What bothers me with these predictions and gets me called names and insulted for bringing it up is the fact that new technologies or lifestyle changes can cut oil consumption:
It takes 7-8 calories of grain and corn to make 1 calorie of meat. So maybe we'll all start seeing meat as a luxury, but I don't think we'll starve.
Scuderi engines can increase gas mileage by 30% or more
Carbon fiber frames instead of steel frames also can give a 30% gas boost
Using diesel instead of gas can increase car mpg
Hydraulic hybrids can increase mpg 50%.
There is enough potential energy in nuclear, geothermal, wind, water and solar to power dozens of earths.
Buying locally grown foods can save oil
Rationing of oil can be done so that semis that transport grains or corn from locally grown farmers are given higher priority than semis that transport living room sets from California to Maine.
There are attempts to make fuel products out of carbon dioxide captured from coal plants or the atmosphere using bacteria or algae.
etc.
A ford Taurus with a hydraulic hybrid got 85 mpg. Imagine combining that with aluminum and carbon fiber parts as well as a scuderi engine. 150+ mpg passenger car. Imagine using that tech on a semi, tractor or delivery truck
http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6549294.htmlI think that we will mobilize like we did in WW2 to deal with peak oil. When it really hits I hope we will see public & private investments, restructuring of our economy and rationing that will help us deal with the truly bad shocks. I'm sure there will be pain and deprivation but I personally doubt civilization will collapse.
A minor increase in food and oil prices has already caused hundreds of millions of people in the developing world to be unable to afford food.
Is the contemporary american lifestyle sustainable? Not for long. I think there will be a massive shock that causes us to change lifestyle and energy.
But this idea that the only option is to maintain our current lifestyle and current technology throughout the peak oil curve isn't realistic to me. We will adapt. It'll hurt, but I think the truly painful parts can be avoided.
We are spending $500 billion a year in tax cuts for the rich and the war in Iraq. That is $1,700 per year for every man, woman and child. Yet civilization still survives. What if we were eventually forced to spend $500 billion on energy R&D or implementing that tech? What could happen if we direct that $500 billion into giving a family of four $7,000 a year in help shifting to a post oil economy?
For those who say 'the tech cannot be scaled up', what is to stop us from retrofitting cars, semis, combines and tractors with hydraulic hybrid drivetrains or scuderi engines? These don't require (to my knowledge) esoteric parts. If we did that alone we could probably save 40% of our oil consumption.