The forecast
Wind shear has dropped to about 15 knots, and this allowed Kyle to organize sufficiently to get a name today. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 10-20 knots for the next two days, which should allow Kyle to intensify to at least a 65 mph tropical storm. Kyle is currently over waters of about 28°C. Waters will stay this warm Friday, then cool to 26°C on Saturday. After Kyle crosses north of 40° latitude (east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts), the waters cool dramatically to 15°C (59°F) and shear is expected to increase. This should weaken Kyle by about 10-15 mph before landfall on Sunday afternoon. I'm expecting Kyle to be a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall Sunday afternoon in Nova Scotia. According to the forecast wind radius from NHC, tropical storm force winds of 39 mph and higher will miss Massachusetts, but may affect eastern Maine. Tropical storm force winds are also expected to miss Bermuda. (Use the wundermap with "wind radius" turned on to see the expected radius of tropical storm force winds).
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