Will Wind Power provide 20% of our electriciy in 8 years?

[JohnWxy]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x156894#156900

[ladjf]

1. If your prediction turns out to be true, the oil monopoly will be OVER.

And even if the factor were to go only to 10%, a lot of pressure would be off of oil, coal and nukes.
Add to that solar, tidal and geothermal and we could well have 20% in eight years. Why isn't this
goal the number one project in America? I think most of you know the answer. The oil, coal and nuke industries are writing the energy policy for the U.S. They are doing everything possible to inhibit the advent of alternate energy sources.

[JohnWxy]

2. We would need more aggressive participation by the Government to help wind turbine manufacturers

expand their production capacity (currently the limiting factor in wind farm installations is the lead time for wind turbines - 1+ year) and help (underwriting loans for example lowering risk to investors and making it cheaper for borrowers) to accelerate installations of high tension lines to bring the power from remote wind farms to population centers, to hit the 20% figure.

But as you say, even if we just hit 10%, which I'm confident we will do, it's a sign that change is possible, there is a way out and it won't take 50 years to make a difference. (this pertains to electric power production. Demand for oil for transportation is another problem requiring development of batteries and fuel cells to really make a dent in oil consumption.

Before that, Ford is working with MIT researchers/engine designers on an ethanol enabled direct injection engine that reduces fuel consumption 25% to 30% while only using 5% ethanol and 95% gasoline. Ford expects to have this engine in mass production by 2011 at a cost of $600 - $1,000 each (perhaps a few hundred dollars more than the engines currently used in cars). NOte that we will be producing enough ethanol to equal 5% of the total fuel supply in probably less thana 2 years.

Because of the relatively low cost of this engine it should be adapted much faster than more expensive technologies and should have a near term impact on oil demand much greater than some of the more demanding (costly) technologies you hear talked about. And we need something that will make an impact sooner than later - till the more advanced technologies (plug in hybrids like the Volt) become a reality and more cost effective.