Ok the DOW has maintained for half an hour

[nadinbrzezinski]

have we found a floor?

[originalpckelly]

1. No, yesterday was here or higher...

and when I came home it had tanked. The fall comes in the last part of the day when all the computers execute their trades at one time.

[bemildred]

7. Yep. Between two and four..

If we get to four without taking a dive, you might talk about a "floor".

[JuniperLea]

2. No...

We're only three hours into the trading day.

[question everything]

6. And this is Friday, when traders don't want to keep the bags

for whatever happens during the Weekend.

[marlakay]

3. they said on the news the last hour is the hour to watch nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. It has been for a few....

[Occam Bandage]

4. Too early to say, but I hope we're mostly through the selloff phase.

[napi21]

5. Who knows? Somebody this AM said they believed the floor was 8,200.

That's where it is right now. All anyone can do is wait.

[gravity]

9. This looks like a short term bottom

I don't know if it is THE bottom, but the market should stabilize out for a bit.

[phantom power]

10. heh. Funny how our expectations have lowered.

Seriously, it would be good for the markets to find a floor. Wherever it is, I assume it would help things start to unfreeze a little.

[JuniperLea]

11. I believe the support level is 7800-8400

We're getting closer, but I expect it to go at least to 8000... and don't expect it to rise with any speed after the bottom is hit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. This is how positive I am about this... it will reach the level it came down from

in about 25 years.. like oh the great depression

There are way too many parallels in fundamentals

I am just hoping that something positive starts to happen

[Fresh_Start]

12. I think the huge bounce indicated we don't have a floor

too many buyers still in the market

[TornadoTN]

39. Agreed. Bargain seekers are feeling out the market

I don't think we've seen any sustained investments at this point, perhaps in some sectors as they are near the floor (energy) but the rest of the market is still in a free fall.

[jayfish]

13. Jinx!

When it drops again you'll have no one to blame but yourself. ;-)

Jay

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Well we need to find a floor SOMETIME?

just wondering

[jayfish]

73. You've Got Some Strong Mojo There NB.

:toast:

Jay

[Mojorabbit]

16. Don't we have the auctions at 2pm?

That is when I expect it to drop again...if all does not go well.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. I think, don't quote me here, that we already did

but if they are yet to take place... give me the crow now, preemptively.

I need a snack

:-)

[Roland99]

55. Ayup...slight bounce up after uncertainty was removed but falling again

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4211769

[cwilheim]

18. Who knows?

We're looking at 1929, folks. Fortunately, we don't have Herbert Hoover at the helm, sitting on his hands doing nothing. I don't know if the bailout/rescue will work, but at least we're trying to head things off at the pass. I expect to see double-digit unemployment, lower tax revenues leading to a tax rate increase, and lots of businesses going out of business. We're at the tipping point, and who knows how far it will tip?

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. I am expecting a deep recession not quite a depression

but it will be painful never the less

[tuckessee]

20. It just hit -478.77. There is no floor.

Only pavement.


edit typo

[Critters2]

21. OMG. This is just amazing! I remember when it crahsed in '87.

What was that? -504, or something? But then right back up. This is much more scarier.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. WEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

I was just hoping that it had...

[tuckessee]

26. I wish it had found the floor as well.

Too many good people are losing too much money.

My fall garden harvest will be going to my retired neighbors instead of into my relatively young belly. They need it more than I do.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. I think they have priced in major non real-estate deflation already, so there's room for

a shocking short/put punishing rally. Everyone has to be punished... even the 'smart money.'

I would rather be holding stock at today's close than not only because the upside risk from the G7 meeting is higher than the downside risk.

At some point there will be a buying panic that will then be sold back off in a more orderly fashion.

(My guess only, of course)

[seemslikeadream]

24. 7,400 or lower

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[Blackhatjack]

25. I subscribe to this formula: Only when all the bad news is out will a floor be established...

There are still furious attempts taking place to keep the shell game going.... keeping the bad news hidden, and the refusal of banks to lend to one another is an acknowledgement that all the bad news is still not out.

