Where is my right-wing bro getting this,

[callous taoboy]

besides out of his ass? He keeps claiming that there are huge oil reserves off shore of the U.S. and that we could start seeing big declines in gas prices as a result in 2 to 6 years. I have searched high and low and have not found that claim backed up anywhere except in RW circles. I saw economist Dean Baker on Moyers last Friday and he said these claims are patently false. They even played a clip of Newty on Faux News Sunday and he was spewing this same nonsense, even saying we'd see immediate huge drops in gas prices in 2 years and, much to my shock and amazement, the female host said that no economist would be willing to back these claims up. I tell my bro about this and he shoots back "your guy Dean Baker is a co-founder of a liberal Washington think-tank and is one of your Progressive Democrats ala FDR". I have heard for the past 15 years that there is, at most, 10 months worth of domestic supply of oil in ANWR, and again my RW bro says there is significantly more than that.

Then there is Finnfan's post here in GD, a letter calling BS on these RW talking points and signed by 10 economists. I'd send this to my bro but he'd claim that Dollars And Sense is a liberal blog.

My bro is actually a very intelligent guy but goddammit either he is in some echo chamber or we are. What is it?

[ingac70]

1. Your brother listens to too much RW radio. n/t

[rinsd]

2. Send him McCain;s go to resource......Wikipedia!

In 1998, the USGS estimated that between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels (2.54×109 m³) of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas liquids are in the coastal plain area of ANWR, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels (1.65×109 m³), of which 7.7 billion barrels (1.22×109 m³) lie within the Federal portion of the ANWR 1002 Area.<14> In comparison, the estimated volume of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in the rest of the United States is about 120 billion barrels (1.9×1010 m³). <21> The ANWR and undiscovered estimates are categorized as unproved. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) reports US proved reserves are roughly 29 billion barrels (4.6×109 m³) of crude and natural gas liquids, of which 21 billion barrels (3.3×109 m³) are crude.<22> A variety of sources compiled by the DOE estimate world proved oil and gas condensate reserves to range from 1.1 to 1.3 trillion barrels (210 km³).<23>

The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day (124,000 m³/d) in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day (113,000 m³/d) in 2030. In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day (231,000 m³/d), respectively. Between 2018 and 2030, cumulative additional oil production is 2.6 billion barrels (4.1E+8 m³) for the mean oil resource case, while the low and high resource cases project a cumulative additional oil production of 1.9 and 4.3 billion barrels (680,000,000 m³), respectively.<21> In 2007, the United States consumed 20.68 m bbls of petroleum products per day. It produced roughly 5 million barrels per day (790,000 m³/d) of crude oil, and imported 10 million barrels per day (1,600,000 m³/d) of crude and 3.5 million barrels per day (560,000 m³/d) of petroleum products.<24>

The USGS warns that there is considerable uncertainty regarding both the size and quality of the oil resources that exist in ANWR, since it's estimates are based largely on the oil productivity of geologic formations that exist in the neighboring lands which continue into ANWR. Because of this, it's estimates of the potential ultimate oil recovery and potential yearly production are highly uncertain. <21>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Refuge_drilling_controversy#Estimates_of_oil_reserves

[CitizenPatriot]

37. I'm sorry for your nightmare

I have a few of these in my family, too. It's way past this time, but I try (until I get too angry and disgusted) to ask questions. This works for me, because I play kind of interested and slightly baffled. "oh, really? Gee. I thought they sold that stuff at market prices on the global market. Who told you they were keeping it here? That's great news if it's true. Where can I read up on that?" and on and on.

I have a friend I adore but can't speak to right now because they are "on the fence". No one has a good economic plan, this friend says.
"Okay, but one person will screw you for sure, another will care about the middle class and at least try. What's the debate?"

No dice.

I can't even listen to most of it anymore, which is how I ended up here instead of some other sites I was on. Too upsetting to listen to morons who think their "opinion" is equal to my facts, as if this were a niceness contest and not a matter of FACT. Leave it to the thugs to cry foul and mean when you ask for facts -- then it's a morality debate. That's their last move. God wants us to drill here, drill now. dontcha know? it's saving babies.

[atreides1]

3. He Doesn't Sound That Intelligent

Especially if he has nothing more to back these claims up then the words of known RW ass suckers.

[callous taoboy]

14. Well, I have to agree with you on that point. His MEpublicanism is

a real mystery to me, especially since he helped make me into the liberal I am today. We're talking about a guy that, in the 70's, had hair down to his ass and was an all-around great guy to hang out with. I still love him, but he has done the most amazing, revolting turn around and it has to do with making dough.

