What happens if Georgia joins NATO?

[sknabt]

"Georgia's and Ukraine's membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security." - Alexander Grushko, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister

"We are particularly concerned by the possibility of our immediate neighbors becoming a bridgehead for the deployment of strategic elements of a military machine." - Grigory Karasin, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs

"Russia will take steps aimed at ensuring its interests along its borders and these will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different nature" - Yuri Baluyevsky, head of Russian military

As I understand things, Georgia was pretty much promised NATO membership sometime. Maybe the current crisis revolving around break-away region South Ossetia nixes that deal by pointing out the instability there. Of course, more's going on than mere instability. Russia still sees Georgia as an estranged child and is furious Georgia will leave its sphere of influence by joining NATO.

If the NATO membership goes through I can't see Russia being crazy enough cross Georgia's borders again. But you never know. Putin is a hard-ass nationalist who might test the West. Are we recreating the classic "entangled alliances" scenario?

There's also Bagdad Bush's plan to roll out his missile defense system throughout NATO which is agitating Russia. I know of no concrete plans to place them in Georgia - other than mutterings by Bush who is soon to be out of the picture - but you do know how the neo-cons like playing with their toys. Would a President McCain parrot Bush?

[Midlodemocrat]

1. Florida will be pissed.

:hide:

[tama]

2. No fear of that

Georgia has not been getting positive noises for its NATO membership except from US (especially from McCain) and some former Soviet block countries, most European NATO members are not enthusiastic. Most European NATO members are dependent from Russian oil and natural gas and have good understanding of political realism and balance of power and don't seek confrontation with Russia - for their own good.

[sknabt]

4. Aren't any objections just temporary?

"Opponents of accession for the two former Soviet states argue that their objection is one of timing, not substance, saying that membership is not a matter of 'if, but when.' Whether or not Putin or President-elect Dmitri Medvedev agree is another question. This may be a finessing of language, experts say, since members can't suggest that Russia has a veto over NATO. But, as one Baltic diplomat put it: 'Ukraine and Georgia won't join NATO because of Russia, but Vladimir Putin doesn't have a veto over NATO?'" - emphasis added

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0328/p01s01-woeu.html


Prior to the latest hostilities, it looked like it was going to be an eventuality. Which probably is Russia's point now in attacking Georgian territory. The South Ossetia situation is a nice excuse to kick the idea of NATO membership to the curb for a while.

But this is going to make Georgia and Ukraine more insistent than ever to get under NATO's protective umbrella. Will memories of this fade in a year or two and NATO relent?

Of course, Bagdad Bush loves the idea because it helps spread his missile defense system around Europe. I can't envision Bush's 3rd term being any different should McCain get elected.

[tama]

8. Sein und Zeit

Being is temporality.

In the temporal space that Europe is dependant from Russian energy, Russia has European pillar of NATO by the balls and can extort concession it considers vital. Georgia and Ukraine becoming more insistent is not going to change that fact.

In the temporal space when Europe is no more dependant on Russian energy, it does not matter any more. Global capitalism has collapsed for all practical considerations and NATO fancy stuff from tanks to jets rusts as scrap metal without oil to make go.

Sorry, just trying to keep it simple.

[Tab]

3. What the frick is going on with Georgia anyway?

This all just seemed to flare up, but I missed the backstory.

[sknabt]

6. Post-Soviet era instability

I'm not sure colonialism is the right term for the Soviet block that fell apart with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But doesn't colonialism lead to this sort of instability? Some strong arm power draws up phony national borders and identities then keeps them glued together with military might?

When the colonial power exits the faux unity becomes unglued.

Georgia hasn't been stable since its independence in 1991. Adjara, Abkhazia and South Ossetia all sought autonomy. Nor was the rest of Georgia immune from disorder under the corrupt rule of Shevardnadze.

The Rose Revolution in 2003 overturned the results of a corrupt election. After that, the dictator running Adjara was forced out and fled to his buddies in Russia. At the time, Russia had military troops based there. Georgia seeks to keep Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the fold as well. Are they acting like a mini Soviet Union?

Georgia is rightly scared to death of Russia. Russia desperately wants to control Ukraine and Georgia. Naturally, Georgia wants to join NATO to get under their protective wing. Naturally, Russia is opposed to this because it'll put a stop to their cat and mouse games plus Russia is paranoid of the missile defense system that might end up there.

It's a complex problem naturally lost on Bush who dreams only of building missile silos ringing Russia.

Putin is smarter and tougher than Bush. He's boldly reasserting Russia's might bolstered by massive profits from his country's natural gas and oil industry. He's also exploiting the fact Europe is desperate for these products.

[Tab]

9. Thanks for that, I hadn't been following it

And I agree Putin is lightyears beyond Bush. Putin is a smart, cagey bastard, not to be underestimated. You don't get to run the KGB by being dumb and nice.

