Chinese demand is driving up oil prices? Pull the other one.

[Hannah Bell]

Take a look at the 2nd & 3rd charts. Chinese demand rising ~6% - but look at the baseline. They use 6% of global supply, but produce ~4% of global supply.

Now look at the US & EU; they use 26% & 19% respectively & produce little of that. US demand down 4% from Jan last year, from a much larger baseline. Which should have the bigger impact, China's 6% increase from 2% of total, or US drop from 1/4 of total?

http://www.marktaw.com/culture_and_media/politics/GlobalOil.html

World demand is rising about 1.5%/year; that's not any more than in prior years - less, in fact.

Think about it. China make 70% of world's shoes. Is that NEW industry, or just a relocation of old industry?

The Chinese market is still small in the greater scheme of things.

It's not Chinese demand increasing prices 400%. Let alone Indian demand.

[Hannah Bell]

1. More on the bubble.

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html


With rice, the media talked about shortages & poor harvests but neglected to tell us 2007 was a world record. It's almost like they want everyone to be confused & fearful.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

5. It is becoming increasingly evident...

That much of the "shortages" we are seeing now are the result of hoarding and market and delivery manipulations. Congress has started grilling the oil companies, but so much more has to be done. They need to do the same thing in the food industries and the commodity markets as a whole.

We have some stories regarding this on the front page, over at http://worldnewstrust.com

[tama]

11. Remember

Only 12% of worlds oil resources controlled by "Big Oil" private corps, rest is nationalized.

What you are suggesting is that Congress renouncess capitalism. Not going to happen.

[dantyrant]

56. Not entirely...

Stockpiles of some commodities are down to levels not previously seen in over fifty years, like grains for example(ethanol mandates are not helping, clearly).

The bubble's burst, and we're in the so-called 'crack-up boom' now -- a flight to real goods. Those goods which are relatively scarce will be bid up dramatically, and will be subject to speculative manias.

The cause of all this is the debasement of the dollar. Money is supposed to serve two functions: serve as a unit of account, and a store of value. The dollar isn't up to either task, and so price relationships get distorted.

[tama]

8. Stagnant since 2005

January 2008 the latest top, but not much more that 2005. The graph looks like a plateau. With Russia peaking, global production entering the down slope.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3835

[KharmaTrain]

19. I'm Calling It A "Shell" Game...

The "bubble" is speculation...just like how stock prices ran up during the dot com boom or real estate prices went up during the real estate "bubble"...It was great when we were all making money and benfitting...that is, you can and do if you're playing the market or have stock. While the oil prices are going up, so are your stocks and dividends. Wanna know where the money is coming from to pay off the big shitpile? You're looking at it and paying for it.

No doubt the oil companies and this regime want to confuse people...wash their hands of blame and blame the A-rabs or Chinese or some other boogiemen rather than exposing those within their own coven who are manipulating prices and profiting from them. Another case of this regime misdirecting the anger and blame.

My concern right now isn't as much the high price of gas, but the rising costs of diesel. I remember the oil crisis of the 70's and diesel always was a bargain. Some may remember people started to buy diesel cars to cut their costs. So what's different now than then? And if those prices continue to rise, truckers will start pulling their rigs off the road...then we'll have some serious shortages of many things...

[Mimosa]

2. The US is sitting on our oil reserves.

I've long known the US is sitting on our oil reserves. We need to power our cars some other way though.

It's despicable that manufacturing jobs were outsourced to China. It's reprehensible that service industry jobs -such as answering phones and processing credit card payments- have been outsourced to India. People in our rural areas and inner cities could use those jobs.

[Deja Q]

62. More, those jobs were entry level jobs so people within could work up from them.

It's hard to have x years' experience when you can't even build that experience.

