The Exit Poll Might be Wrong

[yardwork]

There has been a lot of discussion here about the exit poll showing that 70% if African American voters supported the California ban on gay marriage, as opposed to 53% of Latina/o voters and fewer than 50% of white voters. Now that the mainstream media is headlining this issue I expect that discussion will become even more heated.

Some of us are genuinely interested in learning why such a high percentage of African Americans in California voted to this way. Others have raised strong concerns about seeming to blame one segment of the population. There have been good discussions but also some overreactions. There is also pervasive misunderstanding of the meaning of the data.

One really important point has been mentioned several times but seems to be overlooked - THE EXIT POLL MIGHT NOT BE ACCURATE.

For one thing, the 70% figure is based on a very small sample size. In fact, the sample size is so small, the pollsters were unable to give a figure for African American men. Remember that exit polls are only a small sample of the actual number of people who cast their votes. Please keep this in mind.

The other thing to keep in mind is that exit polls don't reflect actual votes. They reflect what people say to pollsters. Sometimes people don't report the truth to pollsters, especially when their friends and family are right next to them. We don't know for sure that a majority of African Americans voted to ban civil rights of others just because a small sample of people polled while leaving the voting booths said they did. Likewise, we can't say for sure that fewer than half of the white people voted the way they said they voted. Exit polls aren't necessarily reliable.

Finally, we need to be wary of the use that mainstream media and others are making of this data. The Establishment is always trying to divide minorities against one another. It's no accident that the hate-filled Proposition 8 and similar measures in three other states were pushed during the same election that showed an African American Democrat likely to win the White House. These people fight dirty. Remember that.

Let's work together - not separately. They want to divide us. Don't let them.

[tjwash]

1. Californians in general are just not as liberal or open as we are portrayed.

The Mormons and Catholics bankrolled this, but it was ultimately the voters that had to decided it. One of the biggest "to blame" groups seems to be the so-called influx of Latino voters that allegedly flooded the polls to vote for Obama, and voted no on 8 because of their predominately Catholic background.

I have a little problem with this theory, in that if there actually was a massive influx of Latino voters that was able to swing the vote so heavily to the YES side of prop 8, then why was Prop 4; which was nothing but a backdoor anti-abortion proposition, as soundly trounced as it was Tuesday night? There was really no hint of a battle at the polls on 4. At all. Being from Cali myself, the one thing that Latinos in California are very passionate about, are the very vocal and fervent anti-abortion stances that the community holds. So if the "blame the Latin-Americans" theory was true, then 4 should have easily gotten passed as well.

No. I think that there are 2 possibilities. The first one, being that the ballot boxes were stuffed, and the voting was rigged. The second, is that there are a hell of a lot more bigoted assholes in California that we will admit to having here. Sadly, I am starting to lean to the latter, and am starting to think that the people of California are just that bigoted against GLBT's. Believe me, it sucks to have to admit that, but there it is. As much as the desire is to point the finger at a certain group of people, I can't. With the exclusion of the Gay and Lesbian voters, we can pretty much spread the blame for this one across all of the California voting demographic.

The thing is...it looked real promising on the runup to the election polls. Likewise, the exit polling looked good. Just makes one realize that the "Bradley Effect" is alive and well. We seem to have defeated it in regards to race, but it is alive and well, and working against the Gay community.

[yardwork]

8. I'm a little confused about your post. Is there a typo?

A vote "for" Proposition 8 was a vote to amend the constitution to ban gay marriages and civil unions. A vote "no" was actually a vote in favor of civil rights.

According to the exit polls, only 53% of Latina/o voters supported the ban. This is a smaller than predicted percentage. The exit polls also show that fewer than 50% of whites supported the bigotry. So, without African American voters (the reasoning goes), the bigoted proposition would have been defeated. It was the enormous support among African American voters (7 out of 10) that pushed the bigoted proposition to win.

I'm saying that the exit polls themselves may not be an accurate reflection of how people actually voted.

[tjwash]

32. Dude...they spent over 20 million dollars to push this through.

So a few bucks thrown around to rig exit polls, and try a little last minute vote suppression is definitely not out of the question.

No typo...I've been listening to people for the last 2 days try to tell me now about how it was "the Mexicans" that fucked up prop 8. Now that that has been debunked, people are pointing the fingers at the African-Americans. And its the damn press here in San Diego that is the worst offender of that.

Divide and conquer politics as usual in California. In the meantime the Mormons and Catholics have their way as usual.

[yardwork]

33. I'm not a dude but that's ok....I'm still a little puzzled by your posts but we seem to agree

on several points.

