Russians Set A Trap & Prodded By CHENEY & NeoCons-Georgia Walked Right Into It

[kpete]

Georgia in the middle
The Russians set a trap, and prodded by the neo-cons, Saakashvili walked right in

MISHA GLENNY

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

August 14, 2008 at 7:28 AM EDT

Clearly, Russia has been goading the Georgian government for several years into making the big mistake. The parastates of Abkhazia and, above all, South Ossetia, have been under the control of a toxic coalition of criminals and both former and serving Russian security service officers. Russian soldiers have been acting as their protectors under the guise of a peacekeeping mission, preventing Georgia's attempts to seek a negotiated reintegration of the two areas. The Georgian crisis has clearly benefited the standing of hard-liners in Moscow still aggrieved at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's decision to have the moderate, business-friendly Dimitry Medvedev succeed him in the Kremlin.

But under the influence of an energetic neo-con lobby in Washington and with considerable support from Israeli weapons manufacturers and military trainers, Mr. Saakashvili and the hawks around him came to believe the farcical proposition that Georgia's armed forces could take on the military might of their northern neighbour in a conventional fight and win.

So the Russians set a trap, and prodded by U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney's people, Georgia walked right into it.

The consequences of this egregious error begin in Georgia itself. Not only is it now defenceless, it can kiss goodbye to any restoration of sovereignty over both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Even though French President Nicolas Sarkozy received tentative agreement from both Moscow and Tbilisi for the establishment of international talks to settle the status of the two areas, they are unlikely to rejoin Georgia any time soon. The loss of Abkhazia, with its considerable economic potential, is a huge blow. The European Union and the United States will argue there is no parallel to be drawn between Kosovo and the Georgian breakaway regions. But that is not how much of the world, including China, South Africa and Indonesia see it. And it is certainly not how Russia sees it. The first chickens of Kosovo's independence are coming home to roost.

Second, President Saakashvili is now very vulnerable. The Russian invasion has cut communications between Tbilisi and the main port in Poti. BP has closed down the pipeline running from Baku to Ceyhan in Turkey through Tbilisi, and Georgian banks are freezing all loans and blocking capital flight. After only a week, the Georgian economy is teetering. And if the wheels do come off the economy, it is hard to see how Mr. Saakashvili might salvage his political position - such a combination of economic distress and military defeat is usually fatal. If he goes, Georgia is likely to fracture politically into a variety of fiefdoms familiar from the 1990s, and living standards will plummet. There is one faint consolation. The West may be impotent when it comes to responding to the situation militarily but it can rally round by offering the country a financial and commercial lifeline.

more at:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080814.wcogeorgia14/BNStory/specialComment/home

[bdamomma]

1. kick

[Muttocracy]

2. K & R nt

[CJCRANE]

3. Neocons got nothing

but exploiting violence to grab the headlines and try to shift the political will back in their favor. Catching al-Qaeda #2's and bombing "al-Qaeda" villages has been overdone and lost its impact so now they tried a deadly "Wag the Dog" scenario.

The last manipulation was of course McCain's "coincidental" rescued hostages in Colombia photo-op. But this new "coincidental" war playing to McCain's supposed strengths looks a bit forced and seems to have back-fired.

[formercia]

4. Georgia becomes a client welfare state

just like Cuba was to the Russians. It seems they returned the favor.

[gatorboy]

5. "The outbreak of the crisis coincided with U.S. President George Bush horse-playing"

with beach volleyball players in Beijing and the Vice-President was in operational control at the time. Mr. Cheney immediately announced the Russian invasion could not go "unanswered.""

Well that line is bullshit. I watched Bush and Putin talking with one another in the stands during the opening ceremonies in Beijing while this conflict was well under way. You can't tell me this didn't come up in conversation.

[Demeter]

6. Shrub Doesn't Engage In Conversation

Surely you didn't think he had any communication skills? He is deaf, dumb and blind at the best of times; at the worst, he's delusional.