Globalization, in theory, isn't a bad thing. Unfortunately, all of it feels like a petty migration, and it's hurting American citizens too. And then it's about quantity over quality, or even quality control, which leads to this:

All the recalls of Chinese products, from countries including Russia (so it's not an "American" problem but a "global" one, and token executions of token leaders won't work if the recalls and reports of problems/poisonings/etc remain.)

[notadmblnd]

3. Don't cha know... they have to fuel all those Fords GM and Chryslers

they've been such a hurry to buy since our factories and jobs have relocated over there. :sarcasm:

[Rageneau]

4. We should NATIONALIZE our oil industry -- as a matter of national security.

[SammyWinstonJack]

22. Never gonna happen.

x(

[macracan]

25. I second that.

It is anathema to our capitalist society, but this is not a business, it is highway robbery!

[ColbertWatcher]

6. You rock Hannah! k+r n/t

[tama]

7. As you said

"World demand is rising about 1.5%/year"

while world supply is stagnant.

And those are 2003 numbers, ages ago. Fresher numbers about China:

" BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Soaring oil prices have not slowed China's consumption of oil as statistics show that China's apparent consumption of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first quarter of the year.

According to statistics released Tuesday by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China's apparent consumption of oil products composed of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 16.5 percent year on year to 52.73 million tonnes in the first three months, and crude oil, rose by eight percent to91.8 million tonnes.

(---)

China's net imports of crude oil was 44.95 million tonnes in the first quarter, up 14.9 percent, and net imports of oil products rose by 31.8 percent from a year ago to 5.47 million tonnes, according to General Administration of Customs.

China's imports of diesel in the first quarter surged over 600 percent to 1.66 million tonnes and the imports of gasoline, rose by nearly twice to 76,654 tonnes. "

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/29/content_8075648.htm

"Oil Oil constituted 20.3 percent of China's total energy consumption in 2006, a level the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) predicts will remain roughly constant through 2010. The International Energy Agency initially estimated China's 2008 oil demand growth at 430,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 5.8 percent from 2006, for a total of 7.9 million bpd. China met 46 percent of its total oil demand with imports in 2007, and this number is expected to rise to 47 percent in 2008."
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1395671/chinas_energy_mix_in_2008/

7,9 million bpd demand is about 10% of global supply. With such growth numbers, Chinese demand is projected to be on par with US in 2020. As global oil production going down in few years, ain't gonna happen, of course, without serious demand destruction in US.

[Disturbed]

10. As usual, not much will be done about energy until things get bad

It's the way politics works.

[Hannah Bell]

12. demand up ~9% since 2002, price up 600%.

How does that work, exactly?

Here's some more recent figures: chinese daily demand up ~14% since 2003, or ~3.5%/yr, on a base of 6% of world consumption.

14% of 6% of world demand = ~1% rise in world demand from China in 4 years, or .25%/yr.

If China produces 1/2 their own oil, as your cite says, the market demand increase is half that.

World demand rising ~1.48%/yr.

Where's the 600% push on supply?

http://www.haver.com/COMMENT/070316x.htm

"Global demand for oil reached 85.7 million barrels per day in 2007, a modest 1-percent increase over... 2006...the third straight year in which oil demand grew at an annual rate of less than 2 percent.

Despite the slow growth in demand, oil prices rose from just above $50 in January to near $100 at year’s end...

U.S. oil consumption was virtually unchanged for the third year in a row..

China increased its petroleum consumption by 5.5 percent.. It now accounts for nearly 9 percent of the world’s total oil use."

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5666

In other words, in 10 years Chinese consumption has gone from ~4.3% of world consumption to 8.6%: 100% increase.

Why have prices risen more than 600% in the same period? Total world consumption has risen ~15%.




Ennnnronnnn.....

[tama]

14. Capitalism 101

Exponentially rising prices ("speculators running wild" aka "invisible hand") in the global market is not the cause but the symptom of the underlying cause: demand surpassing supply - excelleng investment opportunity for the financial class. How hard can it be for you to understand that?

