Lil Missy]

13. That fuckin' Scalia will probably live to be 105.

x(

[TexasObserver]

17. If there's a God ....

Where's that Old Testament God when you need him?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

20. If he does, he'll probably keep Thomas going ala Weekend at Bernies, too.

Nobody would notice the difference.

[Creideiki]

32. That or Thomas will leave, too

Thomas has always been Scalia's sock-puppet.

[dysfunctional press]

15. i'm hoping stevens gets into a knife fight with clarence thomas in the scotus showers...

that ends with thomas on the floor with a shiv sticking out of his belly.

:shrug:
a guy can fantasize, can't he?

[Lil Missy]

24. Yeah, but I don't think we are allowed to say or speculate like that on DU. n/t

[dysfunctional press]

25. ...

:eyes:

i guess you're one of those people who need one of these: :sarcasm: to recognize it then?

[Lil Missy]

26. No. I did not think you were serious.

I guess my point went entirely over your head.

[dysfunctional press]

33. you had a point?

how could it go over my head when it didn't even get off the ground?

[backscatter712]

21. Anything can happen in four or eight years.

Any one of the nine could be hit by a bus tomorrow.

More likely is that on top on one or more of the liberal justices retiring, I'd say that Scalia's probably the most likely conservative justice to retire, followed by Thomas, though both of them are likely to try to hold out as long as possible to avoid giving a conservative seat to Obama to refill. Alito and Roberts aren't likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

[Statistical]

31. Sometimes a draw is a win.

Lets say on 3 liberal judges retire and are replaced by Obama with 3 more liberal judges.

Some would say booo... we didn't change the court.

Think of the reverse though.

If McCain had won and 3 liberal judges had retired replaced with say 1 moderate + 2 conservatives.
That would be a radical change in the courts makeup.

So Obama may not get chance to push the court to the left however he is playing "defense" and keeping the court from going to right.

Justices often will wait to retire when they feel a President is in office who will replace them with someone similar.

So if that happened some of the oldest left leaning judges would be replaced with some of the youngest left leaning judges.
The court is preserved and now the right leaning judges stack the older end of the court.

If Obama gets a 2nd term and a Dem replaces Obama many will have no choice but to retire/die when the "other team is in office".

[Politicalboi]

27. We can hope Scalia

Goes hunting with Cheney after he leaves office at Cheney's undisclosed location.

[Lil Missy]

28. Naw, Cheney would not endanger Scalia. More likely,

they'd find a goat for Thomas to fuck.

[TexasProgresive]

30. Even if 3+1 retire and are replaced by Obama

that is a win not having b*sh or McPain doing the selecting. Maybe there is no net change but that is better then the alternative.