Gustav on the Brink of Explosive Development

[Purveyor]

Over the past 48 hours Tropical Storm Gustav proved it was a survivor, as it withstood difficult journeys over Haiti and Jamaica. Now it may turn into a monster. It has emerged intact over the very warm, open waters of the northwest Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center cautions in its latest update:

...STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.

Gustav's intensification may be briefly interrupted if it passes over western Cuba. However, it is likely to still be a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) in the Gulf of Mexico. It's landfall intensity forecast is more difficult, as some models suggest its forward progress will slow as it approaches land. SeaBlogger aptly explains:

General rule for Gustav in the Gulf: the quicker it moves, the more severe it will be at landfall. If it slows, shear will weaken it more, and dry air will entrain off the land. Watch the speed and course: slowing and wavering will be good signs. But if it settles on a straight path after Cuba and moves steadily, someone will get pretty hard hit at the end of it.

Where will Gustav hit? Track guidance has been pretty consistent in bringing it ashore between northeast Texas and Alabama. The majority of computer models predict a landfall in Louisiana, west of New Orleans.

The worst case scenario for New Orleans would be for the storm to make landfall just slightly to its west or a nudge east of the middle of the National Hurricane Center's current forecast (shown above to the right) . Such a track would inflict Gustav's strongest winds and maximum storm surge on the city. Katrina actually tracked just east of the city and would have impacted the city even more severely had it come inland just slightly west of where it did. The odds of the worst case scenario materializing are low, but with the consistency of the track forecasts for this storm in the last two days, the possibility needs to be taken seriously by planning and political officials.

MORE...

WASHINGTON POST: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/08/gustav_on_the_brink_of_explosi.html?hpid=news-col-blogs

[Frustratedlady]

1. Problem is, we still have the same political officials and they are on vacation.

It will be interesting to see if they spring into action or go party!

[Stellabella]

3. Yep. And not only that, the rebuilding has been pitiful.

Thanks, of course, to the Liar-in-Chief and his incompetent cronies.

[Shoelace]

2. and TS Hanna might be a bigger monster than Gustav

I just saw a 10 day track for Hanna which puts her right into the Gulf as a huge hurricane. She takes pretty much the same track as Katrina did 3 years ago today. I think it's time for people to permanently evacuate the Gulf coast.
Rats, I can't find the link to that track now, if I do, I'll post it later.

[dkofos]

4. I better get to Canada fast!!!

[DCKit]

5. If you don't fight them here, they'll just follow you to Canada. n/t