Robert Schlesinger US News & World Report: This One's Over

[Hissyspit]

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/10/9/barack-obama-will-defeat-john-mccain--this-ones-over.html

Barack Obama Will Defeat John McCain—This One's Over

October 09, 2008 10:00 AM ET

The presidential election is still a few weeks away, but the presidential race is over.

Sure, there's still one more presidential debate; and a month is a proverbial lifetime in politics, but a sober look at both the current electoral landscape and political history tells us that—barring a reality-altering political deus ex machina—Barack Obama will be our 44th president.

Consider: The biggest political event last week was not the Palin-Biden sideshow but the McCain campaign's surrender in Michigan. Michigan's blue-collar voters were supposed to be cold to Obama, leaving the state vulnerable to John McCain. Not so.

Consider that the McCain campaign conceded last week that six states that voted for Bush in 2004—Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio—are tossups. Ohio, Missouri, and Florida last went Democratic in 1996 (no Republican presidential candidate has ever succeeded without the Buckeye State). But North Carolina hasn't gone Democratic since 1976, when neighboring governor Jimmy Carter won it, while Virginia and Indiana haven't supported a Democrat since 1964, when Barry Goldwater lost to Lyndon Johnson but inaugurated the conservative era. Let's repeat: It's October, and McCain is still struggling in North Carolina (where three polls released this week have the race at either a tie, a McCain lead, or an Obama lead), Virginia (three recent polls have Obama leading from 2 to 12 points), and Indiana (two polls released this month, one rating the race a tie, the other giving McCain a 5-point lead).

More broadly, the various electoral maps that take into account polls from the 50 states show Obama over, way over, or a hair's breadth away from the magical 270-electoral-vote figure.

Nationally, the picture is just as grim for McCain: Gallup's daily tracking poll pegged Obama's national lead at 11 points yesterday. Gallup's lead seems outsize, but Rasmussen has Obama at 6 points ahead nationwide. That's closer to Real Clear Politics's average of the major national polls, which sets Obama's lead at 5.1 percentage points.

But a month in politics is several lifetimes, and anything can yet happen, smart people argue. Don't be so sure—there are historical and logical reasons to doubt a McCain comeback.

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[BeFree]

1. Yep

In all my years I have never seen such a coming out of the woods of people wanting this guy to win.

People who never voted before are signing up. Folks who never campaigned before, are.

It is such a large movement that it can't even be safely stolen.

But congress could be stolen, and if it is then Obama would have his hands tied. Somehow, someway, we must keep them from stealing congress. Any ideas?

[jwirr]

2. What is left is to get out the vote.

[Hissyspit]

3. .