In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
... In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia's active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent ... So suppose .. black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia's registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain's advantage is a mere 1 point ... Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia's early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent ... Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate ...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.htmlHattip (for reference and title) to:
Chambliss on the endangered list
This analysis of the Chambliss-Martin Senate race is plausible to me. It consists of a series of “ifs” regarding voter turnout, which is always dangerous, but each “if” does seem reasonable. Bottom line: He thinks it’s become a toss-up race, a conclusion supported by three consecutive polls showing the race within the margin of error. It’s also consistent with Democratic surges in places such as North Carolina and Virginia ...
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/bookman/entries/2008/10/06/chambliss_on_the_endangered_li.html