This is wild re: stock market

[gopbuster]

We are hovering right at the 200 Monthly Simple Moving Average 8475 a historical indicator which separates the stock market indications of severe recession or depression to the downside or a move up off of this area would show confidence. This is exactly the area, the place it should be according to history.

The great depression and 1974 we moved below this indicator. It can even act as a resistance barrier longer term if the economy gets too bad.

Buyers came out and bought the financials is what moved this today at the bottom. No telling where we are headed but interesting nevertheless.

Fair market value right here? The problem is we cracked it which doesn't bode well technically

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

Wild

[drm604]

1. I'm not very knowledgeable about this stuff,

but it does seem like Asia and Europe were acting like they had hit a bottom.

[gopbuster]

2. Here is a chart that shows the reliability of the 200 Month moving average

Here is a chart that shows the reliability of the 200 Month moving average


as a historical indicator: notice where we dipped below in the great depression and in 1974 I believe.


scroll down at this site. Also is a good article

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

It's a bottom but we still have some work to do and it may not hold much depends on the IMF and World Bank meeting this weekend I would think

[drm604]

3. I think it depends on whether or not credit can be unfrozen.

So far nothing seems to help with that.

[gopbuster]

12. Yep...but the point is we are sitting right at the historical hinge point whereas

the market is looking which way to go. Remember the IMF, Treasury, Fed Res, World Bank meet this weekend.

Sitting just under now which indicates we are favoring recession

[HCE SuiGeneris]

4. Do you have another link?

This is the result of the one posted: File Not Found
The requested URL /2008archives/moaug08.ht was not found on this server.

There was also some additional information available about the error:
access to /web05/contraryinvestor/html/2008archives/moaug08.ht failed for 69.137.189.54, reason: File does not exist

[gopbuster]

6. I pulled that off of one of my old posts...I wonder why..let me see what I can do

[drm604]

7. It's missing an "m" at the end.

Try this: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

[gopbuster]

10. Sorry...try this..

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

[gopbuster]

8. Sorry try this...

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

[drm604]

5. That link is broken. Add an "m" to the end of it. n/t

[gopbuster]

9. Sorry try this..

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2008archives/moaug08.htm

[drm604]

15. That works. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. It will sound bad to some, but hallellujah this may be surrender day

though funny stupid spoke it went down... the correlation is down right eerie... and Hooverian

[drm604]

13. What do you mean by "surrender day"? n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. The day when we find a floor

the traders basically give up... and essentially you have more sellers than makes sense.

The good news is that at that point you found the floor... and can start going up... even if very slowly.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

20. "Capitulation" is the phrase.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. You're right, capitulation

still hoping this is it

[drm604]

21. I've been thinking (at least hoping) the same thing.

If you look at Europe and Asia, and the current wild gyrations in the U.S. it does look like it may be at at least a temporary bottom.

And there is this: Credit markets show sign of easing as overnight rate tumbles

[gopbuster]

23. At the very least/most..lol.. we finally found out where there are some buyers...

And they bought the financials

Paulson and the Plunge Protection Team? Me thinks so

[drm604]

24. You think maybe Paulson is buying up financials already?

I guess they would do it quietly.

[gopbuster]

34. Well, somebody had to set the floor...ve has our vays! lol

[gopbuster]

14. The timing is unbelievable, It washed out to 90% fib and under the 200

recovered to where we are at the historical hinge point 200 SMMA and then he speaks.

Eerie indeed

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. I hate to say it, but hank paulson should stay away from any mike

for the rest of the day

[anarch]

16. he is like a super-Hoover

like, Hoover-squared or something.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. It's the technology... hoover's effect was reduced since we didn't

have the teevee back then...

[lumberjack_jeff]

25. I don't think we get it. The stock market is irrelevant.

It doesn't matter what the indicators are. International trade is seizing up. No one can get credit to accept shipments, or ship them inland.

Will it suck to be forced to eat Chinese melamine-laced Alpo? Sure. It'll suck worse if the grocery stores can't even get it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. True, markets are an after thought

[gopbuster]

30. Watch this thing close above 8475 in anticipation of the G-7......

OUR SAVIOR! sarcasm

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. I think we have reached capitulation

it is a little under where it should be... but we might found a floor

Looking at the chart..

That does not mean that G-7 will not pressure our boys to grow up and do what needs doing.. even if it is antitethical to American Capitalism

[gopbuster]

37. Is it soup yet? Maybe just a little? n/t

[gopbuster]

29. We get it n/t

[slipslidingaway]

27. Try the 300 month ema and sma on the SPX...

on long term charts, contained price during the 70's low, but 29-30 was a different story.

Current SPX numbers - ema is 854 and sma is 752


So far this morning bearish patterns are still breaking down, need to see a change in the pattern behaviors on the intraday charts...JMO.

[gopbuster]

28. Hey slip...question

Like I say it's been years since I've traded and had my charting service, I have just been using big charts or stockcharts free and using another individual source that has a single chart with daily update on what I need.

I haven't had any luck with either to pull up monthly MA's.

Maybe I wasn't pulling them up right or going to the right area within the websites.

I notice Bigcharts will let me do trendlines. The free has been limited on the upper indicators for me.

Any better ideas? I wish I had some money again...lol...this is tough..maybe my wife will loan me some lol

[slipslidingaway]

32. It's been years since I've had RT charts as well, this is the site

I've been using as of late and at least the SPX is real time, most of the time :)


http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp


Twenty days of intraday data, then daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts.

Many indicators are available and you can draw trendlines, no fibs :(


Note two boxes at the bottom left...

--click detach and it will open the chart in a new window for a larger chart

--a box with red lines, click on it to remove or add horizontal/vertical lines, you can check the prices for a certain day by holding the vertical line over a candle.

Double click and hold mouse down for a trendline or just click and drag your mouse to zoom in on an area or use the + / - boxes or the bar at bottom.

To delete trendlines use the drop down "tools" at the top where you will also find the indicators under "studies"

Have fun!

[gopbuster]

33. Thank you very much! Here is a link to some guys that have the fibs

posted and are updating daily. Also I have a couple of other TA's there who I rely on.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25035098

Scroll down to the chart it's updating itself daily so far

If not try pasting the image location into your browser

Thanks again

[slipslidingaway]

35. You're welcome and thanks for the link, here is something I used

years ago and you may want to see if it is still free or set up your own worksheet.

http://parttimetrader.com/fibcalc/index.htm

I miss having everything on one chart :(

[gopbuster]

36. Thanks! n/t

[gopbuster]

38. Dang....the trend line from the 1932 low up and across the 1982 low

is scary. If we were to retrace back to that it looks like by the time they intersect is in the 5000-6000 area a ways out. If we are, in fact going into a bear long term would be like water torture.

Saw the SPX is hammered below the 200 displaced MA pretty good.

[slipslidingaway]

39. Yes it was scary back in 2000 and 2001, but it has only 2 touches

on the trendline and there was a great rally from 2002-2003 to 2007.

After bearish formations breaking to the norm this morning, there was a small descending triangle on the intraday SPX charts this afternoon that broke up instead of down.

IMO best thing now would be some sideways movement next week...we'll see.


Unless the market totally collapses I think we'll see something like this for the next few years, we better sharpen our skills or be prepared for some large moves that result in little gain.



Here's the 1966-1982 trading range:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/19661982_tradin.html