[Hannah Bell]

15. it's possible you can get your point across without the condescending

tone. how hard can it be for you to understand that?

BTW, speculative frenzy is considered a disorder of the "invisible hand," since it causes prices to be set inaccurately.

If you go beyond 101, you learn that.

[tama]

20. Sorry, not my purpose

This is not exactly rocket science, but quite simple common sense equation. I've been PO aware since 2002, gone through hell with psychological acceptance of it and its implications (father of two), seeing now the worst scenarios coming to reality, so denial (very understandable given our conditioning) beating common sense is still often frustrating to me even though I should know better and have more patience.

[tama]

9. Net oil exports

http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/

Not wanting to make more money since 2005 or no more stuff to export? Take a wild guess.

[Hannah Bell]

13. "Not wanting to make more money since 2005 or no more stuff to export? Take a wild guess"

It depends on whether you think high prices can be sustained when supply is increased, contra economic theory.

Currently production is short of demand, so somebody's using reserves.

If production were increased, in theory prices would drop: producers wouldn't get the high prices for the increased supply.

[tama]

16. sigh

"Currently production is short of demand, so somebody's using reserves."

This does not make any sense to me, maybe because of my poor English.

Supply (global exports) is going down since 2005 and as consequense "demand destruction" is happening in poorest countries (and social classes) that cannot afford it anymore. China etc. can keep on growing their share only by demand destruction happening elsewhere. Those news the US media does not air.

Production cannot be increased any more by demand-side factors because of physical reasons, that is what peak production means. And as the market becomes more PO aware, as is happening ow, the price rises take speed injection, especially the long term contracts - as has been happening this month.

[Hannah Bell]

18. In fact, demand has increased in "the developing countries".

it's where most of the demand growth is coming from.

sigh.

(condescension is SO unattractive, don't you think? if your english is so poor, however did you pick up on this unattractive idiomatic feature?)

[tama]

21. Devoping countries

are not a homogenous mass but lot of different countries in very different situations. Many are becoming failed states at increasing speed, especially in Africa, some are allready at that face of "demand destruction".

[Hannah Bell]

17. Which goes along with the wild media exaggeration of the

increases in Chinese demand.

Kinda like their story on rice: the Chinese are eating it all!

(Whoops, we had a record harvest, & chinese demand is down. But go on freaking out, & please stockpile, cause it increases profits.)

[tama]

23. I try not to

freak out, and don't - those days are over. It's those still in denial of reality that are freaking out with cognitive dissonance.

[old mark]

24. "Pull the other one, it's got bells on it".

Simon sez- saw that swine again this morning in the hearings-he acts like this is all out of control, market-driven, due to former 3rd world countries using more oil.
This man is so full of shit I can't believe it.

I wonder what his bonus will be for this year.

mark

[eallen]

26. The notion that demand is rising at 1.5% is a bit of a fallacy.

"Demand," as measured by how much oil actually is used, will never exceed supply. That is a law of physics, not of economics. If less oil is produced in 2018 than in 2008, "demand" as measured by actual use will decline, no matter how desperate people are for oil, and no matter how much they are willing to pay for it.

Economic demand is a hypothetical curve, of how much of a product would be consumed at different prices. Ceteris paribus, as the economists say. The fact that the world is consuming more oil this year, at $100/bbl, than it did 10 years ago, at $15/bbl, shows that economic demand has risen sharply, even though consumption, of necessity, has risen no faster than actual supply. The world would need to produce much more oil than it now does to supply all who would buy it at $15/bbl.

You're right, of course, that US demand is the lion's share. Comparing nation-by-nation production to consumption isn't relevant to global price, only to which nations are producers and which are consumers. Increased demand by oil producing nations is also raising the global price, because those nations then have less to sell in the global market. When an oil producing nation subsidizes domestic consumption, that acts also to increase the global price.