[Sukie]

14. Is there anyway that the prop's wording could have misled

the voters? I know that when we had to vote on it two years ago, people kept getting confused as to what a no or a yes vote actually meant. I had to keep correcting people.

[yardwork]

16. I'm certain that that played a role. Heck, we get confused talking about it here.

On the other hand, wouldn't that confusion be equal on both sides? Likely to cancel each one out?

The fact is that the "Yes on 8" campaign was heavily funded and promoted. Lots of people went to the polls with "Yes on 8" in their minds, encouraged by their preachers.

[Irishonly]

23. It may have been

One of my sil is gay and not political. She brought her ballot over for help. She thought a yes vote meant you were for civil rights. I believe the wording on the measure was specifically done to confuse voters. Too often on these evil propositions a yes vote really means no.

The commercials were filled with lies. Too many people base their votes on hype and not research.

[tjwash]

29. They've done that before...several times as a matter of fact with Cali props.

We worked our asses off on prop X a few years ago, which was to stop the greedy land developers from tearing up pristine mountainside and building tract homes.

They worded the prop so that a No meant it passed and the developers could build all they wanted, and Yes meant it failed and they could destroy natural habitat.

It passed, we got screwed, and now there are a thousand empty mcmansions no one can afford now, making the hillside look like shit now.

[Gormy Cuss]

36. A comparison to Prop. 4 is appropriate I believe in terms of the effect of media advertising.

There was precious little effort to influence my vote on Prop. 4. Not on TV, not in the mailbox, not by robocalls, not in the form of billboards or lawn signs. People weren't talking about it.

I think the passage of Prop. Hate was based solely on the lopsided and constant barrage of misinformation by the pro-8 people. All it took was moving enough of the no opinion people to their side and overwhelming the media with their message seems to have done it. I'm willing to bet that without the concerted spending voters would have turned down the prop at about the same rate as Prop. 4.

It's not the first time that CA voters decided based on ads rather than reading the voter information booklet and it won't be the last. This state needs some serious reform on the proposition process. What we need are more nonbinding referenda and fewer props. asking voters to do the work of our legislators.

[IndianaJones]

2. very much in line with other polls I have seen on the subject. nt

[yardwork]

3. Can you provide some links? Because before we have this discussion

let's be sure that we're talking about real data and not some polling anomaly.

[IndianaJones]

6. this poll, taken before the SC primary, and right before our friend Donny showed up

http://www.scetv.org/television/productions/the_big_picture/winthrop_etv_polls/poll2/survey2page7.html

I've seen others that I would have to search for. African Americans are very similar to white fundamentalists in their attitudes toward these issues.

[yardwork]

24. That certainly reinforces the exit polling in California.

From the link above, African American responses to a 2007 poll show that 74.1% disapprove of sex between adults of the same sex. Wow.

----------------------------------------

I’m going to read a list of things that some people do. For each, thinking about your own values and morals, I’d like you to tell me whether you think it is acceptable or unacceptable.

The first is sex between two adults of the same sex. Is that acceptable or unacceptable? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Strongly Acceptable 11.5
Somewhat Acceptable 10.3
Somewhat Unacceptable 12.1
Strongly Unacceptable 62.0
Don't Know/Not Sure 3.4
Refused 0.6

---------------------------------------

[jonnyblitz]

4. let's not ignore the FACTS just because they make people

uncomfortable.

[yardwork]

9. I'm talking about the facts.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

5. There's No Reason To Believe They Were Inaccurate.

Exit polls shouldn't be dismissed outright just because someone doesn't like conclusions within them.

This is an important issue. It is vital to identify the groups that need the most work on the issue or progress cannot be made. Ignoring the large gap between yes and no votes within the AA community would be irresponsible and counter productive.

It is important information as it relates to the issue, but we should take care in using that information constructively and responsibly.

[yardwork]

10. I'm not dismissing them. Believe me, I'm very unpopular on DU right now

because I have refused to back down from discussion of this issue. I was totally pummeled in several threads last night, called a racist and a bigot and all kinds of names.

At the same time, we need to remember that these exit polls are based on a very small sample size.

[IndianaJones]

11. that is a ridiculous charge to make against you. nt.

[yardwork]

13. I know but whatcha gonna do? LOL!

Some of the folks who have praised me with great praises in the past are pretty mad at me today. One day you're up and the next you're down.

I look to Barack Obama as an example of how to keep my cool.

[gollygee]

7. How wrong do you think it's likely to be?

That's the only data we have, and I don't see any reason to think it's wrong other than that we'd LIKE it to be wrong.

