Live chat with Nate Silver (538/Poblano)

[mod mom]

FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Silver
Start Time: Sept. 30, 01:00

Nate Silver, founder of the political-forecasting blog FiveThirtyEight.com and managing partner of Baseball Prospectus, joins The Washington Times for a live chat on Tuesday, Sept. 30, at 1 p.m. Mr. Silver is best known for inventing PECOTA, which forecasts the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players. You must be registered with www.WashingtonTimes.com to ask questions. To register, click the gray word "REGISTER" on the top right-hand corner of this page, then follow the instructions. Once you're registered, come back to this chat page and then click the orange "Ask a Question" link.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/media/chats/

[mod mom]

1. On the Bradley Effect:

Did your analysis of the primaries show any sign of the Bradley effect? If not , what difference is there between the 1982 California election and this one? by NY, NY

Answer: In the primaries, Obama either slightly OVERperformed his polls, or performed about even with them, depending on what metric you look at. There were some regional differences, and differences in the way that undecideds tended to break in different states, but it's not clear that they were related to the Bradley Effect or something else. There is also some evidence if a REVERSE Bradley Effect in which some black voters said they were undecided when they really weren't. The basic difference between 1982 and 2008 is that 1982 was a quarter-century ago. Race relations are different now, the issues facing the country are much different ... how much have you heard this year about crime and welfare? by Nate_Silver