:hippie:

[Hannah Bell]

29. if demand is rising in excess of supply, we'd expect to see

lines at the pumps, oil-dependent businesesses shutting down, & similar signs of strain.

but not seeing it, here or elsewhere.

[eallen]

31. No. What markets produce in that circumstance is rising price.

In a competitive market, when demand rises faster than supply, the result is rising price. When the price is high enough, no one wants to buy more than the supply.

Shortages are the result of a pricing mechanism other than a competitive market.

:hippie:

[Hannah Bell]

35. If supply is actually short - which supposedly it is, as consumption

is currently higher than production - we'd expect both. When supply is short, you expect to see breaks in distribution, gas stations shut down because supplies didn't come in on time or got sold out too quick, marginal oil-dependent businesses shutting down, etc.

Price rises can be caused from short supply. They can also have other causes.

Price hikes will reduce consumption, but unless you investigate, there's no way to know if the price rise itself was caused by short supply.

[tama]

67. Yes

both. It is quite normal to have rising demand with both rising consumption (demand met by supply) and shortages (demand not met by supply) in same country.

[Strelnikov_]

32. Rationing by price. We are maintaining the supply=demand balance on the backs

of the third world.

They are being priced out of the market.

[Hannah Bell]

34. Let's see the evidence in decreased use statistics.

Here are some very poor countries for example.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cg&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cf&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=sv&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=bo&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=ci&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=ml&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en


I'm not seeing the trend you predict.

Short supply can cause rising prices. Other things can cause rising prices, too.

However, when supply is truly short, rising prices would be accompanied by the other things I mentioned: businesses closing for lack of oil, etc.

There is no such phenomenon.

The price has risen 600% since 2002, but there's no 600% short supply.

[Hannah Bell]

36. 1995-2005, China increased its consumption

by about 3500 barrels per day.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cn&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

In approximately the same period, the Russian Federation decreased its consumption by about 1666 barrels per day.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=ru&product=oil&graph=consumption&lang=en

not from being "priced out" (they produce oil), but because of the chaos of the post-USSR russian economy.

[tama]

49. 2005

Stats up to 2005 don't tell the story we are interested in, 2005-2008, where is "demand destruction" happening. The data is not available yet, or if it is, I don't know where to look. All I can share is some tidbits, like insider mentioning somewhere that demand has been dropping in South Africa and Philippines this year.

More tidbits collected on this peakoil.com thread: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic30369.html
wich gave link here:
http://www.energyshortage.org/

So don't try to claim there are no shortages and gas lines around the world. You just haven't looked hard enough.

[Hannah Bell]

52. prices have been rising steadily since 2002. so if your theory

is correct, we should have seen demand drop in the poorest countries first. it didn't. instead, we see the biggest drops in the richest countries in the years 2002-2005.

[Hannah Bell]

53. 2007 consumption growth: 0.7%.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_consumption_2007.pdf

biggest rises: the POOR continents of africa, central & s. america.

biggest drop: the RICH continent of n. america.

yet oil prices have continued jumping in 2008. The media tells us it's because of some huge demand growth. yet .7% is historically low demand growth.

conclusion: they're lying.

conclusion: there's so far no evidence for your theory that rising prices reduce the consumption of the poorest states first.

those are the latest numbers, since we're only 5 months into 2008.

<<don't try to claim there are no shortages and gas lines around the world.>>

show me the evidence.

[tama]

54. Interesting numbers

"Demand" is word that easily confuses, as it can mean both actual consumption (only 0.7% consumption growth from 2005 to 2006, most growth happening in producing countries - entering the peak plateau!) and demand that is not satisfied by supply (wants oil but cannot afford it).

Only the amount that is produced can be consumed. When there is demand ("want") for more than is available (supply), prices go up. China, India etc. wanting western standard of living: demand growth. With fixed (subsidiced) prices Chinese consumers are not affected by price increases and the state companies washed with dollars can keep on buying the stuff from world market: both demand and consumption growth. It's not a lie, you are confused.