[librechik]

4. where is his proof?

why are you the one to go and try to disprove his ravings? he needs to show you his proof or be dismissed as a teller of tall tales.

[callous taoboy]

15. He won't provide it. He cut off our e-mail debate yesterday because,

I think, I hit a sore point. I wasn't hitting below the belt, just asking him how he can be so convinced by politicians.

[librechik]

40. you got him--he has no evidence, just propaganda

poor thing.

[BrklynLiberal]

5. I guess even intelligent guys can be willfully ignorant if it serves to reinforce

what they have already come to believe.
It takes a lot of courage to admit you have been wrong for so many years, and that the idiots on RW radio have actually brain-washed you to such an extent that you cannot even recognize the truth when it bites you in the ass.

http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/cognitive_dissonance.htm

[Aristus]

6. If he's spreading oil company propaganda without taking the oil companies' money,

then he's an idiot. I'm so lucky. My brother is even further to the left than me.

[callous taoboy]

16. My bro is making a killing, no pun intended, off of KBR stock. n/t

[Warpy]

7. He restricts himself to listening to whatever agrees with

itself and partially with him. He's got his opinions handed to him daily, mixed with half truths and bald faced lies, and he's comfortable with that.

You can just tell him he's being lied to and someday he might figure it out and leave it at that. You are not going to be able to convince him of anything, his mind is made up and he's found religion.

The only thing that gets through to people like that is being buried in adversity that their pundits never warned them about. That is happening more and more. When it happens to him, then you might be able to talk sense to him. Until then, just agree to disagree and avoid the subject.

[callous taoboy]

17. Bro is an enigma. Get this: Maybe 6 years ago his religion was

everything that came out of James Kunstler's mouth. He bought me a copy of "Long Emergency." He quit his airline job, grabbed a fat pension and all of his retirement, and began making serious plans to move he and his family to a self-sufficient farm life. He was preaching the end of oil and of modern society as we know it in 10 to 15 years time. Now he rejects all of that, says Kunstler has been wrong a lot. I've got whiplash trying to keep up with where his head is at.

[Warpy]

25. Don't try

but imagine what his family must feel like.

It sounds like he's got a strong paranoid streak and will go with whatever feeds it.

Right now, that's the loony right. Five years from now, he could easily be a raging Marxist.

Just steer the conversation away from his nuttiness as much as possible. You can't fix him. He's got to fix himself.

[callous taoboy]

33. It's always strangely serene at bro's house. I try to stay on his good side

since I do know that he can be as mean as a snake and, yes, paranoid. He also claims to have ESP, so I always keep my thoughts concentrated on say, shag carpeting, when I
think he may be peering into my mind. Kidding.

[Fovea]

8. While we progressives have to actually do the science

and prove our assertions, the RW makes its own reality.

Because, as Colbert says, the truth has a notorious liberal bias.

Tell him to go to his local kneebreaker and borrow like Bush has from China.
Eventually his credit line will look like Murika's. At that point unpleasant things *will* happen to him.

Some folks just need to learn kinetically, and there are few things as good as a baseball bat wielded by a goodfella to teach one an unforgettable lesson.

You can make your own reality, but it is not as real as a Louisville Slugger.

[tannybogus]

9. It's part of the "idiot design" school of science.

They don't just disbelieve evolution. They make up whatever they want.

I'm sure it is in a book somewhere that one of them printed.:crazy:

[babylonsister]

10. FromMcClatchy:

Here're the savings from Arctic drilling — 75 cents a barrel

By Erika Bolstad | McClatchy Newspapers



WASHINGTON — If Congress were to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, crude oil prices would probably drop by an average of only 75 cents a barrel, according to Department of Energy projections issued Thursday.

The report, which was requested in December by Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, found that oil production in the refuge "is not projected to have a large impact on world oil prices."

But the report also finds that opening ANWR could have other benefits, particularly in Alaska, where tapping the resources in the Arctic refuge could extend the lifespan of the trans-Alaska pipeline. It estimates that if Congress agreed to open ANWR this year, Alaskan oil could hit the market in about 10 years.

more...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/38223.html

[callous taoboy]

35. The guy who stocks the coke machine at McClatchy?

Liberal, so no dice there, babylonsister, but nice try.

