A question about polls

[drmeow]

My understanding is that election polls are of "likely voters" of which having voted in a previous election is a criteria. Wouldn't that mean that all the newly registered Dems don't qualify as likely voters and are not included in the recent polls?

[the_realist]

1. Exactly...

.... this is why I truly believe the polling is off and we're ahead in the key states (or enough to get us to 270 electoral votes). Also, cell phone numbers aren't called, so there's another deficiency with these polls. So old school...

[Tansy_Gold]

2. CELL PHONES ARE CALLED

Pollsters use different demographics in their samplings. Yes, they frequently use "likely" voters, which are usually (but not always) those respondents who identify themselves as having voted in the previous election(s). But the demographic is not constant. They can and sometimes do use "registered" votes.

I know -- make that KNEW -- next to nothing about polling so I found someone who did and I asked them. I then posted the information on one or maybe two or maybe even three of the bazillions of threads here about polling.

Why don't you try educating yourselves before you go.....


Oh never mind.


Sheesh.



Tansy Gold

[Captain Hilts]

3. No, sometimes they ask: How likely are you to vote this Novemeber...

Would you say you are VERY likely to vote, just somewhat likely to vote, somewhat UNlikely to vote, or VERY UNlikely to vote?

They use the capitals on 'UN'. Some pollsters might split the language and do half with 'likely' first and the other half with UNlikely first.

I worked for 8 years in polling.

[curious one]

4. They are not polling registered voters on purpose. The true answer is not to their likening.