Arizona is now in recession, experts say

[Phx_Dem]

Betty Beard
The Arizona Republic
May. 9, 2008 12:00 AM

The Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas, as well as the state of Arizona, are in a recession, economists at Moody's Economy.com have declared.

The company first concluded several weeks ago that Arizona was in a recession and, in a separate report released Thursday, said that metro Phoenix is "firmly" in one.

Industries are shedding jobs, the housing market remains tumultuous, the mortgage-delinquency rate is rising faster than the national rate and credit conditions aren't likely to improve in the near term, says the Phoenix report written by Rebecca Seweryn, a senior economist with Moody's in West Chester, Pa.

To show how far the economic malaise has spread, she says that consumer-driven industries such as retail, leisure and hospitality are shedding jobs and remain under strain, despite a temporary boost from the Feb. 3 Super Bowl.

More at:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0509biz-recession0509.html

[HCE SuiGeneris]

1. No doubt in my mind. The malls are nearly deserted these days.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

6. I am sitting at the Barnes and Noble cafe at the Chandler Mall as we speak.

Usually I have to park in the hinterlands. I parked right near the front today. It's like tumbleweeds in here. And I'm goofing off at the mall right now (actually waiting for a client who is running late) because my business is in the doldrums.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

8. That is where I noticed it the most. The restaurants in the SW corner

are barely doing any business. I doubt they can be covering their rents there. It is very sad.

[blondeatlast]

9. Job losses in retail will hurt everyone. There's going to be precious few summer jobs

for teens this year.

There are 158 homes in my neigborhood association and no less than 17 are for sale--several more appear abandoned. It was completed last year...

[enid602]

2. Phoenix

I'm living proof, posting here at work while manning a silent phone. But the real problem here in PHX is that they have a VERY high number of people who leave each year, probably because of the heat. To maintain the growth we've experienced, we've relied heavily on migration from the Midwest. I read recently that the usual tide of Midwesterners migrating to Phoenix evaporated this year, as they can't sell their houses back home.

[Dreamer Tatum]

4. Absolutely

Ad the housing market there could take a very long time to recover, what with the enormous supply.

[Phx_Dem]

10. It's still a great place for business relocations from socal. nt

[enid602]

11. ca

But there's so much housing inventory and foreclosures in the Inland Empire and Central Valley of California. I think prospective homeowners and businesses will mover there instead.

[Indenturedebtor]

3. My job is based out of LA and my wife works for the state

Hopefully we can ride this one out! :hide:

[shain from kane]

5. Arizona, you know you're in a recession when the Mexicans return home.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

7. It's that, plus Sheriff Dickwad Arpaio and his posse of goons.

On the bright side, I think we're going to really find out if Americans won't do those "jobs that American's won't do".

[enid602]

12. AZ

I wonder how many 'American' jobs will be eliminated once all undocumented workers are deported. And how will this affect Arizona? Probably not the way they imagined.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

13. We're in for some scary times here.

What I meant when I said that was that we're going to see a lot of "Americans" lining up for the few remaining jobs that used to be done by undocumented workers. :scared:

[blondeatlast]

16. That's the best hope for the tourism industry, but I don't think that

our working class will quite be feeling that much pain by this autumn, when it starts to boom.

As goes tourism, so goes the state; it's our cash cow.

It doesn't look good, not at all--and a major north Scottsdale employer with an international market on a piece of very prime real estate (can't say whom) is moving out very soon; expect to hear about it by the end of the month...

I've lived here since the '70s when I was a child and I'm very, very worried. At least we have considerable equity in our home.

[enid602]

18. undocumented

What I meant is that every undocumented job probably supports jobs for 'Americans' as well. That is, once you deport the undocumented workers, whole businesses (employing "Americans") will shut down or relocate to areas that aren't so strict with undocumented workers.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

19. Possibly, but I think the mortgage and credit crisis is having a bigger impact.

If people were still buying stuff, then businesses would be catering to them even if it meant higher labor costs. I've never bought the "labor shortage" argument. In a truly tight labor market wages would be skyrocketing in all industries. But for the past several years they haven't even kept up with inflation.

[enid602]

21. PHX

I remember reading in 'Time' last year that certain counties in the US had an unusually high portion of the population working in housing-related industries; mortgage lenders, real estate, plumbing/electrical, construction, etc. Maricopa was among those counties with the highest %-age in these industries, and the only one with a very large population. My house is supposed to close escrow in 14 days, and although everything (according to my broker) is going well, I'm afraid the buyers will flake out at the last moment. On pins and needles.