I changed my mind in the last few days and now believe we will see significant lowering of the present levels before a bottom appears. I think the foreign markets will play a role in what happens here because so many US investors were in those foreign markets. Plus mutual funds have seen a huge outflow which must be reversed.

[Barack_America]

30. That sounds sensible. nt

[Virginia Dare]

52. Paulson was hinting yesterday that more banks will fall..

maybe that's what everybody is waiting for?

[Blackhatjack]

54. It is inaccurate to say banks won't lend because they don't know about other banks...

In many of these cases, the bank that won't lend DOES KNOW about the true condition of the bank seeking the loan --it is just that the truth is not public yet.

Plenty of financial institutions know a lot more than they are saying... and that is why they are refusing to lend.

[Virginia Dare]

57. That makes sense...

and until the "toxic" debt gets disappeared, everybody will sit tight.

[Virginia Dare]

58. dupe..

and until the "toxic" debt gets disappeared, everybody will sit tight.

[Two Americas]

72. exactly

This idea that somehow people are being irrational or emotional, and have lost confidence as though they just need a pep talk and all would be well again, is nonsense. Confidence is gone because trust is gone and trust is gone because people have been untrustworthy.

[fascisthunter]

27. Nadin? Have You Read anything from Ravi Batra?

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Yes, and he's been off by a couple decades

I remember that one...

[fascisthunter]

45. Really? Thom Hartmann Doesn't Seem to think so...

he has him on at least once a week.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. I read his book the coming depression of 1990... as I said he's been off

by a couple decades

As to Tom... these days I am glued to other things... will listen to the podcast later in the day I gues

[gopbuster]

28. End of the day will certainly tell some of the story.....

We know the buyers made a showing down there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. They tried

that's for sure

Perhaps now they will finally force the bank and trading holiday

Rumor has it that this is under consideration at the G-7... denied by the WH... which means they are considering it

[Barack_America]

29. Just dipped below 8,000.

So perhaps not.

Hovering right around 8,000 now.

[gopbuster]

32. It is normal to re-test the area of support...so expect it. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. I hate to think about my parents at this point

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Floor at 8000... talking head on the teevee

good lord...

And we are going to nationalize the banks....

Oh boo fucking boo... the bankers are worried of getting regulated...

ASSHOLES

[Barack_America]

37. But what is that floor based on?

Only the current information at hand, right?

It seems to be trying to rally right now, though. Over 8,100 now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. It is testing a bottom

Ah gone are the days of twenty up, twenty down...

[TornadoTN]

41. The bankers need to be the ones welcoming regulation if they were thinking logically

Unfortunately, they haven't realized that yet and are still grasping for the tiny myth of a hope that the glory days will be here again.

No more.

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. Not at least for a couple generations

but free marketeers are still screaming let them fail....

In that sense they are not unlike the let it burn crowd

[anigbrowl]

42. I'm pretty sure we break 8000

Maybe end at 7500 today. I thought this would take a month, but I was wrong. Oh well.

[TornadoTN]

36. The floor won't be found in just one day

Give it a week or two of sustained activity, and maybe we can determine the floor.

Today, I'll be surprised if we close north of the 7800 mark.

[gopbuster]

44. This is true...time to set a new trading range could take a while. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

46. It seems to be testing

lordly, withching hour half an hour for witching hour

[gopbuster]

47. I think we are just basically in limbo for now. nt

[girl gone mad]

38. VIX is at 74.

That's unprecedented.

[anigbrowl]

43. All bets are off then...we're into irrational territory now

The good news is that panic can only go on so long before rationality becomes profitable.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

50. I just read an article regarding the rising VIX

I'll share since you may also find it of interest.