If we want to affect reality, we have to start with a real understanding of reality, and the reality is that poll.

I really think those numbers can be changed. In fact, they might not have been that high if the Yes on 8 groups hadn't been hitting minority groups so hard with misinformation.

[yardwork]

12. Personally, I think that African Americans supported the amendment in very high numbers.

I'm not sure it was as high as 70%, and I'm not sure that there was such an extreme difference between the voting decision of African Americans and other groups.

However, it's clear that gay rights are not popular among many African Americans. We've seen this reflected in other ways. I live in the south. I know how strongly many black churches preach against "the sins of homosexuality."

So, instead of getting mad, we get to work.

[gollygee]

17. I agree with that

It's time to get constructive about this and figure out WHY the poll was that way.

[yardwork]

19. Yes, exactly. In fact, I think we know why, too.

The why is pretty clear.

Now we need to do something about it. I've been asking for help in that respect. So far, some good input from African American DUers has included:

1. Better education for everybody living in low-income communities, including peoples of every color of the rainbow.
2. Better outreach about the meaning of gay marriage and its impact on families.
3. Better visibility of GLBTQ people of color, including celebrities.
4. Portrayals of gay people in the media that extend beyond the white male upper-income stereotype that is so pervasive.
5. More communication between all people.

[Occam Bandage]

15. Keep grasping.

[yardwork]

18. Take a flying leap. Have you even read any of my posts over the past three days?

Take your sanctimonious straws and shove them.

[Occam Bandage]

20. I generally respect your postings, which is why I was so surprised to read this one.

There is no particular reason to believe that the exit polling is flawed here; it's in line with other polls I've seen about African-American views on homosexuality, and it's certainly in line with my personal experience growing up in a heavily African-American area. Sure, the exit polls might be off by a few points in either direction, but frankly I don't see any reason to believe that the exit polling is so unlikely to be representative that we ought discredit any conclusions drawn from them.

[yardwork]

21. And where did I suggest that it be discredited? I'm suggesting caution.

If you read the entire OP and the rest of my posts you might get a fuller understanding, but you prefer to post nasty one-liners and large graphics instead.

[Occam Bandage]

25. I don't really think there is a material difference

between a situation in which 66% of African-Americans voted for the amendment and one in which 70% of African-Americans voted for the amendment. Either way, the same problem exists, with the same solutions. Again, I'm not seeing where any "caution" above and beyond that which people generally exercise is called for. There is no particular reason to believe the exit polling is flawed to the extent that the errors would significantly impact either perception of the situation or our plans moving forward.

[yardwork]

26. The poll linked in post #6 certainly reinforces that view.

African Americans polled during 2007:

I’m going to read a list of things that some people do. For each, thinking about your own values and morals, I’d like you to tell me whether you think it is acceptable or unacceptable.

The first is sex between two adults of the same sex. Is that acceptable or unacceptable? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Strongly Acceptable 11.5
Somewhat Acceptable 10.3
Somewhat Unacceptable 12.1
Strongly Unacceptable 62.0
Don't Know/Not Sure 3.4
Refused 0.6

[cobalt1999]

22. Well, the polls were accurate in the other areas.

I don't see why they would fail in the one area you are uncomfortable with the results.

[yardwork]

27. Did you even read my OP? I'm not trying to excuse the results.

[cobalt1999]

31. I did. You said the sample size is too small and people might not have told the truth.

However, the sample size was good enough to be accurate in other areas, so that argument is a bit of a stretch.

Did people tell the truth? Harder to answer, but again they answered truthfully to the other questions.

Explain to me how your OP is "not trying to excuse the results", because casting doubts on the results is basically the same thing. It's saying I don't want to discuss the issue, so let's make the issue go away.

[theboss]

28. It seems to make sense when considering other numbers I've seen

And it goes along with a lot of anecdotal experiences.

Black people are by far and away the most religious people in the country.

[yardwork]

30. It's interesting that out of all the DUers calling me a racist over the past couple days

not one of them has shown up on this thread.

[yardwork]

34. kicking for those who have been calling people racists - I'm sure you have a comment?

[yardwork]

35. Kicking so that people calling me a racist can do it on my own thread.

[struggle4progress]

37. kick

:dem:

[bliss_eternal]

38. kicking

:kick:

[suston96]

39. BTW, what was the precise question asked by the exit pollsters?

And did they ask only blacks or did they ask everyone and then do some math to determine the numbers of blacks?

Any links to the exit poll itself and how it was done?

I have questions about the exit poll itself, too. Good question by the OP.