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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:43 PM
Original message
The end of everything.
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 02:44 PM by Neshanic
Maybe living in another place other than Phoenix gives a person a different outlook on the economic collapse of the neverending expansion. Maybe the scale of the explosion of houses, cars, shopping centers, and everything that went with our drunken credit binge was more muted in other places and more in the background. I don't know.

But here in the center of Arizona,and our cousin in realty and uncontrolled growth sins Southern California, there was no reasonable way that we could of kept the bubble going. Not that anyone was not warned. To say back in 2005, and the end of 2004 that we were headed for a fall was greeted with mild amusement, and the realtor-ese of homes never losing value, and growth would continue forever. There were some here that discounted anyone that said in 2005 that the tulip/home bubble was going to burst.

Now we know. But then there are posters here in panic that a burger joint can't get credit, or Microsoft has credit issues. Like credit is a right. Like credit is a part of the Constitution.

There are only so many burger joints that can be built. There are only so many shopping centers, housing developments, power centers, electronic stores and home improvement stores that can be built. Do they all deserve credit? Are we as a society a worse place because there is a 10 mile distance beteween Home Depots instead of 5 miles?

You wanted a revolution. You wanted a change. Seems to me that you got what you wished for. Through economic crisis comes opportunity and change. You can't have it both ways, the Sonic getting built, and then complaining about the government being in bed with corporations.

This is not ALL a bad thing. There will be be job loss. There will be churn. But there will be change. There will be reform. Reform does not occur when people are comfortable.

It just came faster and an in a different form than what you thought.
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chill_wind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. Food for thought. K & R.
eom
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Once again, I need some money...
and since I am unlikely to have a job in a month or so, can you spare me about $100K to get through this crisis period that you seem to want?

Do you really think that the credit crisis has to do with building more Sonics?

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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. "Me Me Me"
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 02:53 PM by tama
What ever happened to "Do not ask what your country can do to you, as what you can do to your country"?
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Well, I expect there to be about 40 million "me"

and likely YOU too. But never mind that, the ends always justify the means. (or, in this case, just plain mean) :sarcasm:
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #7
23. Forget me
I'm so poor I can't even afford to be a person. :)

But then, I never understood the point of mass-individualism.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. What makes you think that I am not in the same situation as you?
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 02:53 PM by Neshanic
Other posts are here decrying that fact that Sonic has credit issues so they cannot expand.

Is that what this is about? Trying desperately to get back the days where there were no limits?

There are going to be limits now, if we like it or not.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Yes, creating a depression out of a recession is one way to get some limits.
It's also going to hurt a *lot* of people.

And in the end, do you really think you will get that utopia of change that you want?

What's more likely... socialist reform or fascist takeover?
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #8
24. The end of easy credit is unavoidable.
No one will be giving us more credit. We can't even afford to pay off the debt we owe right now.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
26. Forget likelihoods
"What's more likely... socialist reform or fascist takeover?"

What would you prefere? That others do while you just whine?
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #26
33. I prefer to not have to make the choice.
not because I don't want some social justice.

But because these things are never bloodless, there will be victims.

But I am writing to a lost cause with you. See you at the barricades. Or maybe you can write me in Costa Rica.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #33
45. Free will is a bitch
when it turns out to be obligation to choose.

When the violence and famine and other forms of suffering escalate, my choise is not to participate in producing the die-off on any side of the barricades, but to live as humbly I can the time I'm given, learning sustainability.

I don't think humility is a lost cause.
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chupacabranation Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #4
52. Yeah. And limits on lending for payroll.
One person can't recoup on their debts, and it gets transferred down the commercial chain...people can't make payments on contracts...etc. etc. Can't meet operating expenses, people get laid off, etc. etc.

It's NOT just about limiting credit lines, it's about the very viability of our business landscape. Time for someone to take "Business Instrumentals 101"....
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I only need about 10k...
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 02:54 PM by soulcore
And I welcome the coming collapse. A bloated, corrupt system can't stand on it's own forever, and there is a reason the stock market involves risk. It's just high class gambling.

This is a time for change, real change. We The People have let our voice be heard, and so far we are actually making a difference. The bill will pass eventually, as they always do, I just hope for some REAL oversight and some DIRECT help for the poor and middle class.

