Russian Offensive Imperils U.S. Aims on Iran, Energy

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Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military campaign in Georgia may threaten the U.S. strategic aims of preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and securing Central Asian energy supplies for Europe.

The Russian-Georgian fighting ``will imperil U.S.-Russian diplomacy no matter what,'' said Cliff Kupchan of New York-based Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. The U.S. and European reactions will make Russia ``more obstinate at the Security Council,'' where President George W. Bush seeks to impose tougher United Nations sanctions on the Iranian government, he said.

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Georgia's role in a U.S.-backed energy corridor to Europe for oil and natural gas from former Soviet areas of Central Asia, a route that skirts Russia, may be in doubt. That strategy counted on Russia respecting Georgia's sovereignty.

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American assumptions about Russian acquiescence in major policy issues may now be undercut, said Stephen Sestanovich, a senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

The conflict is the ``first demonstration of Russian military power to break one of the former Soviet states, and that sort of gets to the stability of the framework that the U.S. thought was going to govern the post-Cold War world,'' he said.

`No Leverage'

Kupchan said the U.S. now has ``virtually no leverage on Russia.'' An envoy at a higher level than Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza, whose area of interest includes the Caucasus, should be sent to the region, he said.

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