What do you suppose the REAL inflation rate is?

[Junkdrawer]

The CPI says that it's 4% (May 2007 to May 2008): http://www.bls.gov/CPI/#overview

That just doesn't seem to match in increases I'm paying at the pump, at the grocery store, for my utilities.

I'm guessing it's more like 10% to 20% over the last 6 months alone.

Remember: Government has STRONG motives to lie about this:
1.) Incumbents don't want to take the heat for large increases.
2.) Social Security increases are indexed to the CPI, to say nothing about union contracts. Reporting a big CPI increase will add fuel to inflation.

Bonus question: How long can they lie about this before it just gets absurd? :shrug:

[Arctic Dave]

1. I've been thinking about this too. n/t

[phantom power]

2. Oh, definitely at least 15% or so, if you include food and energy.

[Junkdrawer]

3. I just found out: Food and Fuel aren't included in the CPI:

:wtf:

...

And just how does the government cook the books to hide the real inflation? Simple: it lies about the Consumer Price Index. The CPI was put into place in the 1920s to monitor the cost of goods and services. During the Carter administration, the decision was made to remove high-cost items like food and fuel prices that would drive the CPI higher.

Now, when the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, it bases interest rates on the core inflation rate; in other words, inflation without including the cost of food and fuel. That’s how the government can tell you the inflation rate is low all the while your eyes can check the prices at the supermarket and at the gas pump and can tell you there is inflation.

...


http://texasholdemblogger.wordpress.com/2008/03/22/the-real-inflation-rate/

[phantom power]

5. There *is* a reason for that....

and the reason is that food and fuel fluctuate, and so they traditionally leave food/fuel out of short-term inflation rates. Like over 6 month periods.

However, food/fuel have now been rising rapidly and consistently for at least a couple years now, so their refusal to report effective long-term inflation rates is clearly an effort to avoid admitting what everybody already knows.

[lurky]

4. Supposedly they have been cooking it for years,

just like the unemployment rate. A little bit here and a little bit there for political gain, then eventually it's just totally out of whack with reality. I think Kennedy was one of the first, so nobody is innocent.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. 30% and it is accelerating

my bills, and I am buying the same, are consistently going up by five percent every week

[DJ13]

7. Heres a website

Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

http://www.shadowstats.com/

[Junkdrawer]

8. Look at it this way: It's one way of solving the Social Security "Crisis"...

If the difference between the CPI and Actual Inflation averages 10% over, say, 10 years, by the time a good portion of Baby Boomers retire, your monthly SS check will buy a case of cat food and that's about all....

Yum...

[whistle]

9. 12% to 15% anualized and this will increase every week moving forward