It won't be pretty, it won't be easy. But nothing worth doing ever is.

This too shall pass.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It will pass, and with Obama at the helm we have real opportunity
to make the changes we need, and be compassionate with the ones that need compassion, and put back in the box of regulation the ones that deserve it.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Then pass this "bailout" and when Obama is in office,
pass a different thing, something far better.

But pass this one now.
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. NOW! NOW! NOW!
Sounds suspiciously like the justification for Iraq.

Don't let them fear monger you.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. Sigh.
I was one of the few that never thought that anyone had justified the Iraq war.

Even when Colin Powell was making a presentation to the UN, I thought that it was an error what he was saying.

But I also understand a bit about how the economy works and the credit problems that the present crisis is creating. It's a crisis of trust.

THEY are not fear mongering ME... I'm trying to put the fear of breadlines and food riots into YOU! Because I believe that is where we could be headed. Certainly we are headed for a hard recession, possibly 8 to 9 percent unemployment. Even if they pass some bailout package, a recession is almost guaranteed. No bailout package... and it's likely to be longer and more severe. Depression? Could be.
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. I stopped letting fear rule me a long time ago.
Take your breadline nonsense somewhere else, the fast food chains near my apartment seem to be doing just fine today.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #31
35. Good lord...
do you really think that this happens overnight?

So the next day there aren't any breadlines so everything must be OK, right?

Unbelievable.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #35
73. You are fear mongering.
Regardless of the action we take here, America is facing real problems.

We will see a 10% drop in GDP. Our standard of living will decline. This doesn't represent the breakdown of society or a halting of production.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #73
75. Obviously, you have never lived through a period of 10 percent
GDP decline or 10 percent unemployment (that would be official 10 percent, unofficially we are probably already at 10 percent).

If you want to believe that I'm fear mongering, great.

I don't believe that I am. I don't know that a depression will arrive in 2 years time, however I know that the probability has increased. Also I know that the credit crisis will make things worse than without the credit crisis. And I think the bailout bill was the best we could have done soon enough to make a difference. Utopian solutions that have been bandied about for the last week here on DU have zero shot at implementation... and further more, most didn't even address the "crisis" but rather had other ideas for spending the money on other priorities.

At this point, I leave it all in the hands of our congress.

If you all want to agitate and write your congress person to speak out against the bailout (for whatever reason you may have), fine.

I hope they pass it the next time they get a chance.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #75
77. Yes, things will be harder.
There are absolutely no indications that food will be unavailable or the world will stop working.

I did live through the 80s bust in Texas.

People survive. We pull through. Life goes on.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #28
36. Fear is the mindkiller
Food riots are inevitable, ask yourself where and how you want to be when they start.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #36
39. Never said inevitable... but it's more likely now than
ever before in my lifetime.

Recession is here already. Deep recession seems certain. Out and out Depression is now like 50/50.
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #39
57. Like they won't pass a slightly different bill come Thursday anyway.
We the little people always get fucked, and it's usually through fear. This time it's the use of both fear and the threat of a depression.

I will prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. And live my life the best I can in the meantime.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #14
27. Once we give over the 700B..
we're not getting it back.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #27
38. You flunked history too

Find me some previous government bailouts where the taxpayers lost their money.

Start looking.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #38
42. Would this fit the bill? No pun intended.
The savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s (commonly referred to as the S&L crisis) was the failure of 747 savings and loan associations (S&Ls) in the United States. The ultimate cost of the crisis is estimated to have totaled around USD$160.1 billion, about $124.6 billion of which was directly paid for by the U.S. government—that is, the U.S. taxpayer, either directly or through charges on their savings and loan accounts<1>—which contributed to the large budget deficits of the early 1990s.

The concomitant slowdown in the finance industry and the real estate market may have been a contributing cause of the 1990–1991 economic recession. Between 1986 and 1991, the number of new homes constructed per year dropped from 1.8 million to 1 million, the lowest rate since World War II. <2>
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #42
44. Better check your facts there..
RTC got almost every penny back from the bailout. Took about 10 years and didn't make the news much.

