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Edited on Wed Dec-17-08 11:02 AM by Phoebe Loosinhouse
There have been real estate bubbles before. Previously, it has taken approximately 10 years to completely cycle from high point to bust to reattainment of high point. After the S&L debacle there was a lot of previously overvalued real estate. I lived in New England then which was not really impacted too much by the S&Ls which seemed to be more Southern and Western. But, there was still a boom and bust in New England. The hardy New Englanders just hunkered down for the most part and did not go into foreclosure but just gritted their teeth and paid the mortgages on their underwater properties. In time the properties recovered and they were no longer underwater. I remember For Sale By Owners being for sale for years because the owners refused to reduce the price, but eventually the market caught up to them and they sold
But, I do believe that it was very common in the S&L states to just hand over the keys and say "I'm outta here!". I think the Southern and Western populations were more transient in general than the crusty moss covered New Englanders who hated to move out of their ancestral haunts.
So what I am trying to say is that if you bought property even with nothing down because you loved the house and felt like it would be your long term shelter, you're more likely to stay. If you bought with the idea, "this will do for now and in 2 years we'll flip it and buy something better" than you have no real emotional ties to the property. In the second case, many probably would be happy to walk more than stay.
I think this bubble is different from others in terms of size and scope. I think it may be years and years before we see values get to back to the height, if ever. Many people do not realize that TO THIS DAY Japanese real estate has not returned to the heights of the eighties. The Japanese made the decision like the New Englanders to just suck it up. I believe that I have read that some 100 year mortgages were written in order to keep people in homes and the banks from being declared insolvent.
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