Food shortages - Wheat problems in Kansas?

[colorado thinker]

From George Ure's Urban Survival website:

"Food Shortages Growing?

An email from a reader in the Midwest causes me some concern:

"Last night at the daughter's horse riding lesson the price of horse feed came between my wife & the stable owner/riding instructor. One of her friends in Kansas said that his winter wheat looked great, but there was no wheat in the wheat plant heads (kernel/seed-I don't know the correct term). He reported that the grain miller that they normally use said that they are having trouble getting any wheat to prepare. Same thing from many Kansas wheat growers; plants look great, but no wheat to harvest. This is a family business that has been going since early 1900s. They made it through 2 world wars & the dust bowl. They are not sure if they can survive this year if they can't locate some wheat for processing. Nothing to mill, nothing to grind. That doesn't bode well for later in the year.

I couldn't find anything online about this, but the riding instructor is pretty mainstream & doesn't seem to be a conspiracy buff. She said that the lack of harvestable wheat, when the plants look normal, has never been seen before."

This report touches on something I have already started to work on for Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend. But, when I tell you there is growing urgency to starting a garden, I'm not a kidding..."

Wheat disease? GMO gone awry?

[aquart]

1. Is this related to the bees?

[colorado thinker]

2. Another possibility

I suppose. Whatever it is, it's very disturbing.

[Two Americas]

14. no

Wheat and other row crops and grains, representing 80% or more of human food intake, are not pollinated by bees.

[lapfog_1]

3. There are studies that show that gamma rays can affect

wheat germination.

Have we had any larger than average GRBs hit the earth in the last few months?

[annabanana]

20. to say nothing of Man in the Moon marigolds. . . . n/t

[lapfog_1]

23. Say what?

GRBs are Gamma Ray Bursts and happen all the time, sometimes pointed right at the earth. Should one happen nearby (like WITHIN our galaxy) and be aimed at us, that's it for all life on earth. All the way down to microbes, and, depending on the type of burst, possibly them too. Sterile planet with no water.

That gamma rays affect wheat germination is a bit of a surprise, but then we really don't understand gamma rays all that much. GRBs hit the earth every day, fortunately they are from distant galaxies. However, that could still cause the type of crop failure that is being observed. Especially if it is wide spread (entire planet).

[annabanana]

25. Here dear:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Effect_of_Gamma_Rays_on_Man-in-the-Moon_Marigolds

[femrap]

4. I read today....I think

one of the articles from CarolynBaker.org....that there is Leaf Rust in the wheat of Kansas and Oklahoma. There is nothing that can overcome this. In fact, it was a report out of Kansas State in Manhatten, KS.

Wheat rust started in Africa....Angola, I believe. Winds blew the rust Pakistan....and now it has found its way here.

This is not good at all.

And I am planting a garden this spring...lots of squash.

[colorado thinker]

7. Look up "Amaranth"

Used for years in South America and Africa the seeds produce a gluten-free high protein flour. It grows like a weed here in Colorado, one variety is commonly known as pigweed. I'm planting some right away.

[Ilsa]

16. Special recipes are needed for using gluten-free flours. Fortunately,

I have some practice at using recipes designed for persons with celiac disease, even though I don't have that. xanthan gum is handy to have.

[femrap]

18. Good idea! nt

[scarletwoman]

5. "Wheat disease? GMO gone awry?" And Aquart's "Bees?" Oh, man, we are SO fucked!

:(

[aquart]

6. How long can one store dry pasta?

Just asking before I go shopping.

[scarletwoman]

8. A long time if it's in a completely dry airtight container. (nt)

[colorado thinker]

11. I believe you are right.

[SpiralHawk]

9. The curse of the profit-mad Agri-Giants ?

Bringing the world a genetically mutant and sterile material reality.

[colorado thinker]

10. Here's another story about rust

From Agweb.com:

"Leaf Rust Becoming Problem in Kansas Wheat
4/30/2008
AgWeb.com Editors

The risk of significant yield loss in Kansas wheat fields due to leaf rust and other foliar diseases has increased dramatically this past week, according to Kansas State University Research and Extension.

