GOP Is Losing Ground
Republicans no longer have a realistic chance of holding their own in this year's Senate contests.
by Charlie Cook
Sat. Jul 19, 2008
One of the less pleasant aspects of writing a political column when one party is having a particularly grim year is that the story gets so repetitive. Some years, the Democrats are in the political toilet. This year, the Republicans are in that unenviable position.
In the presidential race, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is behind but still very competitive. For the GOP, that is the bright spot on the horizon. In the House and Senate contests, the debate is about how many seats the Republicans will lose; they no longer have a realistic chance of holding their own.
So, even though a nonpartisan analyst naturally desires to be balanced, in a year like this I can place very little good news on the Republican side of the scale.
In the Senate races, the outlook for the GOP is bad and getting worse. Few Republicans think that they have any real hope of holding retiring Sen. John Warner's seat in Virginia. Former Gov. Mark Warner, who is a Democrat, appears to have a lock on that contest, which The Cook Political Report rates as "Likely Democratic." In New Mexico, where Republican Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is the underdog, trailing Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in a contest that we moved this week from the "Toss-Up" column to "Leans Democratic."
In Oregon, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith faces an increasingly difficult challenge from Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. The Cook Political Report this week shifted that race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up." The GOP's problem isn't so much that Merkley is an especially formidable challenger; it's just that the political climate has effectively erased the natural advantages that Smith brings to the race.
Smith's contest joins five others involving Republican-held seats that we had already rated as "Toss-Ups"--those of incumbents Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and appointed Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, as well as the open seat in Colorado where Wayne Allard is retiring. Sununu's situation is looking increasingly ominous; Coleman's stock has risen, although not quite enough to warrant a move to the "Leans Republican" category.
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