Chrysler bailout MADE money for the taxpayer, as did the bailout of NYC.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #44
48. That is utterly false. The firesales of assets alone, we footed the bill for.
You are in need of fact checking.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #44
58. That's inaccurate.
And just like in that debacle, we're going to be stuck holding many completely worthless securities.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4129938
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:57 PM
Original message
These wouldn't be "securities"
but the mortgages represented by the securities. And to say that they are worthless is to say the value of the house and land it sits on is worthless.

They have gone down in value. Some of them by a lot. If own had to sell them right now, it would be very hard to get even $.50 on the dollar for a great number of them. But if one can wait 10 or 15 years, it is very likely that they will sell for near the face value, certainly more that we would have purchased them at (probably 30 percent off).

Not to mention that we could have worked deals with the homeowners to stay in their homes AND pay back the taxpayer every penny spent on purchasing the mortgage from the Wall Street banks (really, their investors), possibly at lower interest rates and for longer terms.

We would get our money back.

Immediate benefit to the rest of America would be to not have all the foreclosed homes sitting around vacant, thereby driving down property values for people who are not in default. That alone is probably worth $100 B or so in loses SHOULD the TARP have actually lost anything.

And then there was the equity stake in the banks that sold us their bad mortgage debt. Freed of that debt, they are likely to gain in stock value (they can start showing profits again). And we get to have some of that gain to offset our costs.

But no, this was a "bank heist" or a "giveaway". :sarcasm:

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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
63. SHHH don't tell anyone but that is what happened
with the great depression... in the end the guv'ment recouped the cost of the houses and then some

:-)

I know you know that, but history is not the murican people's strong suit

neither is macro economics
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. Hey, but I;m sure that bailout are just giveaways. or bank heists.

Sorry, just not in a fun mood today. Pardon the :sarcasm:

What astounds me is how the ultra right of the Repuke party voted this down... and so many otherwise sober leftists are cheering this action. Newt was against this bill and got it shot down. Obama was in favor of it.

And yet, there are so many here that all of a sudden think Obama is in league with the devil but the House Repukes (some of the worst of the worst) are now on "our" side.

I think Obama is one of the smartest people to ever run for President, do people really think that he is being hoodwinked or scared into handing over $700B with no chance of recovery? Or that he is in favor of this bailout but isn't convinced that there is a real crisis?

It's just been astounding.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #64
66. The extreme left and extreme right are holding hands under the table
At the core, they are libertarians

And at that poorly informed libertarians
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #66
80. Those kind of attacks are unproductive.
Most opposition to a bad bill is grounded in economic reality, not crazed ideology.
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #64
72. I agree about Obama being one of the smartest people to ever run for President, but that doesn't
mean he isn't ESPECIALLY beholden right now to the Democratic leadership who have proven time and time again that they are owned by the BIG MONEY, BIG OIL, BIG MILITARY corporatists who jerk Pelosi's strings and watch her do the dance of the month. Obama cannot afford to buck the party leadership right now. They have struck a course and he has endorsed it. If he changed direction now or decided that we weren't in EMERGENCY MODE he would look weak and unleaderlike--a la McLame.

Hoodwinked? No. Coerced by circumstances and the mindless knee-jerk response of the corporatist Dem leadership? Absolutely.

Remember FISA, lapfog_1? It's called go along to get along when you're up to your ears in alligators a month before the election and the incumbent pulls another of his scintillating National Crisis scams.

Every time I hear Obama say Congress has to act NOW I want to scream.

By the way, in your other post about holding the foreclosed homes for 10 or 15 years when their value will rebound, were you serious? Have you ever seen what happens to an unlived-in, unmaintained home that is neglected for even three or four years? It ain't pretty and it is EXPENSIVE to remedy.

What is astounding is that the "experts" our leaders are consulting with to reach this agreement on a rescue (or whatever you want to call it) are the same "experts" who got us into this quicksand in the first place. Paulson, Bernanke, Cox. Bush cronies all.

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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. Nobody said they would be un-lived in.
Since I'm single, I rent. I would love to rent a foreclosed house for some nominal fee (so much for the giveaway, they are getting some money back!) and I do the home repair / improvements.

Maybe even a RTO situation would work out.

Of course, first I have to keep my job.

Without credit liquidity, it's going to be dicey.

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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:54 PM
Original message
Dupe post
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 04:55 PM by Neshanic
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #74
76. And how exactly would that work? Kinda like this?
BofA has shitload of foreclosed houses.