The Soaring VIX

The market is experiencing an unprecedented level of fear, but that does not necessarily mean that this fear will subside quickly, as has happened in the past.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, or the VIX, was lately trading at 73.16, and hit a high of 74.46 during the day, the highest ever since the calculation of the VIX was changed in the early 1990s. Often, the expectation is that the VIX will soon fall, because once the market populace has taken out insurance against declines, people tend to start buying shares again. “Insurance changes behavior,” notes Howard Simons, analyst at Bianco Research LLC.

But don’t expect that to happen just yet. “So long as fear remains high which is now due to the contagion, then the VIX can stay high,” says Fred Ruffy, options strategist at Whatstrading.com. He notes that 20-day historical volatility is now over 60, which translates to an annualized move of more than 60% in the S&P 500. With historic volatility still very high, it ends to “put a floor under the VIX.”

Furthermore, the rapid decline of a number of components of the S&P towards $0 — which isn’t likely, but becomes a concern — causes more people to buy protection at a cost that’s near the actual amount of the put options’ strike price. In other words, a put option with a strike price of $10, would potentially cost $9.95. Because of the mechanics of options trading, normally the volatility is higher for out-of-the-money puts (say, a $10 put strike for a stock trading at $30).

More at link: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/10/the-soaring-vix/



Edited to fix HTML.

[girl gone mad]

53. thanks. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. We MIGHT be seeing a thaw in the credit markets... talking head on the TEeevee

HALLELUJAH... that is what we need to see

[BuyingThyme]

56. Yes, a floor is technically the point at which the market

holds for a half an hour.

[gopbuster]

60. She brought out some discussion nothing wrong with that. :) n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. Witching hour is here

so far holding

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. Hell of a recovery

down by fifty or so now

[Barack_America]

64. If it doesn't tank before the close, I'll be impressed.

It's tank sharply in the last few minutes of trading everyday this week. Maybe it has found a floor, hopefully a stable one if so.

[greguganus]

62. No, we're still in the basement. n/t

[Stinky The Clown]

63. The market's been totally squerrelly today - now UP to only 80 down

Have we found bottom?

Hey, why not ..... its only a FORTY PERCENT LOSS for the year.

[spinbaby]

65. I have hope we may finish in the black today

It would be a nice change.

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. We will

[nadinbrzezinski]

80. Somebody wants to serve that crow

those were wild last 15 minutes

[BrainStorm]

66. Plunge Protection Team

NT

[gopbuster]

68. I'm sure it was them who put the stop in this AM at least..my guess.

[gopbuster]

67. Its probably come up in anticipation of the G-7 miracle fix. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

70. The fix ain't what they expect

but we may also have found the floor

[gopbuster]

74. Historical close showing 8475 area right at the historical 200 monthly Moving average

Depression or Not The $850b question

The stock market speaks

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. I am betting on a deep recession

very deep... for most folks there will not be a difference, and it is rather technical

[gopbuster]

78. Unfortunately I think so too Nadin...severe slowdown and maybe I should

re-phrase that to "the $3t - $5 trillion question"

[nadinbrzezinski]

79. 12 T... it took a 1T to get out of the depression

and whether this is a deep recession or depression it will take money... adjusted for inflation that is 12 T

[gopbuster]

81. Yikes! n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

83. Go ahead, call me Mrs Sunshine

bad to know those little factoids at times

[darkism]

71. Obama announces small business plan and Dow is up to +90.

Coincidence? Hardly.

[Selatius]

75. Dow has finished the day -112.55. Floor may be near but not quite there yet.

I say wait and see.

Edited: Now down -128.00

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. Well will know tuesday if we are now at the floor

aka the trading range

[Unvanguard]

82. True, but it was much, much lower earlier. And the Nasdaq is slightly up.

I think this drop is over. Our economic troubles are not, however, so we may see more.

[Selatius]

84. I'm not gonna say we're out of the woods yet until full Quarter 3 results are known.

I believe Q3 results for the economy are going to be dismal, and that may cause another round of selling. When it gets priced in, then I'd be more confident in seeing a floor soon.