6/20 Election Model - Obama Jumps to 352EV, Leads Newsweek Poll 51-36

[tiptoe]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6397150&mesg_id=6397150 - x

2008 ELECTION MODEL
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation


TruthIsAll

Updated: June 20
2008 Election Model.htm

 
 
6/20/2008
State
Aggregate
Poll
National
5-Poll
Average
State
2-party
Projection
National
2-party
Projection
Monte Carlo Simulation
Expected         Win
       EV             Prob

Obama
46.4              48.2              52.83              54.32                   352             100.0

McCain
42.9              41.6              47.17              45.68                   186               0.0

    

10-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-poll Mov Avg

 

2-pty Projection

Trend
                          
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup

ABC/WP
COOK/RT
Zogby
NBC/WSJ
Hotline/FD

Date
        
6/19
6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17

6/15
6/15
6/14
6/09
6/08

Size
              
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV

--
880 RV
1113 LV
1000 RV
806 RV

 

Obama
        
50
51
45
48
47

49
44
47
47
44

McCain
        
44
36
41
45
42

45
40
42
41
42

Spread
        
6
15
4
3
5

4
4
5
6
2

 

Obama
        
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8

46.2
45.0
46.0
46.2
46.2

McCain
        
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0

42.0
41.0
42.2
42.2
42.8

 

Obama
        
54.3
54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5

53.3
53.4
53.1
53.2
52.8

McCain
        
45.7
45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5

46.7
46.6
46.9
46.8
47.2

[whistle]

1. If this continues the GOP will dump McCain and put real fascists on their ticket

...Arnold Schwarzenegger and Michael Blomberg

[JDPriestly]

2. Schwarzenegger is not qualified to be president because he was

not born an American citizen. Bloomberg is liked in New York but not elsewhere.

[tiptoe]

3. re real fascists: Olbermann & Palast on Gramm, Lay/Enron, DLC-Clinton, McCain, Sch*zenegger...

Check out Olbermann's exposé on the Chairwoman of the pre-Clinton Commodities Futures Trading Commission (Wendy Gramm, wife of McCain-advisor and former TX Senator Phil Gramm) and her influence in making "hands off Enron" official regulatory policy of the CFTC that Clinton inherited.

Then note the highlighted words of KO: "Clinton never undid Gramm's changes."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6384550&mesg_id=6385943

Bill Clinton's inaction on CFTC "hands off regulatory policy" re Enron/Lay, then, may be indirectly responsible for Ken Lay's filching activities between 1992 and 2000, preliminary to Lay's gaming of Caifornia's energy markets in 2000 that's costing CA $11B.

McCain, too, has been unwilling to close the "Enron Loophole" according to KO.

Bill Clinton -- recommender of GWBush advisor Mark Penn for Hillary's campaign ("Hillary Endorses McCain above Obama - Again and Again") -- has something in common with McCain: the Enron Loophole.

(I wonder if Hillary's commodities success had anything to do with CFTC favoritism.)

[tiptoe]

4. K!