Balance of Power Scorecards: Dems Poised for Big Gains in House and Senate

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CQ Politics’ Balance of Power Scorecards: Dems Poised for Big Gains in House and Senate
By Bob Benenson, CQ Politics Editor


With exactly four weeks to go before Election Day, CQ Politics’ Balance of Power scorecards for the Senate and House of Representatives establish one certainty — that the Democrats will maintain control of both chambers when the 111th Congress is sworn in come January — and the very strong likelihood that the Democrats will expand the majorities they won by dominating the 2006 elections.

Our scorecards do an imperfect job of predicting how big the Democrats’ gains might be, for the simple reason that the totals take in only those seats that each party is currently favored to win — and exclude those that we rate as No Clear Favorite, or tossup. But the sizable number of races in that category, and the disadvantage facing Republicans in the number of seats they are defending, give strong indications of how big the Democrats’ gain may end up being.

Starting today, and continuing every week through Election Day, we’ll try to refine the Balance of Power scorecards to give a clearer indication of how big a swing these elections can be expected to produce.

As of today — with the usual caveat that major changes can still occur — it appears plausible that the Democrats will gain at least six seats in the Senate, and 15 seats or more in the House.
The Senate Scenario

Current (110th) Congress: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents

111th Congress Projections: 54 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 2 Independents, 2 seats are a toss up.

Democrats have the edge in races for five seats currently held by Republicans. They are strongly favored to win two seats left open by Republican incumbents: the Virginia seat held by five-term Sen. John W. Warner and the New Mexico seat of six-term GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici . They also are rated as leading in races for the Colorado seat of retiring two-term Republican Wayne Allard and the seats being defended by first-term New Hampshire Sen. John E. Sununu and six-term Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is on trial for failing to report substantial gifts from an Alaska corporation.

Should the Democrats maintain their edge in all those races, they would match their six-seat gain from 2006 just by splitting the two races for Republican seats currently rated No Clear Favorite: first-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole ’s increasingly troubled bid in North Carolina, and Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker ’s effort to win a special election for a seat to which he was appointed last December to fill a vacancy.

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