Bush and his stupid "I looked into his soul" or whatever the frick he said - how embarassing. At that moment, Putin knew he had a lightweight idiot as a contender.

[wuushew]

5. I find it ironic how the scope of the North Atantic is creeping ever Eastward

past the Balkans and into central Asia.

[sknabt]

7. Let's just add Russia to NATO

... and end any potential for conflict. ;)

[bushmeister0]

10. One name: Randy Scheuneman, PNAC alum and friend of Chalabi

"A top foreign policy adviser to John McCain has lobbied the National Security Council, Congress and the State Department on behalf of Stephen Payne, the Texas businessman and longtime Republican fundraiser caught up in a controversy over whether he sought to sell access to the Bush White House.

According to records on file with Congress, McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann lobbied the Senate and House on behalf of Payne's firm, Worldwide Strategic Partners Inc., in 2002.

Scheunemann also lobbied the National Security Council and the State Department regarding energy issues in the Caspian region in 2005 and 2006 on behalf of another Payne firm, Caspian Alliance Inc., according to the records.

The fees to Scheunemann's firm amounted to $50,000.

On Monday, the McCain campaign said that from 2002 to 2006, Scheunemann periodically engaged in consulting relationships with the two companies and that Scheunemann was never on the payroll of either firm, but that he was an occasional outside expert consultant."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3403983

Note also,

"Scheunemann attacked Russia’s policy toward Georgia while neglecting to disclose that he had been a paid lobbyist for Georgiauntil as late as December 2007."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3403983&mesg_id=3404072

Right Web:

"According to the Financial Times, while serving as 'an American adviser to the Georgian government'" in late 2006, Scheunemann was critical of the Bush administration during its consultations with Russia in the U.N. Security Council regarding security issues in Georgia. He accused Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of 'appeasement' for acquiescing to Russia’s demand for a U.N. resolution regarding the Russia-supported republic of Abkhazia, which broke away from Georgia, in exchange for Russia's support of sanctions on North Korea in the wake of that country's nuclear test. Said Scheunemann: 'What Rice approved was a weak, ambiguous resolution on North Korea. They sold out the Georgians. That was the trade.'"

<snip>

"Much of Scheunemann’s work, in both the public and private spheres, has been oriented toward Europe, promoting democratic programs and expanding NATO to former Soviet-bloc countries. A board member (along with McCain) of the International Republican Institute (IRI), a key institutional vehicle through which the National Endowment for Democracy carries out its work, Scheunemann has worked closely with Bruce Jackson, a fellow former PNAC director, on NATO expansion issues, serving as a board member of Jackson's U.S. Committee on NATO and as a registered lobbyist and/or consultant for Georgia, Latvia, Macedonia, and Romania."


Another interesting tib bit (it's worth reading the whole piece):

"Scheunemann told the New York Sun that despite a number of 'realists' such as Brent Scowcroft among McCain’s other foreign policy advisors, his own influence, as well as that of other like-minded advisers like William Kristol and Robert Kagan, has been paramount. 'I don't think, given where John has been for the last four or five years on the Iraq War and foreign policy issues, anyone would mistake Scowcroft for a close adviser,' Scheunemann said, adding that even if Scowcroft were close, McCain 'was not taking the advice.'"

http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1347.html

I'd say McShame gets in we're into WWIII about five minutes after he takes the oath.

[sknabt]

11. What would McCain do with Georgian conflict?

"We are not at war with the Georgian state." - Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russian spokesman

"We don’t intend to take the initiative to escalate the conflict at this time." - Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russian spokesman

Speaking of paid spin doctors. This said as Russian troops departed ships onto Georgian soil and artillery strikes expanded.

South Ossetia has something like 70,000 residents. If anyone thinks this is about Russia caring about this puny little break-away region they're delusional. It's a clear reaction to Georgia leaving Russia's sphere of influence and move towards the West's.

You bring up an interesting point. How would McCain react? He loves to boast he's no sissy who runs to the negotiating table.

You mention neo-con chicken hawk Bill Kristol is a major foreign policy adviser. Kristol would love to reignite hostilities with Russia. The Cold War was great for neo-con politics because their philosophy requires a boogieman to rally the nation around with their unending flag waving. The invasion of Iraq was a classic example of neo-conism in action.

So would McCain push for US involvement in Georgia via NATO? Ponder this:

"McCain said NATO's decision to withhold a Membership Action Plan for Georgia 'may have been viewed as a green light for aggression in the region.'" (http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSN09504234)

So McCain, like Bush (huge surprise), is for Georgian NATO membership. If this crisis escalates will we see a neo-con effort to push for a military response? Their only hesitancy would be a lack of US troops but they can always use NATO as a surrogate and, if McCain becomes prez, it's a great talking point to sell a massive US military build-up.