Ike already has an eyewall

[Strelnikov_]

Look out Houston.

Hurricane Ike has taken advantage of the warm Gulf of Mexico waters it is over, and has already built an eyewall. At 7:02 m EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found a complete eyewall, which can also be seen on infrared satellite loops and Key West radar. The infrared satellite imagery also shows a rapid cooling of the cloud tops in Ike's eyewall and some of the spiral bands, indicating that the thunderstorms are penetrating higher into the atmosphere--a sign of strengthening. The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the pressure has begun to fall, but Ike's winds remain at minimal hurricane force, 75 mph. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.

[Barack_America]

1. That storm has a knack for rapid intensification.

Very impressive.

Not going to be a nice weekend for TX, I'm afraid.

[malaise]

5. The keys are feeling 60mph winds

Dr Steve Lyons on Weather Channel just said this is a Katrina heading for Texas. IT could be Cat 3 or 4.

Get ready for the worse - this is a massive wicked hurricane with unbelievable rain.

[hatrack]

2. The good news, of course, that it's veering to the west rather than hitting LA again

But that's one big storm. I haven't seen anything that size since Floyd back in . . . 1999, I think it was.

[Barack_America]

3. Word is that it's actually tracking more and more north.

But it won't hit NOLA.

[malaise]

6. Not according to Steve Lyons

He's coming up at 10.50 on Weather Channel.

[Barack_America]

9. Steve Lyons vs. Jeff Masters.

May the best meteorologist win. ;)

[lastliberalintexas]

11. And the computer models

They already have it shifted more to the north/east, since earlier today they were showing landfall in Brownsville/N Mexico.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad


It's still too early to really tell anything, but the local weather guys are afraid the high pressure may break down faster than expected. That could mean a more direct hit from Matagorda/Galveston to Houston to Beaumont/Port Arthur.

[malaise]

13. I've been busy most to today so I haven't been watching the

models. All I recommend is that everyone start paying attention to this monster.

[lastliberalintexas]

16. We have, unfortunately

I fear that our local emergency people pulled the trigger too early with Gustav, and now people aren't as likely to evacuate for Ike. Some people also can't afford to do it again, just a week later. I just hope they stay safe and get away somehow, from whereever it hits. :(

[malaise]

18. I think you're right

Where are you in Texas?

[lastliberalintexas]

21. In Beaumont

Refineries, Cancer Alley and hurricanes. Great slogan for the tourism board, doncha think? :)

[malaise]

23. Damn after Rita you can't be too calm

until the path is certain.

Not a great slogan :D

[malaise]

12. LOL

I respect both. Lots of rain still falling in Cuba and Haiti.
Lyons says somewhere between Houston and Corpus Christie. Let me email my niece and tell her to head for her brother.

[lastliberalintexas]

14. I hope you don't get hit again, malaise

Hopefully Josephine and Lowell (?) just fade away. :)

[malaise]

17. We're expecting rain but there are no hurricanes in sight right now

Compared with Haiti and Cuba, we've been very lucky. Gustav went through us as a Tropical Storm at 60mph. I saw waves on Cuba's East coast five storeys high. That was unbelievable. We've had comprehensive coverage of both Cuba and Haiti. Friday is the 20th anniversary of Gilbert and we don't need another one like that again.
Weather Channel just said Ike is 500 miles wide - Katrina was 400. WTF!!!!

[Strelnikov_]

7. "Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1076&tstamp=200809

Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Connor, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore, since the high angular momentum of the swirling storm surge waters did not have time to decrease much. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Connor and Freeport (Figure 4). Actually, looking at these storm surge values, I wouldn't be surprised if the 1942 storm was stronger both at landfall and before landfall than the official HURDAT database advertises. This storm came before the era of satellites and Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

[lastliberalintexas]

4. The scary thing is that it's on Rita's track

I don't want it to hit anywhere, but I hope it stays away from SE Texas. I'm not ready to evacuate again. And what would the irony be, with Central to Eastern LA getting hit close to the Katrina anniversary and SE Texas getting hit close to Rita's. Funny.


No offense to Corpus, but it looks like it's your turn. You're definitely due, after skirting close calls the last several years. Stay safe.

[Strelnikov_]

15. Forecast track for Rita at about the same stage

And ended up landing at Port Arthur.

The cone is there for a reason.

[lastliberalintexas]

19. Yeah, the local news reminded people of that

I think they are justifiably worried that people won't or even can't evacuate again just a week after Gustav (that evac order was issued too quickly), so they are maybe hyping it a little to keep people's attention. They are reminding people that Rita was also forecast to his Corpus, then Galveston, then actually hit us. And it moved north because a high pressure system deteriorated faster than expected. :shrug:


I'm going to just ignore the models, because Corpus is due. I don't wish it on them, but I can't believe that they haven't had a direct hit in the last several active years, but I can't think of one?

[malaise]

20. And this one is moving slower

9mph

[Fuzz]

8. I heard a report that the water temp was 89 degrees

so that should feed it quite a bit.

[Strelnikov_]

10. Yep. It's feeding time.

[Strelnikov_]

22. May want to start thinking about topping off the tanks

Models show 'massive devastation' in Houston

Dodson's firm modeled more than 100 storms of varying power, speed and landfall. It concluded that a large Category 4 or Category 5 -- a storm only moderately larger than the four that struck Florida last summer -- would cause as much as $40 billion to $50 billion in damage. That's 10 times the cost of Tropical Storm Allison and approximately the city of Houston's entire budget for the next 15 years.

And this wasn't an academic exercise. Of the 17 Category 4 and Category 5 storms that have struck the United States since 1900, three, all Category 4 storms, have hit the Greater Houston area -- unnamed storms in 1900 and 1915 and Carla in 1961.

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/3046592.html

http://www.khou.com/weather/stormsurgemap.htm



12.1% of US refining capacity adjacent to coastal waterways in greater Houston


BP Texas City 437 kbbl/dy
Marathon Texas City 72 kbbl/dy
Valero Texas City 210 kbbl/dy

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ExxonMobil Baytown 557 kbbl/dy

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Shell Deer Park 334 kbbl/dy

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Crown Central Pasadena 100 kbbl/dy

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Lyondell Houston 270 kbbl/dy

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Valero Houston 83 kbbl/dy

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