Interesting to see that higher prices started to affect US consumption allready 2005-2006, putting it in the negative by 1.3%. That fall in consumption is expected to go steeper in the following years (2.1% drop in the first quarter 2008). US being the biggest and most wastefull consumer (besides some big producers) there is lot of slack to cut before it really starts to hurt. There are no physical shortages in US (yet), consumers just consume less.

Many of the poorest countries have fixed prices, so their consumption does not respond to higher prices as quickly as US with market prices. What we are seeing there now is physical shortages as their governements are becoming unable to buy and deliver oil to those in need: failed states.

[Hannah Bell]

57. yes, interesting numbers, & interesting how you blow smoke to

hide the fact that they don't support your thesis. it's funny. european consumption has been flat for years, starting well before the price run-up. n. american consumption slow before 2006 too.

[Hannah Bell]

58. There's documentation going back to the turn of the century

showing managed supply. Did you know there was a "peak oil" scare in the 1920s as well?

your "evidence" link doesn't make your point.

[tama]

60. My thesis?

I'm not interested in what strawmen you make up, I replied to your counterfactual claim that the shortages and gas lines are happening in poorest countries and stand by that, supported by evidence from the link offered. E.g:

"Nepalese officials Thursday warned the country was set to run out of petroleum products within a week as shortages hit commuters and motorists. The state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation said it would not be able to import more fuel without government support."

"Hundreds of people queued up at petrol pumps with their cars and motorcycles in the Nepali capital on Friday, as a state-run oil company warned they were running out of fuel stocks."

Europe has had a conspiracy against consumers by "speculators": governement tax. Demand destruction is complex issue and I was not aware US consumption had started to drop as early as it did. Know I know better, thanks.

[Hannah Bell]

61. 1 example of shortage in nepal doesn't prove your point, which

is: poor countries as a group should tend to reduce consumption when price rises, before richer states.

i gave you some statistics of many countries, showing this is not happening; rich countries as a group are reducing consumption; poorer states as a group are increasing consumption.

[tama]

63. Whatever

You no best what my point is.

You claimed there was no shortages anywhere, that false information has been corrected and hopefully you stop spreading it.
You claimed there is no demand-supply problem, that false information has been corrected and hopefully you stop spreading it.

[Hannah Bell]

64. i didn't claim there were no shortages anywhere; i said:

1. the demand in china doesn't explain the 600% price rise
2. world-wide demand is slow
3. there's no pattern of shortage, businesses closing, consumers unable to access fuel
4. there's no pattern of poor countries being selectively priced out of markets or reducing consumption

you haven't "corrected" anything. 1 swallow doesn't make a summer.

[tama]

65. You can't see the pattern

when you refuse to look at it - as you do with inane talk about one piece of evidence. Nobody is going to copy all the information from the link here, you have to click and read it. Should not be too difficult if you are interested in finding out what is actually happening and not only winning a debate.

As there are no conclusive numbers available for 2007 and 2008, collection of anecdotal evidence is all there is. Even if subject of interpretation, it sure as hell does not support the claim that there is no pattern of shortage.

[Hannah Bell]

68. i cAn see by the country stAtistics thAt it doesn't exist in sufficiency

to reduce nAtionAl consumption.

you cAn't mAke A cAse. if there wAs An ActuAl globAl shortAge it would show up in AggregAte stAtistics.

[tama]

55. "show me the evidence"

She replays to the link showing the evidence. In the case you really are that daft, here's the link again: http://www.energyshortage.org/

[Geek_Girl]

59. It's a bubble

It will pop hopefully soon.

[Solon]

39. The signs of strain are there, if you look for it...

Several local courier and trucking companies in my area are either trying to raise prices for deliveries, or are simply closing down. Even pizza delivery places are feeling the strain, and they are now having difficulty finding drivers, many are quitting because they can't make money.