BofA does not mark to market on the homes.

BofA unloads homes paper, oh to the government.

Government becomes landlord of quite a few homes. Is there an agency established to control the flow of people who want to rent instead of own the homes? If they want to buy the homes, why did BofA sell the paper to us anyway? Oh...the house was not marked to market BEFORE it was sold to us.

Never mind that detail, there are bigger fish to fry.

So you want to rent a "TARP" home. Oh there will have to be an agency for THAT. No? Oh, the market solution. HIRE a company and pay fees so THEY make money off of being the rental agents for all those homes. Someone has to be there in case the hot water or air fails, and then THEY can hire THEIR guys to do repars and bill the government. You will not be required to do fixin'. There is money to be made.

BofA has a ton of homes? Mark to market and they can dump them and sell and rent them themselves.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #76
79. You presume that the current "mark to market" price is all they
will ever be worth.

And that is a faulty assumption.

And I'm sure you know what happens if BofA dumps the mortgages they have for what people would pay now... just like the rest of the Wall Street firms, they go bankrupt. The investors with cash, mostly overseas folks, get ruined. And even IF they have more money someplace else, like in their home banks, they won't be investing it here anytime soon. Without their money (a few Trillion at least) all of our banks fail. They are already not lending to each other.

Without that hard currency flowing around our banking system, short term paper becomes near impossible to get, certainly not at rates close to short term T-bills. Lending stops. Every company in the world (ok, haven't check EVERY one, but the vast majority) have lines of credit they use for inventory and payroll, etc. If they have to keep reserves of cash on hand to meet these short term obligations... they will have to contract, possibly as much as 20 to 25 percent. Many will simply go out of business.

Layoffs and so forth beget more layoffs. Recession, probably severe. Potential depression.

That's what happens if they simply unload the debt.

And if the government steps in and buys the assets only to rent them out (or, as you suggest, let someone property manage for them)... do you think that the rent won't cover the costs? And if it does cover the costs... then the taxpayer is starting to get some money back, no?
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #63
70. You should get out more and visit other housing web sites and try that line.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #70
71. What that muricans don't know history? Proven fact
the murican people don't remember last week, let alone over eighty years ago

Sorry...

As to macro economics, ditto

After all we have seen the lack of knowledge on even basic things like commercial, short term, paper
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
65. No, the government wants to buy credit default swaps.
If it were just about mortgages, we would be able to fix the crisis by forcing banks to re-write the terms.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
69. Not even Case Shiller would agree with your bizzarre timeline.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #38
46. Japan
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 03:30 PM by girl gone mad
20 years of deflation, and that was in a country full of savers.

ETA: the zombie banks that they propped up still haunt them to some degree.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. I hope the food riots start on your block first.
My conservative relatives are out buying ammunition right now. And rejoicing just as much as you seem to be.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. I am not rejoicing. It is what it is.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. These are not laws of nature...
it's not a black hole created by the LHC swallowing us up.

It's simply some money, numbers in computers really. It doesn't HAVE TO BE WHAT IT IS.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. So your take would be what? Dole out credit? No matter what?
To have things built that no one occupies or shops in?
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #17
32. These are laws of nature
Second law of thermodynamics, to be exact.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #32
41. Clearly you are neither an economist or a physicist. - n/t
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #41
51. Quote from Jack Sarfatti:
"The second law of thermodynamics states that in closed environments confusion increases. You are showing a closed mind."
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #51
56. Chaos not confusion.
Chaos is a state of nature, confusion is what is in your mind.


Here is the actual definition for those who are confused.

The second law of thermodynamics is an expression of the universal law of increasing entropy, stating that the entropy of an isolated system which is not in equilibrium will tend to increase over time, approaching a maximum value at equilibrium.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #56
60. As if
mind was not a state of nature.

Sarfatti is BTW a prominent physicist supporting the quantum-mind hypothesis.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #60
62. Sorry, not up on all the new-age stuff, I'll take your word for it. - n/t
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #17
37. Why is it 700 billion is needed to unlock credit markets, exactly?
& why is it it has to come from ordinary taxpayers?

The problem isn't lack of money. There's plenty of money, so taking from those who have less to give to those who have more will make things worse, not better.