[babylonsister]

36. How about

an Alaskan newspaper? I hear there's mostly rethugs up there. :shrug:

http://www.adn.com/anwr/story/414808.html

[kestrel91316]

11. Not a day goes by that I don't thank my lucky stars that my sister

(and BIL and niece and nephew, too) is a liberal Democrat. It's bad enough that my BIL's mom is a raving RWer. BIL's dad is a moderate conservative who hates Bush (and who I am slowly convincing that being gay is a biological fact and not a lifestyle choice).

[callous taoboy]

18. You are lucky. Both of my bros have been visited by the pod people.

And BTW, I have a good friend who has a very cool Republican father-in-law who detests Bush with a purple passion and is voting Obama.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

12. Remind him that even if there's an abundance of oil in the US

There is nothing that requires oil companies to sell it here in the US exclusively. They can sell it to China or India if they want, and since those 2 countries are rapidly developing overall world demand for oil will continue to rise. Your brother will never see gas prices below $3.50 in his life, I predict.

[Blue_Tires]

13. ask him if he discredits everyone who is affiliated with a think tank

there will be NOBODY on the right he can cite anymore....

[callous taoboy]

20. Thanks to another DUer I'm reading Sagan's Billions and Billions:

Brilliant book, so accurate, timely, and heart-felt all at once it is a bit overwhelming in that regard. It has helped me see where my brother is at right now in his life.

[mnhtnbb]

19. Self delete dup

[callous taoboy]

23. Damn shame, though, that debate is a dying means of not just

convincing, but of educating.

[mnhtnbb]

26. There was never any debate. Not only would she not entertain a different point of view

if you were to be talking (not e-mailing) she'd cut you off. It was impossible to have a conversation
with her. She talked, somebody else listened. If, by chance, you got a word in edgewise, she'd have
some rationalization for why you were wrong and she was right.

We live across the country from each other. After 4 hours in her house, I was ready to go home.
Now I don't have to worry about "when are you coming to visit" anymore.

[callous taoboy]

30. Yup, there are a few folks I want to see behind a plow some day.n/t

[mnhtnbb]

21. I cut off communication with my RW SIL. She pushed me over the edge

with that BS e-mail about Obama not visiting the troops in Afghanistan. It was a long time coming, though, and not all about politics.

When someone tells you she isn't interested in facts, she just has this opinion, then you have to pack up your argument and go home. You can't reason with people who refuse to listen to reason.

I don't listen to Rush. I've blocked e-mail from SIL and I'm not listening to her any more, either.

[Vinca]

22. His source is probably Limpballs, esp. since he won't provide proof. nt

[callous taoboy]

24. That pedophile junkie Rush Limbaugh? Heh. My stepmom is now

certifiably insane after listening to that crap now for 10 years. She used to be pretty hip, a feminist, maybe even a Dem., but that has all been supplanted by assertions based on reaching for your ass.

[Vinca]

27. Some people must be more gullible than others. nt

[mnhtnbb]

28. Hubby's BIL (sister's husband) listens to Rush religiously.

It's amazing. This was a guy who fought the fascists in WWII. And now, he supports the Bushie fascists
at home. Blows me away.

[Liberal In Texas]

29. People who repeat this meme have the idea the oil drilled in the US

will stay in the US. I like to ask them why they think that if we give these natural resources to the oil companies that it will stay here.

What they're drilling here now doesn't. It's all sold on the world market.

[callous taoboy]

31. I brought this up, too, right before my face met the door.

[sinkingfeeling]

32. There's a copy of a letter from an Oklahoma oilman at this post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3784689

I thought it was interesting. Bartlesville, OK is the headquarters of ConocoPhillips and sits in the middle of oil fields. You can actually smell the oil in the air.

[callous taoboy]

34. Interesting letter. Bro claims that big oil has already located the oil

in the Gulf of Mexico, have found it is in some kind of spongy porous, easy to drill, area and not too deep, and there is a lot of it.

The oil from that area may help with erectile dysfunction as well. :sarcasm:

[Sal Minella]

39. At least Cheney's ED, you can bet.....

[Love Bug]

38. Would a government study help?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ogp/results.html

"It is expected that the price impact of ANWR coastal plain production might reduce world oil prices by as much as 30 to 50 cents per barrel, relative to a projected 2025 world oil price of $27 per barrel (2002 dollars) in the AEO2004 reference case. Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could countermand any potential price impact of ANWR coastal plain production by reducing its exports by an equal amount."

If I understand this study correctly, the government is depending on ANWR drilling to make up for the projected decline in other Alaskan drilling with a rather modest net gain.

This is a very interesting site. There's info about off-shore drilling, too.