Signs of strain do not have to include a "shock" type of thing, like the oil shocks of the 1970s, the reason is because the gasoline and diesel we have isn't really shortage, we are at a plateau, not on a downward slope, yet. Rather we are seeing demand outstrip supply, but not because supply is suffering a shortage, it just stopped growing. As a result, we are seeing rising prices, and indeed, actual consumption correlates directly with production. However, all this means is that sustained economic growth is now practically impossible, economic growth depends on cheap reliable energy, especially portable energy(oil), and that simply isn't the case anymore.

Right now we are seeing people change their habits, to reduce their gasoline purchases. Some are going to more fuel efficient vehicles, others are using public transportation where available, etc. Things aren't that bad...yet, but they are going to continue to get worse as time goes on, we may yet see lines going into gas stations, soon, but not necessarily tomorrow, most likely by next year people will start to panic, assuming something drastic doesn't happen between now and then.

[Hannah Bell]

41. Yes, I see the price strain. What I don't see is evidence of

material shortage, or unmet demand.

Posters are telling me the price increase IS the evidence.

I don't buy it. I'm open to being convinced, but telling me "the price increase proves it!" isn't enough.

Because price increases can have many causes, & price hikes concurrent with adequate supply are not uncommon. Enron is only the most famous recent example.

[Solon]

42. Of course price increases can have many different causes...

and having a flat supply plateau is only a part of that, that would be enough to account for some, if not most of the price increase, another factor is that many new oil field discoveries were overestimated, drastically. The speculators, over the past 5 years, were overoptimistic in their estimates of oil reserves in newly discovered fields, most of which don't contain even half what was estimated, this leads to the opposite reaction, pessimism.

This, combined with the peaking of many aging fields is leading to what we could call reality setting in, which is that basically people up the oil food chain are beginning to panic. Its a slight overreaction, in my estimation, and if I were to speculate, that probably accounts for about 10 to 20% of the price of oil right now, and gasoline as well.

There's also the denial factor as well, in many places in the world, such as Saudi Arabia, they flat out deny that they have reached peak, then again, they overestimated their own reserves by at least 50% since the 1980s, as have most oil producing countries. Allowable oil exports are based on "proved" reserves, but, since there are no independent audits, there is no way to determine if these nations are telling the truth. Its in their best interest to lie, and claim oil they don't have, for that increases how much they can export, and most people frankly don't believe them anymore, excepting the U.S. DOE.

Other factors include political instability in Iraq and Iran, some recent dry holes that were drilled, and fields that, once drilled, were found to not have nearly as much oil as people assumed. When an oil company invests millions or billions of dollars to basically drill a hole into a puddle of oil that will never make them money, the cost is absorbed by the customers somehow.

There are many factors at play, most of them related in some manner with the fact that the cheap stuff is becoming rarer and rarer. We are at the highest production levels that oil is ever going to achieve, its all downhill from here.

[Hannah Bell]

43. You can mention all those things, but the mention doesn't

prove causality.

So far as supply & peak oil, there's essentially no difference between this year, last year, five years ago.

Political instability? Is there a difference this year than 9/01? Or during Gulf War 1?

"costs are absorbed by the customers somehow." - perhaps, but costs are taken out before profits are accounted for, & profits have risen dramatically as well. Is there a bigger percent of dry holes being drilled this year than 5 yrs ago? I doubt it.


"there is no way to determine if these nations are telling the truth"

yes, it comes down to that. So you choose to believe, or not. My money - they don't have a good track record for truth or ethics. But if we were in imminent danger of running out of oil soon, I'd expect significant diversification into alternative energy, mass transit, efficient vehicles, peace treaties (US DOD biggest institutional user), & the like.

I'm not seeing it.