Leaf rust was discovered in commercial fields and variety demonstration plots in Sumner County in south-central Kansas on April 24th, wheat plant pathologist Erick DeWolf said in a press release. The leaf rust occurred with an incidence of less than 10% and with severity of less than 2% in both the Jagger and Jagalene varieties.

Leaf rust has also been observed in northern Oklahoma where the disease was slightly more advanced. Leaf rust was observed at trace levels on the Overley variety near Stillwater in north-central Oklahoma, but the disease has not yet been detected in fields planted to Overley wheat in Kansas.

Powdery mildew has also increased significantly during this past week, KSU Extension reported, and was also cited in Sumner county. The severity of powdery mildew in the area was greater than 25%, which can result in significant yield loss.

The growth stages of wheat in the southern counties of Kansas range from jointing to early heading. The current presence of even low levels of leaf rust and severe powdery mildew suggests that potential for yield loss is significant. Yield losses of greater than 35% can be expected if the leaf rust and powdery mildew are not controlled with fungicides. "

[truedelphi]

12. Can you clarify what I don't understand

Does the rust disease give you a plant that looks okay appearance wise but lacks the wheat berry??

To me it sounds like some GMO nightmare.

[colorado thinker]

17. Sorry

I don't know anything about wheat rust, never heard of it before the last couple of months. It didn't sound like anyone knew what was causing the wheat to grow without kernels in the first article I saw.

[enlightenment]

27. Wikipedia has a fairly understandable description

of Wheat Leaf Rust.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_leaf_rust

Apparently, severe infection can cause the grain to shrivel. Perhaps that's what they mean?

This site, however, makes it clear that Leaf Rust is very obvious, so I don't know why they'd say the plant looked healthy.

http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/path-ext/factSheets/Wheat/Wheat%20Leaf%20Rust.asp

[truedelphi]

28. I'm thinking that it has to do with the GMO factor.

As you say in your post, the Rust disease affects the plant's appearance, and the observation that was made was that the plants appeared to be healthy.

Also, maybe it has to do with the bees. I will be talking to folks I know who have bees and see what they think. No pollinisation equals no fruit, right? And the fruit of a wheat stalk is the wheat berry.

[WheelWalker]

35. It's the elevated CO2.

[Yavapai]

42. Maybe it is from over fertilization due to all the

bullshit coming out of the primary campaigns???

[truedelphi]

43. Good thinking. I sort of think of Kansas as being out in the prairies where

Certainly there is plenty of good clean air. So what accounts for all the CO2??

Are there coal burning plants??

Incinerators??

Or just stuff blown across the country from San Francisco and its seven million people, or LA and its eight million??

Not disputing your theory - just need to know why we don't even have clean air out in the Great Plains any more.

[NickB79]

41. As far as I know, there is no GM wheat on the market now

There are experimental trials going on, but no widespread plantings of anything other than standard wheat varieties.

[TheCentepedeShoes]

19. I lived in Sumner Co

as a kid back in the 50's. Bunch of folks we new then were wheat farmers. Lived in Kay Co, OK too, just across the line. Our house was bordered on 3 sides by wheat fields.

[blm]

30. Rust did a number on alot of the soy fields in the Southeast not too long ago.

,

[aquart]

13. LINK?

[colorado thinker]

15. Here's the article on rust

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=142714

[kestrel91316]

21. Here is your task, DUers, should you choose to accept it:

Learn to grow A calorie crop suitable to your region (just one). And start growing it to get the experience under your belt. I'm not talking acres of crops, but a back yard test plot.

Examples include: wheat, oats, corn, rye, barley, millet, amaranth, quinoa (all grains); potatoes, turnips, Jerusalem artichokes, sweet potatoes (root crops).

There are others, but these come most easily to mind. You can Google them to find out everything known to man about each of them. Encyclopedia of Country Living and Small-Scale Grain Raising are excellent reference texts.

Learn how to do this before you MUST do it in order to eat. Teach someone else how to do it. Do your homework. I did it a few years ago with hard red winter wheat. If I still had my yard, I'd be trying my hand at millet, which is drought-tolerant and likes hot weather.

