Gallup tracking poll mystery

[DavidDvorkin]

On the Gallup site, yesterday's numbers, using their traditional (as opposed to expanded) likely voter model, were Obama 49%, McCain 43%. Today, the numbers are 50% and 43%.

However, both Real Clear Politics and Drudge claim that the numbers were 49% and 47%, both yesterday and today. I think I saw the 49-47 number on Kos yesterday, too. Where does the 49-47 number come from? And why hasn't RCP fixed their page? Drudge shows the 49-47 number without a link, because he knows the link would contradict what he shows. RCP has the link to Gallup, but they still display the wrong number.

Very odd. I wonder if Gallup sent out the wrong number both days in a mailing to subscribers.

[mckara]

1. Traditional Voters

is where it appeared yesterday

[godai]

2. Likely voters and traditional voting patterns are needed to get it to 2%

Likely voters with expected larger turnout by new voters results in 6% favoring Obama. This is also on the Gallop site.

[bookman]

3. An Earlier Post

I had a post on this yesterday. I do think it was 49-47.

Du'ers help me understand what that meant.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7484998&mesg_id=7484998


I too was curious.

[TexasObserver]

4. Gallup is dirty, and they do this every few weeks to make McCain look stronger.

The did it last month, too.

Gallup is a whore for big business. Most of their income is derived from being a marketing subcontractor for global corporations. They create polls that will play favorably with clients like the conservative USA Today.

Gallup created a model that is skewed toward older, white people, toward Republicans, and that is the model they are using for the close poll.

Remember that Gallup is not polling in every state. They use their national poll to give them their numbers, and 1200 participants for a nationwide poll is a lot harder to make right than the same size poll for one state.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. I'm saying that Gallup has traditional voters at 50-43

Right here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111241/Gallup-Daily-Little-Impact-From-Debate-Far.aspx

I don't see the 49-47 number on their site, and I didn't see it here yesterday.

[WhollyHeretic]

7. Just go to gallup.com

Right on the top of the main page are the three polls.
Registered voters: 50-43
Likely Voters(expanded): 51-45
Likely Voters(traditional): 49-47

[4lbs]

6. Here's what the 3 sets of Gallup numbers are and what they mean.

First of all, the "main" number, is Obama 50% and McCain 43%.

That's just simple polling registered voters.


The second set of numbers, Likely (Traditional), is the one that Gallup shows Obama 49% and McCain 47%.

What does "Likely (Traditional)" mean?

It is just the subset of voters that Gallup has determined to be most likely to vote this year, based on their voting record for the past 4 years. So, if a voter has voted in the last Presidential election and each November since, they are placed in the Likely (Traditional) set.


The third set of numbers, Likely (Expanded), has Obama 51% and McCain 45%.

"Likely (Expanded)" includes the Likely (Traditional) set as well as first time voters and young voters (those 18-22 years old) who didn't vote in 2004 but said they definitely will vote this year. In addition, it includes many minorities who said they would definitely vote this year, but don't necessarily vote every year or may not have voted in 2004.

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Crap. You're right. I misread it.

Didn't see the table below and thought the graph was the traditional likely voters.

[Warpy]

9. I think they did put out the wrong number for a while

because wingnuts started crowing about it early in the afternoon.