NV-02, NV-03: Paint That Mother Blue

[ccharles000]

First, some numbers to chew on from 2006:

Jill Derby (D): 104,593
Dean Heller (R): 117,168

Tessa Hafen (D): 98,261
Jon Porter (R): 102,232
Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let's compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let's tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada's congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here's what we get:


District Nov. 2006 Aug. 2008 Change
NV-01 40,671 65,679 25,008
NV-02 47,718 29,405 18,313
NV-03 2,882 25,445 22,563
Total 4,165 61,719 65,884

Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley's 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter's feet in the 2nd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.

It's also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP's voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she's going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she'll need to close the gap.

Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.


http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=2393A444AB905F939E3FD15C92BCCDFD?diaryId=2963

[KharmaTrain]

1. Completely Below The Corporate Media Radar

The 50-state strategy in action...a great byproduct of the long primary season. The bobbleheads are obsessed with beauty pagent numbers...national polls that have no bearing on how the real game is playing out on the state and local level. Democrats have registered a lot of first-time voters this year and Dr. Dean, Chris Van Hollen and Chuckie Schummer are setting the stage for a lot of surprises on election day...and here's a great example...and it will have an effect on the Presidential. There'll be coat-tails up and down as strong local races will help the national race and visa versa. The GOOP is tapped out, both financially and with poor candidates and many are now being left on their own as all money and "resources" are going to Gramps and Grandma.

I think Nevada will be a pleasant surprise on Election day...there are a lot of new Democrats in Clark County as well as a scandal-plagued Governor.

[ccharles000]

2. I agree