Politico: Troubling Signs for McCain from GOP Poll (LCG)

[featherman]

GOP strategist Steve Lombardo has a new poll and finds some troubling signs for McCain therein.

I was especially struck by his small lead among white voters -- keep a close eye on that figure after Obama secures the nomination.

LCG conducted a national survey of 1,000 registered voters May 26-28th. The following are the highlights:

The poor economy is THE driving force in this election. The economy is by far the most important issue for Americans, eclipsing Iraq by more than a 2 to 1 margin. Healthcare and social/moral issues are tied for third.

President Bush is dead weight for nearly every Republican running in November. Bush’s favorability is at 32%. More importantly, nearly half of voters (49%) have a “very unfavorable” opinion of the President.

McCain and Obama start the election with similar favorability ratings. Both have similar unfavorable ratings (approximately 40%); there are, however, some differences among specific sub-groups:
McCain does better among those who are married, non-Catholic Christians and evangelicals.
Obama does better among those who are younger, not married, have college degrees and are non-Christians.

In a head-to-head, Obama is beating McCain by a very narrow margin (44% to 40%). As we have said before, we believe that Obama will get a 10-point bounce once he is officially the nominee and Clinton voters “return home.” Having said that, this data is instructional as to where the strengths and weaknesses lie for each candidate.

more at the link:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0608/Warning_signs_for_McCain.html

[ryanmuegge]

1. McCain will win because the corporate media have successfully decoupled him from Bush.

As well as McCain from other Republicans in general. All of McCain's flip-flopping has been very effective in that it has made him very difficult to pin down, and the media have not taken him to task for the act of flip-flopping in and of itself.

[hwmnbn]

5. The media cannot "de-couple" him from McCain....

if Obama consistently makes that connection on the stump. Obama has been persistent on making that point and the media must cover it whether they want to or not. Obama knows how to shape the narrative by deflecting criticism and turning it back on the source. He's fucking good at that!!

The media likes conflict and Obama will wail on McCain all summer. Using Bush as one hammer, Obama will pound McCain into the ground and we get to watch. This will be fun.

[ryanmuegge]

6. Obama's been trying his best, but the talking heads haven't spun it that way.

Obama and the DNC have been doing a good job of trying to get that message out there, but all the talking heads say is, "not your usual Republican," "maverick," "moderate," "hero," etc.

The polling data I've seen about pubilc perception of John McCain, some of the hypothetical horserace polls, and some of Obama's perceived "negatives" with white "independents" concern me.

The objective facts, unfortunately, don't matter to the media. They have their own agenda and create perceptions that are often independent from facts. The notion Bush is a master debater is one example.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Very interesting...

Let's hope the trends that favor Obama continue to strengthen.

I believe they will!

I want Obama to mop the floor with McCain!

Well, a girl can dream, can't she?

[AndyTiedye]

3. Albatross! Get Yer Albatross!

[dbackjon]

8. Please don't slander the wonderful creatures known as Albatrosses

By assoctiating them with Dubya. Them's fighting words.

[PATRICK]

4. Headed for a cave-in

Which the media will resist and only cave by the signs of a careful fade-away. Conservatives hate him. The religious right deals are dysfunctional and badly handled, much more deeply wounding than the Pastor Wright trivia which does not affect any Dem base in any such critical manner. McCain is all deals and all myth in a sense that none of them are functional, though inescapably necessary.

The hardening of the GOP political arteries has not been diagnosed, noted or forced into real performance yet. There is nothing but the silent treatment for his scandals, hypocrisy, age dysfunctions, health, Bush problem, GOP record, the economy or any policy he cannot change at all, base disaffection, money woes.

Today is the phony picture. People are simply not engaged no matter how wonks tear their hair out or the Bushies take comfort in having things so static and so good for them in the power moment.

Without a great figure that automatically commands national popularity, such as an Eisenhower or an incumbent, things will not begin to resolve into a crushing Obama victory until the Convention. Instead of a bounce it can likely be just a confirmed high point till November with the GOP Convention even potentially soured by libertarians and Conservatives- while McCain will be forced to pick someone "conciliatory" as Veep, likely a Bush drone like Romney.

The MSM will never react rationally to let you see that any more than it clearly outlined Bush's decline in popularity or the Recession of 2008.

[bill for obama]

7. I think we got dirty tricked the last two times -

And we should take NO CHANCES this time cause by this time - we should expect the same thing. This really could get close in the end.

I really think Obama should take Hillary as running mate - because of nothing more than I think - the GOP - may fool men again this time - but not women - not older women.

I am not exactly a big supporter of hers - but I want to win too.

[Old and In the Way]

9. It's all downhill from here for McSame.

His best polling days are behind him. Seriously, the past few months were the time for him to capitalize on the heated Democratic primaries....he couldn't do it. He has no "base" except the media...and there aren't nearly enough of them to make a difference. Plus, the pressure and exposure is going to grow on John. His gaffs and ties to lobbyists will undercut any "message" he's trying to cultivate. And I expect at least 1, possible more, meltdowns from the Maverick that will make people really wonder if he'd be a good person to handle the football.

[Disturbed]

10. Many people seem to feel that Obama is merely a nice guy

that cannot be tough. Wrong! He will take the gloves off once he is the Nominee.

[Old and In the Way]

11. I'm impressed with the reaction speed that Obama counters any McSame smear.

This guy was schooled in Chicago politics...I don't have any worries that he can't return a rebuttal twice as fast and twice as hard as he received it. I honestly think he's going to tie McCain up so much on his policy contradictions and speaking gaffe's that we'll all be feeling a little sorry for the old fella by the time November rolls around.