[lapfog_1]

24. We just put in a very large garden

and built a homemade "shade house" around it (that was a lot of hard work).

In AZ, the sun can shrivel up plants in a day if you aren't careful. We planted squash, tomatoes, radishes, beans, and even a couple of rows of corn. We also have edible flowers hanging in baskets in the shade house... and we installed a automatic irrigation system to water everything (we have an artesian well at our property).

We will be freezing and canning veggies all summer, as well as eating them. Next year... I'm thinking of at least 2 to 3 acres of shade houses and irrigation systems.

[kestrel91316]

26. Sadly, I know all about that intense sun. I routinely lost a significant

portion of my tomato and bell pepper crops to the sun - even with shade cloth they would literally melt on the plant from the searing heat.

A lath house or ramada would have been nice, but I rented the house and didn't want to have a big construction project.......

[Two Americas]

22. before we get carried away with speculation

US Cash Grain Outlook: Weather Impacting Wheat Market

Dry weather dominated the U.S. grain belt again Wednesday, aside from a few light rain showers associated with an area of low pressure situated over the northern Plains.

"The winter wheat crop in the Plains is starting to break dormancy, and crop condition ratings this week show that the crop is not in very good shape," said Freese-Notis Weather. "The worst ratings are in Texas, where the crop this week was rated at 60% poor to very poor. While it was a very wet winter in much of the Midwest, it was very dry in Texas ... their 11th-driest winter in 113 years." Dry weather last fall also led to poor establishment of the HRW wheat crop in Kansas and Oklahoma, where more than 20% of all acreage was also rated in poor to very poor condition this week.

http://www.fxstreet.com/futures/news/article.aspx?StoryId=0ffe3502-2a66-4ffa-926f-da8e80075f51

Wheat Market Outlook

Prospects of a large world wheat crop and generally favorable crop development conditions continue to weigh on the wheat market. Prices in April for the July 2008 contract traded at a high of $10.50 on April 4 and recorded the lowest close for the month on the 30th at $8.42. The price of this contract fell by about 20% for the month.

http://agecoext.tamu.edu/resources/market-outlook/wheat.html

Record world wheat production forecast

Wheat is a key driver of global food inflation. The prospect of a large increase in global wheat production this year could help to prevent further food tensions in several regions of the world, which have been severely hit by sharp rises in the cost of staple foods such as rice and bread.

Several factors have triggered the current food crisis: unfavourable weather conditions leading to poor harvests in major producing countries, steady international demand, the increased use of crops for biofuels, etc.

As a result, wheat prices reached a record high above $13 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in late February. According to the first edition of the Rabobank's Soft Commodities Monthly Report (April 2008), world wheat prices have now fallen by more than 40 per cent at $8.01 a bushel in early trade on 25 April, their lowest level since November.

Rabobank reports that world wheat crops appear to be in good condition at this stage of the season, particularly in the EU-27, Black Sea and soft red winter wheat areas of the US.

http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/news/ng.asp?n=84950-wheat-prices-harvest

Wheat Outlook: Winter Crop Conditions

Winter wheat conditions are rate less favorable this year than a year ago at this time. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Crop Progress for April 7 rate 21 percent of the crop poor to very poor and 45 percent good to excellent. A year ago 10 percent was rated poor to very poor and 64 percent good to excellent. Generally, the soft red winter wheat producing States have better ratings than the hard red winter States.

However, crop ratings have improved on the Southern Plains since February, but not on the Central Plains. In February, 61 percent of the Texas crop was rated poor to very poor. By April, the share of the crop rated poor to very poor had dropped to 47 percent. Similarly for Oklahoma, the share of the crop rated poor to very poor dropped from 29 percent in February to 19 percent in April.

In February, 25 percent of the Kansas crop was rated poor to very poor. By April, the share of the crop rated poor to very poor was 22 percent. Conditions are much better in Nebraska, however, as the share of the crop rated poor to very poor rose from 7 percent in February to 9 percent in April. Crop conditions have continued to decline for Colorado, with 33 percent of the crop rated poor to very poor in April compared with 30 percent last month at this time.