The problem is something else.
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Very progressive and empathetic of you.
No need to stock up on ammo when you an make your own. ;)

Nothing wrong with being prepared.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
43. You people are the ones that want the whole thing to burn down, not me.
I'd rather take a chance and solve the financial crisis and keep people employed and stuff, get Obama and a solid majority of democrats elected to the congress and work on reforms then. Without all of the potential riots and shit. But that's just me.

Apparently you have no faith in the Democratic party or our system of government.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #43
49. Want?
Certainly not. Wanting something and accepting something as inevitable are very different things.

And of course I don't have faith in the Democratic party and our system of governement. IIRC it was Kierkegaard that said that faith means letting go.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. Accepting the inevitable... wow.
Ok. whatever.

The bailout is a mistake!! Yeah. You guys "win".
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #43
67. So, fill us in on your take of the situation then. Are you the...
bailout by all means theory? Or are you the prop up the dead corpse of credit and "consume" our way out of this?

Either way there is an economic shift coming and there is nothing anyone can do about it, except make money more available to the entities that don't need it and are used to getting it.

So enlighten us on your scenario of the one quarter recession, or would that be half a year?
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #67
78. Ok.
Yeah, I think the bailout will accomplish what it sets out to accomplish.

That would be a restoration of investor trust in the firms that are dumping their bad assets.
Will it fully restore the trust of 100s of thousands of investors from around the world? I honestly don't know. The longer this goes on, the less likely that is.

Will the taxpayer be hurt by the bailout? Well, unlike the war in Iraq, probably not. My guess is that the TARP sells the assets for near what WE paid for them, and has other revenue enhancing means to make up the difference. It will take some time. More time than investors would give those Wall Street "banks".

Consume our way out? Of the credit crisis? No. Our consumerist ways are a different problem.
However, I don't think that the root of the problem is private American debt load. The root of the problem is our government debt load, driven into the ground by 8 years of Bush and his insane war and taxation policies.

And, much like Vietnam, we will be paying for Iraq for at least a decade more.

I'm hoping that Mr. Obama is elected and ends that expensive and idiotic war. I am also hoping that he scales down some Pentagon spending, that he increases taxes on those who can afford it, and that we see a decline in deficits... though at this point, we may have to tighten the belt so much that we run surpluses for a decade before we fully restore confidence in the dollar and America again.

This will greatly hamper President Obama's social programs, programs that we very desperately need. At this point, all I'm hoping for is some sort of universal health care and a new energy policy. One that invests in renewable energy produced here in the US. If we can kick the fossil fuel habit and create American jobs in renewables... that does a number of very good things to our economy. But yeah, those may be out of the question now. I hope not. As for the rest, education, environment, etc, etc. I don't know, but I've already discounted them for my lifetime.

We must end deficit spending.

We must re-regulate the banking industry.


I reject the notion that our best days are behind us and that all we have to look forward to is decline. I believe that with fiscal discipline and technological innovation, we can get back to being an economic "power" (we don't need to be an empire, I would be happy with economic parity with the rest of the world).

But the first step is to avoid a deep recession. So yeah, I hope the bailout works and is passed soon.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #43
68. Dupe post
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 04:31 PM by Neshanic
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #10
30. And I hope
you get your garden going and have lots of friends before the food riots start.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #30
47. I saw the potential for this almost 2 years ago.
and, yeah, I got a big garden in this year, planning an even bigger one for next.

Wish I had the money to buy some big ass greenhouses. Built my own "shade house" this year (otherwise the critters would have eaten everything... as it is they got quite a bit).

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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #47
54. I'm so happy for you!
"All gardeners of the world, unite!" :)
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #54
59. Yes, that's nice, how happy I am

but if it's all the same to you, I'd rather keep my job and shop in the supermarket.

Something about the choice of products that I can't easily grow. Not to mention the convenience of buying whatever I want when I want it. I don't think I'll be growing bananas or grapes or many many other things here anytime soon. Our squash and peppers were tasty... tomatoes didn't do so well, onions did OK, as did the beans. But the store has a lot more variety and it's not nearly as much work.

I have to work about 6 hours to take home $150 in groceries. In the garden, I'd have to work probably 20 hours and for less quantity. Not to mention those other products that I can buy at the store.

