Jeff Masters and Ike- A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas

[malaise]

There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1076&tstamp=200809

[DUgosh]

1. I was a kid living in Victoria on Mimosa St

During Carla. Ours was a little clapboard house on piers, we went to stay with a neighbor who had a brick house. The brick house did not fare so well, we were lucky to survive. Upon returning home our little clapboard house surprised us only loosing it's screen door. To this day almost 50 years later I can still remember the groaning sound Carla made and the terror when the roof was ripped of that brick house. I have lived through Carla, two hits of a small tornados on the same night in 2000 that took the roof of former home in Hondo, then five months later lost the same roof and all the windows to big hail. I truly hate storms.

[texpatriot2004]

2. What year did Carla hit? It was in the 70's, right? nt

[Beausoleil]

3. According to OP

1961

Fortunately, Carla didn't make it to San Angelo, where I was at the time.

[DemoTex]

4. Carla "made" Dan Rather.

He was a young, network-affiliate talking head at the time.

[Beausoleil]

6. Now that you mention it

I have seen some of that footage.

Then 11-22-63 happened and Dan was a national figure after that.

[texpatriot2004]

5. That's right. I remember my mother telling me about Carla. I think

she was a young person in Corpus Christi or Refugio at the time Carla hit.