How many years until full, equal marriage rights are the law of the land in the United States?

[ruggerson]

my guess is that as more Northeast and Western states legalize it, various cases will wend their way up to the USSC, which will issue a second Loving Vs Virginia decision and strike down all the various laws and state constitutional amendments against it.

The question is when.

[Mike 03]

1. Four years is my guess. I think it will happen more quickly than most people think.

I also think the death penalty will be a thing of the past within four or six years--another move forward that will dawdle slowly in increments until it advances all at once and just happens in a series of months.

[H2O Man]

2. It depends upon the case

taken to the Supreme Court. I believe that there are two avenues for taking the issue to the federal courts which can and should resolve this, in a positive manner, within three years.

[ruggerson]

3. One being a violation of the fourteenth amendment

and the equal protection clause I would imagine.

What's the second? Full faith and credit?

[H2O Man]

16. 1 & 14

[customerserviceguy]

8. The way the Supreme Court is currently constituted

you'll not like the result. Even if Souter, Ginsberg and Stevens are replaced by President Obama, they will be replacing votes we've already got.

My hope is that NO marriage equality case reaches the Court for the next ten years or so, that will give time for Scalia and Thomas to die off and be replaced. I voted for fifteen or more years. Hopefully when the court considers this in 2025 or so, they will not have to overrule a precident from 2009 or 2010 that said that states have the right to discriminate, that's not a very long period of time to set aside stare decisis.

In the current climate, we have only a couple of states that recognize equal marriage, and only a small handful that recognize civil union or domestic partnership. We also have about thirty state constitutions that have anti-equality as the law of the land, most of the amendments soiling those constitutions within the last ten years. Anybody expecting a Loving v. Virginia decision, where racial discrimination in marriage operated sporadically in only a few places is going to be sadly mistaken.

Our very best hope is to have the civil union/domestic partnership model expand through the blue states, even those that have the evil amendments. The next generation of Americans will see that loving couples of every orientation are being treated unfairly, and will begin to take apart the structure that has solidified against equality. It's my hope that by 2025, more than half of the states that added hate to their constitutions will have repealed it, and the Supreme Court of that day will simply recognize what is now obvious only to those of us who truly see.

[ruggerson]

9. Don't be so surprised if Kennedy votes the right way

he wrote the majority opinion in both Lawrence and Roemer, I believe.

And he's the fifth vote.

[customerserviceguy]

12. That's true about Kennedy

but in the case of Lawrence, the Court was looking at a United States that had effectively decriminalized sexual conduct between consenting adults in most places. Less than half of the states had criminal penalties for private homosexual activity when Lawrence was ruled on, and many places had liberalized their laws in the thirty or so years leading up to Lawrence. I contrast that with the growing number of states that have added anti-equality amendments to their constitutions in the last 10-12 years.

It is a difficult thing for the Supreme Court to go against the expressed will of the people at the ballot box, when the trend seems to clearly be going the other way. The Court often speeds up the progress of the slower parts of the nation in keeping with the trends where the more progressive states have been leading, but we have yet to see a single state completely reject marriage inequality at the polls.

Also, the Lawrence decision reversed the earlier (17 years) decision of Bowers v. Hardwick that allowed states to criminalize gay sex, but curiously did not allow them to criminalize private consenting heterosexual behavior. So, even in the decision that Lawrence overruled, some of the laws against sexual conduct were continuing to crumble.

Let's also not forget that O'Connor voted with Kennedy on Lawrence, as she's been replaced by Alito, there's a vote we've lost. It will be critical for President Obama to make sure that his nominees have a solid commitment to the principle of equality in order for us to win if a case does make it to the Court in the next half dozen years. If someone slips by him, we will definitely be handed a decision we're going to be stuck with for most of a generation.

[H2O Man]

17. Yes and no.

Depends on the case. It can be done, but it might take a different approach than is anticipated by the opposition. It really can be done.

[Sebastian Doyle]

4. I'd say it will happen within the next decade. Hopefully sooner.

California certainly has brought national attention to the issue. First with the court decision, and the resulting weddings, then with the homophobic Prop H8 and the protests after its unfortunate and sickening passage.

The state courts that have ruled in favor of civil unions or gay marriage have done so on the basis of equal treatment under the law, specifically citing the 14th amendment. No doubt that more state courts will do so in the next few years.

By the time the case reaches the US Supreme Court, they're going to have a Hell of a time making a case against it for any valid legal reasons. Not that "valid" or "legal" are any guarantees when it comes to Bush Crime Family appointees on the SCOTUS (see December 12, 2000) but it's gonna be tough for even Fat Tony Scalia to fabricate a reason to rule against it.

Especially after he himself performed the same sex wedding of Denny Crane and Alan Shore :evilgrin:

[uppityperson]

5. I don't know, can't predict, but it won't be soon enough.

[barbtries]

6. i say within 5 years

for two reasons: 1. that's enough for any of the new laws to get to the supreme court.
2. i didn't think i'd see a black person elected president in my lifetime.

[Nightflurry]

7. Not before at least a few more couples die wishing they could marry.

People only get to live once. It's inhuman to ask them to waste that precious time away while we get around to their rights.

I really don't know how long it will take before I can marry my partner. One hopes that it won't be long.

[Odin2005]

10. I'll guess within 10 to 15 years.

Probably not until there are more liberals on the SCOTUS.

[Lyric]

11. Gay Equality in South Carolina?

It would require the use of the National Guard to force it to happen, but it might--in fifty years or so.

*sigh*

[Stinky The Clown]

13. I'd guess five years or less .........

.... no matter how bleak it seems today.

[Rowdyboy]

14. Prop 8 was devastating....My best guess is 20-25 years.....

[mondo joe]

15. I am not waiting no 15 fucking years to get married.

Just saying.

[fortyfeetunder]

18. Wait for the dissenters to expire....

I leave it to Gen X, Y, Millenials to implement this one.