Source: USDA
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Wheat_Content.asp?ContentID=212729

WHEAT: Trend: Short Term Down - Long Term Down

After falling to new lows for the move three days in a row, the wheat market bounced back on Friday and the July KW was actually up 9 - cents for the week. This could be the sign of a turnaround, but I think I will need to see some significant follow through before I am convinced. A move above $9.00 is probably a selling opportunity.

Crop condition ratings were back up to 45% Good to Excellent in Kansas, which is average. We typically see a seasonal decline in the condition ratings, so I would look for steady to lower in Monday's report. With all the heat and wind that we had in western Kansas, I can't imagine having an improvement in this part of the world. I think the trade is still focus on the idea that harvest is coming soon and that supplies will be replenished. We just haven't seen much buying interest.

There shouldn't be too much downside potential in the wheat because it is in jeopardy of becoming a feed grain. That is especially true for the soft wheat, which is suffering from both soft futures and poor basis levels.

Wheat: Market Outlook from the USDA

Projections for U.S. Wheat Supply and Use

The long-term projections for U.S. wheat for 2008-17 were heavily influenced by wheat's slow yield gains, declining competitiveness relative to the production of other domestic crops, and increased global competition.

Wheat yields continue slowly rising. Wheat yield is projected at 42.5 bushels per acre for 2008, based on national-level and State-level trend analyses over the past two decades. This is below the 2003 record yield of 44.2 bushels per acre, but above the yields for 2005-07.

Yield growth projected for 2008-17 for wheat, corn, and soybeans reflects differing genetic gains mentioned earlier. Wheat yields are projected to rise by 0.3 bushels per year over the 10-year period. In contrast, corn and soybean yields are projected to rise 2.0 bushels and 0.45 bushels per year, respectively.

Wheat plantings expected to fall with decline in competitiveness. Wheat plantings are projected to rise to 65.0 million acres in 2008 because of a sharp increase in expected net returns (revenue minus variable costs) from 2007, reflecting an increase in the farm price (prices received by producers). Planting incentives reflect expected net returns from the marketplace (expected farm price times projected yield minus variable costs). The projected farm price is above the loan rate for the entire projection period, so loan benefits do not enter into net returns or influence plantings.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat/2008baseline.htm

[pitohui]

29. crop failures are a risk of farming, and it was ever thus

people who never heard of "rust" (not exactly a rare category of diseases) are shocked that some years are good and some years are bad for farming, panic now and avoid the rush :eyes:

(don't mean to roll eyes at you, twoamericas, but more at some of the other posts that seem to be all "sky is falling" crapola)

[Two Americas]

32. thanks

:toast:

[Mabus]

31. It's been almost 30 years since I drilled wheat but it sounds like loose or covered smut

Here's a link to a pdf from Oklahoma State that talks about smut problems in Kansas: http://entoplp.okstate.edu/ddd/diseases/bunts-smuts.pdf

[truedelphi]

33. Also - isn't it rather early in the year to be milling wheat in Kansas??

O'm not sure that it would be forming wheat berries this early - it's just the first weekend in May.

Even winter wheat, from what I remember by living in the Midwest, it was late May or June when Winter wheat would get milled.

[Mabus]

38. I think you can mill wheat any time of year

When I hear "mill" I think about the processing of wheat into another form by various means like grinding. Once wheat is taken to a grainery it is stored and can be transported to be milled at any time.

Here's what I remember from my farming days. We would drill wheat around September. You don't "plant" wheat you drill it. You hook up the special box and the seeds are moved by an auger into a tube and then dropped into the slots (in the dirt) that are created by the contraption (seed box and drilling head) and then the seeds are covered up. You "drill" wheat and "plant" corn. If someone says they "plant" wheat you know they don't have a lot of experience on a Kansas farm.