[Solon]

44. The oil is never going to run out...

That is a misconception right there, as I said, we are at the HIGHEST LEVELS OF OIL PRODUCTION, that means that a HUGE amount of oil, more than what was produced a decade ago, is being produced now. But oil prices were a lot cheaper back then, and you know why? Because production was able to keep up with consumption, in fact, they, more or less, correlate almost exactly. The amount of "surplus" oil that's not utilized was barely a half of a percent above actual consumption levels, that's how close the two are related.

What we are seeing now isn't oil running out, its oil becoming less economical as a fuel source, no more, no less. In addition to this, the fact is that the oil companies themselves have been cutting back on oil exploration and drilling for years now, simply because there are no more big finds anymore, and haven't been since the 1960s. They simply don't want to waste their money on that, and that most likely accounts for their dramatic rise in profits, for they are unethical, and I doubt they would pass that savings off onto customers.

The fact is that I'm not arguing with you about oil companies being unethical, I agree, and I also think they can lower the price of gasoline at the pump, but not to the levels they were at 10 years ago, its never going to be that cheap again, perhaps a dollar cheaper than now, but it will continue to rise from here on in. The question now is how fast its going to rise.

[Hannah Bell]

45. i didn't say oil won't run out. i have no idea that isn't based on

reports from sources that, as you acknowledge, i have no way of checking up on.

but i can look at consumption & production, which can be verified from a variety of angles & are harder to lie about.

we're being told a story about rising chinese demand causing a 600% price hike. i don't believe this story, & production & consumption figures don't seem to support it. there is no reason i can see that oil prices should be rising $1/day this year, rather than last year or the year before. Demand, the political situation - not much difference.

The one thing I can pick out that's substantially different is the collapse of the global housing bubble.

[tama]

51. You see

"So far as supply & peak oil, there's essentially no difference between this year, last year, five years ago."

Exactly! Supply not essentially changing but staying flat is what peak plateau means.

Imminent danger? It is so horrifying that denial is the only psychological and political solution. The driving force of civilization is not rationality but short sighted greed.

[Hydra]

27. You've stated it plainly

and your detractors attempt to make it confusing.

Nothing confusing about it- artificial shortage = HUGE profit when no alternatives are available.

The same thing happens if you choke off food or water supplies.

Kudos for speaking the truth.

[GreenEyedLefty]

70. Thank you for the plainest-spoken post on this thread.

I couldn't agree more. We're experiencing a 1970s redux.

[Hannah Bell]

28. am kick

[varelse]

30. K&R for the reality check

:kick:

[T.Ruth2power]

33. K&R n/t

[kerry-is-my-prez]

37. No one else whould have demand except for us and our gas guzzlers.

after all -aren't we the only ones who count in this world?

:sarcasm:

[gatorboy]

38. It's no different than what Enron did, manipulating the eletricity market in California.

Thanks to deregulation. And when the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power met with Cheney and his National Energy Development Task Force asking for price controls to protect consumers, they refused.

[earth mom]

40. Another Enron SCAM....

:puke:

[Blue Gardener]

46. Greg Palast article on oil and war profiteering

Interesting read...


http://www.gregpalast.com/obama%e2%80%99s-secret-war-profiteering-tax/#more-2026

[bullwinkle428]

50. GREAT article - worthy of an OP so it gets the attention it deserves!

:thumbsup:

[biermeister]

47. oil is valued in US dollars correct?

Hasn't the US dollar dropped in value, especially compared to the Euro since it was introduced? Part of the increased price we pay for gas is directly attributable to the devaluing of the US dollar. The rest is manipulation of supply & demand for increased profits by the oil companies.

[mainer]

48. Absolutely. The falling dollar is a large part of the problem.

It's not change in consumption per se but that we're now buying our oil with devalued cash.

[ThomWV]

66. Well, not really. Its reported in US dollars here but it trades in all currancies

Its not like the dollar is essential to the deal, you can buy all the oil you want in Yen for example and I'd guarantee you that you could get a couple of barrels for a Kugrand.

[taught_me_patience]

69. If you are convinced

buy some oil puts and make a fortune.