ALERT: NEW ORLEANS AND NORTH GULF REGION (1700 EDT)

[Aviation Pro]

The 1700 EDT (2100Z) forecast and analysis for TS Gustav is now available at National Hurricane Center's web site.

Gustav has finally cleared Hispaniola/Haiti and is moving slowly along the forecast track. With one exception, all the guidance tracks are aligned and the outlier has been dismissed by the analysts. The 5-day forecast still shows Gustav taking the Katrina track with a landfall between Gulfport and New Orleans. Projecting this forecast, this would put NOLA in quadrant 2 of the storm, which although not as intense as quadrant 1 would still cause considerable damage. Furthermore, the track puts Gustav directly over a loop current (an eddy of extremely warm water) which also mirrors Katrina.

For more information on Gulf temperatures, go to the National Buoy Data Center web site.

Here is the current 5-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/203214W_sm.gif

[Aviation Pro]

1. Kick for widest dissemination.....

.....

[kansasblue]

2. CBS News said all five major tracking systems are pointing to the same area....

It's unusual that they all generally agree...... it's New Orleans.

[Aviation Pro]

3. The new modeling software is exceptional....

...I saw it in 2005 at the Key West WFO and it accurately predicted Ophelia making her loop-de-loop seven days out.

[DixieBlue]

6. How horrifying.

I have no other words.

[shireen]

4. a sick sinking feeling.

i'm in Baltimore, and even from that distance, Katrina was a very traumatic event for me. I can't imagine how folks in the path of Gustav are handling it.

[Aviation Pro]

5. Next update will be 2300 EDT.....

...0300Z.