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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. No problemo
just reminding that not all hopes and wishes can be realized, at least infinitely.
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tavalon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-01-08 03:20 AM
Response to Reply #5
82. Would that be 10K at the dollar's current value or at the value it will be at
during the massive inflation that is coming or will it be at the value it will be at when the worst of the depression is here? I just want to be clear on that.

Economics are incredibly boring but please try to get a basic understanding before making such a statement.

Do you have a skill you can barter? Do you know how to grow food and find adequate shelter when yours goes away? I think you might want to concentrate on those and many other basic skills since you are welcoming this difficult and yet, worthy time!
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trthnd4jstc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. We have ended the Age of Easy Credit, and entered the Age of Greater Difficulty. n/t
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johnlal Donating Member (974 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
40. Did I miss the age of easy credit?
Because as I remember, if a regular guy wanted to borrow money, he would get a high interest rate and shitty terms. And the shitty loans made to the little guys funded the sweet deals made to the big guys.
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trthnd4jstc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #40
53. Us regular guys would be offered credit at ridiculously high rates, and terrible terms, now we...
cannot receive that as easily. I agree with what you say about our shitty loans funding the sweetdeals made to the rich guys.

I believe that credit will not be as easily had as it had been. That is the point of my statement.

Later.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
11. Like I wrote in another post: somewhere along the way consumerism got confused with Patriotism.
If one would just see back and take a good hard look at the big picture, what they would see is a nation no longer run by the people but a nation that has become completely interdependent on the corporation.

and here we are...
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #11
34. Remember when Reaganites..
screamed about the "dependency class" and large numbers of people being too dependent on the government for their survival?

It looks like the solution they implemented was to replace government with large corporations.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
13. ..
Edited on Tue Sep-30-08 03:00 PM by loindelrio
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. That guy got it before anyone had a clue. He's great.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
15. Interesting post with some bedrock truths
from someone who clearly has a bird's eye view. I agree that the type of growth much of the country has seen over the past couple of decades is neither sustainable or desirable.

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napoleon_in_rags Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
19. Well said! "2012 is now."
That's what the graffiti says at my local co-op. There was this sense that change was coming in a few years, but here it is, today. Its ugly, but its opportunity as well. The way of life we have been living is wasteful and silly. I was just writing my dad about energy, the fact that a man produces 200 watts and a car 20,000, so the work of a car is literally scientifically equivalent to 100 men. 100 men paid $1.25 an hour (gallon) previously, but not 100 men cost $4.00 an hour. (gallon) In an industrial society where literally everything runs on energy, that means about 1/3 the work is getting done for the same cost. It means there will be less if we don't change

But there is a lot of hope, because we CAN change. The reason human laborers are still valuable over engines is not because the amount of watts they output, but the intelligent ways they use the watts they have to do work that's why to this day robots haven't replaced human laborers in many many tasks. Humans have value because they work smarter than machines, not harder.

And that's the challenge of our time, to figure out how to live smarter, not to try to find energy to continue to live stupidly. We have all the tools to do this in IT, its just a matter of a leader standing up and inspiring us to actually do it. Our quality of life can be great, our economy can be reborn, but its not going to happen until we rise to this challenge. And in a lot of ways, that's exciting.
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. That's the spirit! It will be exciting. New ways, and new things.
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soulcore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. Exactly, the world is what you make it.
We are beholden to fake numbers in computers, the corporatocracy has it's boot on our face.

And this is our chance to shatter that failed system, and build something new and glorious in it's place.

It is what we make it. And we can make it a disaster, or we can make it an opportunity.
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Kazak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
20. More, more, more, bigger, bigger, bigger, consume, consume, consume!!!
This has been our mantra for as long as I've lived, and I've always had a sense that it would come back to haunt us all, just didn't know when until now...
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Irish Girl Donating Member (265 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
55. Cleanse out the filth
I think we need to go into a cleansing cycle for our nation to survive. Everything happens for a reason.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
81. Climate change would be something that could actually cause the end of
our species and millions of others, at the very least. Since "growth" is contributing to climate change, perhaps we're buying ourselves a little time.If developing clean, renewable energy (NOT ethanol or "clean coal") becomes our new National Apollo project through Obama, then we may get both our economy AND the planet back on track.
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