How will the DOW Industrial Average react to an Obama Win?

[ThomWV]

What will the Dow Industrial Average do immediately after Obama has won the election?

[BzaDem]

1. The market has already priced in an Obama win. n/t

[POAS]

2. The relief will be real

and the DOW will go up. Profit taking will ensue and a drop will follow to be followed by a period of settling down to a new "floor". Perhaps at about 6500 to 7000. As new economic models take hold and policies shift the market will start and slow and jerky recovery that will take years.

[HamdenRice]

3. I would say rise, but the win has probably been already priced in

as the first response said. On the other hand, there is still some amount of downward pressure that reflects the possibility of a McCain win/steal, or some other instability/uncertainty.

That said, the market also "bets" on what it expects other people to do. Because many traders think that other people may buy on an Obama win, they will buy. I think it was Keynes who said that playing the market is trying to figure out what average opinion thinks average opinion is.

Once he takes office, if he shows mastery of the subject matter, there could be a psychological rise.

But certainly, the long drop recently contains within it an element of hopelessness about the Bush administration's inability to handle this or any other crisis.

[TexasObserver]

4. UP. The certainty and relief will drive it UP.

I'll say the DOW will net gain 500 points in the three days following the election.

[OhioChick]

5. I don't see the market changing much

No matter who wins.

People need JOBS. With tremendous job loss, people cannot pay their mortgages, car payments, credit cards....or buy anything. Until the job market becomes healthy again, I expect to see wall st. suffer.

[Igel]

6. "Other".

Polls like this should always have an "other" option.