[blondeatlast]

14. My guess (as a near native, well before the '80s) is that the tourism

business--now the largest biz we have by far, will hurt tremendously.

It's one of the last businesses that had a chance to survive owing to the fact that it is fueled by the wealthiest Americans and they still will come--but who will keep the golf courses and commons, bus the tables, and wash the sheets?

It's going to be an interesting autumn here. I know many people in the tourism and retail trade in Scottsdale and I'll tell you--

They are worried about the economy and the lack of (well, let's face it) cheap labor (although that isn't the way they wouold put it.

FYI, I KNOW them--I don't necessarily LIKE them...

[mrreowwr_kittty]

17. And we can, in large part, thank the myopic knuckledraggers in the Lege for it.

Nearly 2 decades of a Republican stranglehold on the government have defunded the schools and all the programs that would bring diverse industries into our state. Housing, tourism, and a little bit of high tech are not the formula for long-term economic health. Their answer to everything, and I mean everything, is "cut taxes".

Recently I attended a meeting with the 2 GOP Reps in my district. They were asked about the billion dollar deficit we currently have, which is threatening cuts to crucial services and state employees because we have a Constitutional imperative to have a balanced budget. Add to that these RW nitwits think the state should pay for capital expenditures (like schools) in full rather than borrowing or bonding. So this legislative braintrust responds to the question about the deficit with, guess what? Yep. We need more tax cuts. :banghead:

[blondeatlast]

20. Our state legislature is a monumental embarrassment.

I'm normally opposed to voter propositions (that's what we send the legislature to the Capital for) but in this state, it'
Seventy-five percent of our legislature thinks they represent Sun City regardless of where their districts are, I swear it.

[blondeatlast]

22. I have no idea why my response and sig line appears crossed out; does it to anyone else?

Just strange--I know I didn't type it that way! :shrug:

[mrreowwr_kittty]

24. You have to do [del] to get the strike through

That's weird. :shrug:

[blondeatlast]

26. Weirder still--now it's gone. Maybe it's the Hensley Henchmen...

:rofl:

[maui9002]

23. A story about a Republican candidate for the AZ legislature

I attended a function for a Republican candidate for the AZ legislature at my office about two years ago(I attend to see what they have to say and try to ask questions). This candidate, being from an affluent and conservative district, who the election. She stated she had signed the no new taxes pledge (that all Republican candidates are pressured to sign) and I asked her something akin to the following (keep in mind this was two years ago). "Given your no new taxes pledge, would you ever break that pledge if the state, which has to balance its budget per its own constitution, encountered very difficult economic times and had a funding shortfall of say, oh, $1 billion dollars (the amount that was projected by some two years ago)?" Her answer (paraphrased): "No, there is so much waste in government, I'd cut the wasteful programs and reduce taxes even further to stimulate the economy." Mind numbing ideological response; we'll, she's got her $1 billion dollar deficit, now it's all of us, particularly the less fortunate, who are going to pay.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

25. I swear Republican lawmakers have the easiest job in the world.

All they have to do is read off talking points from the Club for Growth and the Center for Arizona Policy (fundie nutjobs on social issues). Lather, rinse, repeat.

[goldcanyonaz]

15. No shit! We moved from Michigan to get jobs here as Engineers, we were wrong

I at least have a pretty good job at the moment, but it is a contract position and will end soon. There is no industry out here and with the clean air laws, there never will. Hoping that our investments pay off so we can retire w/in 5 years and move to Mexico where our US dollar can still buy the American dream.

[ChazII]

29. But isn't a good thing

to have clean air? Industry will only pollute.;)

[StarryNite]

27. I heard on the radio

earlier this week that one of the reasons the Mexicans aren't coming across as much is because the American dollar isn't worth as much. So many of them used to work here and send their earnings home to Mexico because the dollar could buy so much more down there. It's not buying as much now which is reducing their incentive to come here.

[FormerOstrich]

28. Plenty to invest in a wavepark, tho....

If you missed my thread dedicated on the topic, the Mesa WavePark is underway.....

The development is underway for the Mesa WavePark with Phase I promised to bring:

Surfing Wavepool
Whitewater, Paddle Sports and Training Facility
Scuba, Dive and Snorkeling Lagoon(s)
Resort Hotel-A minimum 400-room, AAA 4 Diamond and Mobile 4 Star resort.
Retail- A minimum of 200,000 sq. ft. of retail shops, exclusive of grocery, warehouse and similar stores.

Coming soon to 101 & 202 (Dobson Exit) existing home of Riverview Park.

Original Thread



YeeeeHawwww

[OhioChick]

30. If Arizona is in a recession...

I wonder what Ohio is in?