When you harvest wheat is dependent on a number of factors like what kind of wheat it is and where your fields are. Generally wheat harvest crews will start in Texas and move northward. This follows the pattern of when wheat is ready to be harvested. I lived in south central Kansas (Hutchinson/Nickerson area) on a farm in the early 80's. It was my then-boyfriend's family who were farmers and we lived the farm near them for almost two years. The years we were together and we didn't live in Hutch we would go visit his parents several times a year to help around the farm. They rented ground to farm and they had some of their own. They grew hard red winter wheat, milo, barley, oats and corn.

In the area we lived in we would harvest wheat, usually in June, depending on the weather conditions. You have to wait until the ground and the wheat are ready. You don't want to go into a muddy field because you can get the combine stuck. Also, wheat can mature at different rates within the same field. This is because of environmental factors. If you drive by a wheat field you'll notice that the outer edges are different heights and color (maturity) than the rest of the field. You also don't want to harvest when the grain is still green because the moisture content is important and is a consideration when you take the wheat to the grainery. Too much or too little moisture can lower the amount of money you get for the wheat. And, because moisture content is important, you don't harvest first thing in the morning. You want the sun to burn off the dew. Rather mornings are spent making sure the combine, the headers and the hauling trucks are in good condition. Harvesting starts in the mid-morning to late morning and can go until late (again depending on the weather, humidity, etc.) fwiw, mornings during harvest time was when I learned how to do stuff like remove tires from rims, mount tires, check engines, checking/cleaning the headers and doing routine "auto" mechanics. I was given a lot of hands on training on to identify engine problems and fix or rig them after a clogged filter shut down a combine I was driving and I had to walk several miles back to a house (in the days long before cell phones) to get help. It also put us behind schedule.

As for the wheat, the berries should be forming or already formed by now. Again this is dependent on where you are, what kind of wheat you're growing and how fast the wheat is maturing. If wheat is infected with something like rust or smut then it affects the berries as they are forming and stunts their growth. Like other crops, the damage may not always be apparent by just a cursory look. Sometimes you have to do close inspections of the crops to make sure they are forming correctly or to be able to identify other problems. Have you ever bought corn at the farmer's market that looks good but once you rip open the husk you find out that the kernels on the end weren't pollinated and are stunted or malformed? I can't tell you how many hours are spent on the farm driving/walking through fields doing spot inspections checking for things like diseases and insect infestations. You also have to be careful as the season progresses and a crop is maturing not to set a field on fire with a truck/car engine during inspections. I learned this lesson the hard way. :eyes:

[WheelWalker]

36. Elevated CO2.

[Mabus]

39. Good thing Gov. Sebelius (KS) vetoed the coal plants

She's vetoed three of them. This last time the veto was primarily based on concerns surround the climate crisis (the legislature upheld her veto last week). She's the first governor to veto a power plant (in this case, coal) based upon CO2 emissions. The coal plants were also vetoed because 85% of the power was to have been shipped out of state. She didn't see why we had to pollute Kansas and contribute to CO2 emissions if the citizens of Kansas weren't going to benefit. Instead, she's appointed an advisory committee that is working with a national group (that is working with other states) to find clean alternatives.

We've got some vast areas where wind turbines might be utilized and we've also got plenty of space for things like solar panels. Despite the bad press we've gotten from things like our resident nut jobs (for example, Phred Phelps and his church of hate) and our past state boards of education, we're actually pretty progressive in our environmental thinking because we have a good combination of environmentalists, farmers and sportsman. The farmers and sportsmen have seen environmental changes that have been deleterious to their respective interests. As a result they've been working with environmentalists to improve the environment.

I recently moved from Kansas to the DC area. When I was working with environmental groups in Kansas we got a lot of support from the sportsmen. They joined us in lobbying the legislature and agencies over when testing for TMDL's was done. The farmers joined us in a number of fights ranging from highway projects to drainage issues that worsened because of development too close to their farms.

[WheelWalker]

34. Elevated atmospheric levels of CO2. Healthy vegetative growth...but,

no reproductive vigor. You read it here first.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Hmmm I remember that from my High School biology Class

many, and I mean this MANY years ago.

That said, you are ONTO something

And as I said in the rice crisis... that was the leading edge

[truedelphi]

40. Thank you, VI!